Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Dian Swastatika Sentosa / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 constituent change for the IDX30 Index, and 5 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 30 April.</li>
<li>Following their inclusion on the High Shareholding Concentration list, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dian-swastatika-sentosa-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15281:1" rel="noopener">Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ)</a> will be deleted from the LQ45 and IDX80 indices.</li>
<li>While the size of the passive AUM is small, a lot of active funds use the LQ45 Index as a benchmark and could sell BREN/DSSA before the global index trackers.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 constituent change for the IDX30 Index, and 5 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 30 April.
Following their inclusion on the High Shareholding Concentration list, Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) and Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) will be deleted from the LQ45 and IDX80 indices.
While the size of the passive AUM is small, a lot of active funds use the LQ45 Index as a benchmark and could sell BREN/DSSA before the global index trackers.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BREN and DSSA Deleted from Local Indices

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-steel-mfg-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16195:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Steel (5423 JP)</a>'s cost are up, but Japan's still a net scrap exporter, with enough scrap to keep Japan scrap prices low enough to keep electric arc furnaces competitive.</li>
<li>I can't see FIRB stomping on the Kestrel  deal. Perhaps behavioural remedies, where possible, such that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4145:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (YAL AU)</a> doesn't divert the majority of the exports to China.</li>
<li>IDX has considerable work to do to address transparency, investability, and credibility. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barito-pacific-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8851:1" rel="noopener">Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ)</a> and 64.7%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a> are both uninvestable.</li>
</ul>



Tokyo Steel (5423 JP)'s cost are up, but Japan's still a net scrap exporter, with enough scrap to keep Japan scrap prices low enough to keep electric arc furnaces competitive.
I can't see FIRB stomping on the Kestrel  deal. Perhaps behavioural remedies, where possible, such that Yancoal Australia (YAL AU) doesn't divert the majority of the exports to China.
IDX has considerable work to do to address transparency, investability, and credibility. Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ) and 64.7%-held Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) are both uninvestable.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Tokyo Steel, Yancoal, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Barito Pacific/Renewables

<ul>
<li>As part of a new transparency drive - predicated on MSCI concerns - Indonesia's IDX flagged nine companies with a high shareholder concentration. All with lofty outperformances to match.</li>
<li>The list included Indo's third largest market cap company, coal producer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dian-swastatika-sentosa-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15281:1" rel="noopener">Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ)</a>, with an eye-watering trailing PER of 136x. DSSA is backed by the Widjaja family.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a>, Indo's second-largest company, also made the cut. I've previously flagged this bubble stock in <a href="https://skr.ma/P9wjq" target="_blank" rel="noopener">StubWorld: Barito Renewables (BREN IJ) - This Too Shall Pop.</a>
</li>
</ul>


As part of a new transparency drive - predicated on MSCI concerns - Indonesia's IDX flagged nine companies with a high shareholder concentration. All with lofty outperformances to match.
The list included Indo's third largest market cap company, coal producer Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ), with an eye-watering trailing PER of 136x. DSSA is backed by the Widjaja family.

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ), Indo's second-largest company, also made the cut. I've previously flagged this bubble stock in StubWorld: Barito Renewables (BREN IJ) - This Too Shall Pop.



IDX's Bubble Stocks: Enhanced Reporting Regs Partly Address Investability Concerns

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jakarta-stock-exchange-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22914:1" rel="noopener">Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX)</a> fell further as there was no resolution yet with MSCI. </li>
<li>Some of the large-cap banks became ATMs for foreign investors, yet the local passive pensions are buying. Low floaters like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a>could still be problematic. </li>
<li>The risk is clear; the upside potential is also clear. Status quo means share prices will rebound. Some of the banks are paying high dividend. </li>
</ul>


As expected, Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX) fell further as there was no resolution yet with MSCI. 
Some of the large-cap banks became ATMs for foreign investors, yet the local passive pensions are buying. Low floaters like Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)could still be problematic. 
The risk is clear; the upside potential is also clear. Status quo means share prices will rebound. Some of the banks are paying high dividend. 


<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index rebalance ended on 31 December. The changes should be announced the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 30 January.</li>
<li>We highlight 3 potential inclusions and 3 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. Depending on the index committee discretion, the actual number of changes could be lower/higher.</li>
<li>The impact on the forecast inclusions is not very high but the impact on the forecast deletion is much higher.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index rebalance ended on 31 December. The changes should be announced the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 30 January.
We highlight 3 potential inclusions and 3 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. Depending on the index committee discretion, the actual number of changes could be lower/higher.
The impact on the forecast inclusions is not very high but the impact on the forecast deletion is much higher.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2026): Identifying Potential Index Changes

Indonesia

PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk is an Indonesian holding company that generates and sells power through geothermal and wind resources. It is a leading clean energy infrastructure company focused on providing cleaner and lower emission energy. The company was founded in 2018 and is based in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BREN and DSSA Deleted from Local Indices

Barito Renewables and Dian Swastatika Sentosa are deletions from local indices this week. Passive tracking AUM is small but active managers use the...

Brian Freitas

Last Week In Event SPACE: Tokyo Steel, Yancoal, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Barito Pacific/Renewables

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

IDX's Bubble Stocks: Enhanced Reporting Regs Partly Address Investability Concerns

Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ) and Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) are both uninvestable.As is Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ). IDX still has...

David Blennerhassett

Indo Downgrade: Update

Jakarta Stock Exchange Index falls as MSCI resolution remains unresolved, foreign investors sell while local pensions buy, share prices expected...

Henry Soediarko

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2026): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We highlight 3 sets of changes for the LQ45 in January. The forecast adds have surged while the forecast deletes have dropped. Historically, adds...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BREN and DSSA Deleted from Local Indices

Barito Renewables and Dian Swastatika Sentosa are deletions from local indices this week. Passive tracking AUM is small but active managers use the...

Brian Freitas

Last Week In Event SPACE: Tokyo Steel, Yancoal, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Barito Pacific/Renewables

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

IDX's Bubble Stocks: Enhanced Reporting Regs Partly Address Investability Concerns

Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ) and Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) are both uninvestable.As is Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ). IDX still has...

David Blennerhassett

Indo Downgrade: Update

​Jakarta Stock Exchange Index falls as MSCI resolution remains unresolved, foreign investors sell while local pensions buy, share prices expected...

Henry Soediarko

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2026): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We highlight 3 sets of changes for the LQ45 in January. The forecast adds have surged while the forecast deletes have dropped. Historically, adds...

Brian Freitas

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BREN and DSSA Deleted from Local Indices

Jakarta Stock Exchange Index falls as MSCI resolution remains unresolved, foreign investors sell while local pensions buy, share prices expected...