External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We estimate minimal impact on CoF (1-3bps) and earnings (0.4-1.5%) on SOE banks after raising their USD TD rates to 4%.</li><li>We see downside risks from deposit dollarization and weaker Rupiah, although the plan could also benefit domestic liquidity and economy.</li><li>Amid the bottoming liquidity, we retain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our LT stock pick as we remain cautious on asset quality.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We estimate minimal impact on CoF (1-3bps) and earnings (0.4-1.5%) on SOE banks after raising their USD TD rates to 4%.We see downside risks from deposit dollarization and weaker Rupiah, although the plan could also benefit domestic liquidity and economy.Amid the bottoming liquidity, we retain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our LT stock pick as we remain cautious on asset quality.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The Rp200tr state funds placed in selected banks could potentially lower CoF by 1-16bps, if no loan growth target is required.</li><li>Otherwise, we see potential downside in NIM and asset quality, especially if economic growth remains stagnant post the stimulus.</li><li>Amid the bottoming liquidity, we retain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our LT stock pick as we remain cautious on asset quality.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Rp200tr state funds placed in selected banks could potentially lower CoF by 1-16bps, if no loan growth target is required.Otherwise, we see potential downside in NIM and asset quality, especially if economic growth remains stagnant post the stimulus.Amid the bottoming liquidity, we retain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our LT stock pick as we remain cautious on asset quality.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: Liquidity Support, Asset Quality Risk: A Double-Edged Sword (NEUTRAL)

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Foreign flows reversed; Poultry and Metals outperformed. After four consecutive weeks of inflows (US$680mn), foreign equity flows reversed to -US$254mn, partly driven by last week’s street protests, despite signs of deescalation this week.</li><li>Foreign investors have continued to de-risk on largecap banks, namely BBCA (-US$195mn w-w, YTD: US$1.4bn) and BMRI (- US$45mn w-w, YTD: US$814mn).</li><li>Despite this, JCI managed to close +0.5% on the week, supported by metals sectors (ANTM +12% w-w, AMMN +3%, MDKA +6%), and conglomerate groups stocks (+DSSA +7% w-w, EMTK +7%, SMMA). ttractive at 11.9x P/E (-1.5SD to 5-year mean), following underperformance (-14% YTD).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Foreign flows reversed; Poultry and Metals outperformed. After four consecutive weeks of inflows (US$680mn), foreign equity flows reversed to -US$254mn, partly driven by last week’s street protests, despite signs of deescalation this week.Foreign investors have continued to de-risk on largecap banks, namely BBCA (-US$195mn w-w, YTD: US$1.4bn) and BMRI (- US$45mn w-w, YTD: US$814mn).Despite this, JCI managed to close +0.5% on the week, supported by metals sectors (ANTM +12% w-w, AMMN +3%, MDKA +6%), and conglomerate groups stocks (+DSSA +7% w-w, EMTK +7%, SMMA). ttractive at 11.9x P/E (-1.5SD to 5-year mean), following underperformance (-14% YTD).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the week – Metal sector vs. gold price

<ul><li>The 2026 budget balances fiscal prudence with acceleration growth, prioritizing 8 national agendas, aiming for 5.4% GDP growth.</li><li>Revenue target projects 9.8% growth, driven by higher tax collections requiring improvement in tax collection and reforms.</li><li>The fiscal plan moderates deficit to 2.48% in 2026, controlling debt supply while conservative yield assumptions provide fiscal buffer.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The 2026 budget balances fiscal prudence with acceleration growth, prioritizing 8 national agendas, aiming for 5.4% GDP growth.Revenue target projects 9.8% growth, driven by higher tax collections requiring improvement in tax collection and reforms.The fiscal plan moderates deficit to 2.48% in 2026, controlling debt supply while conservative yield assumptions provide fiscal buffer.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy: The 2026 Proposed Budget: Building Up Momentum

<ul><li>Liquidity shows early signs of improvement as SRBI yields fall and IndONIA drops; fiscal disbursement expected to lead recovery further.</li><li>BI is likely to maintain its dovish stance and have time to assess before proceeding with further rate cuts, given current liquidity conditions.</li><li>US tariff shift could shield Indonesia’s exports, but cheap imports threaten domestic market requiring policies intervention.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Liquidity shows early signs of improvement as SRBI yields fall and IndONIA drops; fiscal disbursement expected to lead recovery further.BI is likely to maintain its dovish stance and have time to assess before proceeding with further rate cuts, given current liquidity conditions.US tariff shift could shield Indonesia’s exports, but cheap imports threaten domestic market requiring policies intervention.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy: The Tailwinds and Trade-Off

Indonesia

Bank Syariah Indonesia is a state-owned Islamic bank in Indonesia, offering a comprehensive range of commercial banking products and services to individuals and corporations, including savings, financing, investment, and digital banking. It operates through segments such as Corporate Banking, Commercial Banking, Institutional Relation, Retail Banking, and Treasury Banking and Head Office. The bank was officially founded on February 1, 2021, as a result of a merger between three state-owned sharia banks. Its headquarters are located in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Bank Syariah Indonesia (BRIS IJ)

Banks: USD Deposits and IDR Liquidity...

Amid the bottoming liquidity, we retain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our LT stock pick as we remain cautious on asset quality.

BRI Danareksa Research

Banks: Liquidity Support, Asset Quality Risk: A Double-Edged Sword (NEUTRAL)

Amid the bottoming liquidity, we retain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our LT stock pick as we remain cautious on asset quality.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the week – Metal sector vs. gold price

Foreign investors have continued to de-risk on largecap banks, namely BBCA (-US$195mn w-w, YTD: US$1.4bn) and BMRI (- US$45mn w-w, YTD: US$814mn).

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy: The 2026 Proposed Budget: Building Up Momentum

The 2026 budget balances fiscal prudence with acceleration growth, prioritizing 8 national agendas, aiming for 5.4% GDP growth.

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy: The Tailwinds and Trade-Off

Liquidity shows early signs of improvement as SRBI yields fall and IndONIA drops; fiscal disbursement expected to lead recovery further.

BRI Danareksa Research

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