Pan-Asia Equity Bottom-up, Wickhams Hill

Lloyd Moffatt

Pan-Asia Equity Bottom-up

Equity Bottom-Up

Cisarua Mountain Dairy / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>A deeper look into Cisarua Mountain Dairy – Cimory (CMRY IJ) since we initially highlighted the deal in Issue 8 revealed that is business is not nearly attractive as it appeared</li><li>Cosco’s spin-off of liquor distribution subsidiary Keepers (KEEPR PM) has received strong investor demand following a move to reprice the offering 25% below the low end of the original range</li><li>Robinsons Land (RLC PM) announced a P3bn buyback that’s equivalent to around 3% of their market cap</li></ul>

A deeper look into Cisarua Mountain Dairy – Cimory (CMRY IJ) since we initially highlighted the deal in Issue 8 revealed that is business is not nearly attractive as it appearedCosco’s spin-off of liquor distribution subsidiary Keepers (KEEPR PM) has received strong investor demand following a move to reprice the offering 25% below the low end of the original rangeRobinsons Land (RLC PM) announced a P3bn buyback that’s equivalent to around 3% of their market cap

Wickhams Hill Research | Under-The-Radar Issue 12

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<p>Indonesia's recovery from the COVID-19 induced pandemic is within a few months away as the inoculation rate in Jakarta has reached 57%, although the rest of the nation's inoculation rate is still at 15%.  </p>
<p>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blue-bird-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19482:1" rel="noopener">Blue Bird (BIRD IJ)</a> previously suffered from the Airport Express that took the former's market share in that route, the recent collaboration with PT KAI (National Train of Indonesia) allows Bluebird taxis to be included when customers are booking train tickets, creating a new distribution channel for Bluebird besides its existing partnership with Gojek. </p>
<p>The downside of owning Bluebird's share right now is quite limited as the mobility lockdown is only months from over thus owning Bluebird right now can be likened to have a long position on a call option. Its share price should trade at least at book value or even higher at 1.2x PBR, implying a potential return of between 76% to 126%. </p>

Indonesia's recovery from the COVID-19 induced pandemic is within a few months away as the inoculation rate in Jakarta has reached 57%, although the rest of the nation's inoculation rate is still at 15%.  
While Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) previously suffered from the Airport Express that took the former's market share in that route, the recent collaboration with PT KAI (National Train of Indonesia) allows Bluebird taxis to be included when customers are booking train tickets, creating a new distribution channel for Bluebird besides its existing partnership with Gojek. 
The downside of owning Bluebird's share right now is quite limited as the mobility lockdown is only months from over thus owning Bluebird right now can be likened to have a long position on a call option. Its share price should trade at least at book value or even higher at 1.2x PBR, implying a potential return of between 76% to 126%. 

Blue Bird (BIRD): New Distribution Channel and Limited Downside.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dida-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29701:1" rel="noopener">Dida (DIDA HK)</a> (Dida), a technology driven mobility platform in China, aims to raise around US$400m in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by JD.com, Hillhouse, Ctrip, Bitauto and a host of other investors.</p></div><div>
<p>Dida claims to operate the largest carpooling marketplace in China with a market share of 66.5% in terms of the number of carpooling rides in 2019, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S) report. Over 2017-19, Dida’s total revenue increased by 11.87x. Revenue was up another 66% over 6M20. Revenue coming from carpooling has grown 19x over 2017 to 2019 and was up another 66% over 6M20. </p>
<p>We’ve covered the background of the company in our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dida-pre-ipo-making-hay-while-big-brother-retreats" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dida Pre-IPO - Making hay while big brother retreats</a>.</p>
<p>In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.</p>
</div>

Dida (DIDA HK) (Dida), a technology driven mobility platform in China, aims to raise around US$400m in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by JD.com, Hillhouse, Ctrip, Bitauto and a host of other investors.
Dida claims to operate the largest carpooling marketplace in China with a market share of 66.5% in terms of the number of carpooling rides in 2019, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S) report. Over 2017-19, Dida’s total revenue increased by 11.87x. Revenue was up another 66% over 6M20. Revenue coming from carpooling has grown 19x over 2017 to 2019 and was up another 66% over 6M20. 
We’ve covered the background of the company in our previous note, Dida Pre-IPO - Making hay while big brother retreats.
In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.


Dida Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Lagging in Scale, Leading in Profitability

<p>Despite the lockdown and ceaseless increase in the infection cases in Indonesia, the mobility rate in the workplace has improved by 50% that helped to narrow Q3 2020 loss apart from the cost savings initiative. </p>
<p>Vaccine discovery has helped Bluebird's share price ascension but the real push will come from the vaccination in Indonesia that will lead to a looser government policy lockdown and it is bound to create a more permanent feeling that it is business as usual (pre-COVID) therefore may even lead to a re-opening of the borders. </p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>At 9.8 EV/EBITDA and 0.73 PBR, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blue-bird-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19482:1" rel="noopener">Blue Bird (BIRD IJ)</a> is currently trading at 42% and 44% discount in EV/EBITDA and PBR compared to its peers despite a 57% rally. We should expect to see further multiple expansion in Blue Bird as mass vaccination is taking place and people have more confidence in the economic recovery in Indonesia. </p>
</div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/182/498/original/image_2762037721610626999059.png?1610626999" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="182498"></figure>
<div class="content-remarks">
<p>source: Capital IQ</p>
</div>

Despite the lockdown and ceaseless increase in the infection cases in Indonesia, the mobility rate in the workplace has improved by 50% that helped to narrow Q3 2020 loss apart from the cost savings initiative. 
Vaccine discovery has helped Bluebird's share price ascension but the real push will come from the vaccination in Indonesia that will lead to a looser government policy lockdown and it is bound to create a more permanent feeling that it is business as usual (pre-COVID) therefore may even lead to a re-opening of the borders. 

At 9.8 EV/EBITDA and 0.73 PBR, Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) is currently trading at 42% and 44% discount in EV/EBITDA and PBR compared to its peers despite a 57% rally. We should expect to see further multiple expansion in Blue Bird as mass vaccination is taking place and people have more confidence in the economic recovery in Indonesia. 



source: Capital IQ


ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

<p>The talk that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> are in the advanced stage of merger talks seems to be a reiteration of the earlier chatter and certainly some wishful thinking from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> and its shareholders perspective in my view. Certainly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)'</a>s Masayoshi Son has made it known that he would like to see a merger happen.</p>
<p>Not a great surprise, given that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> is burning more cash than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ) </a>to stand still. It also operates on a higher cost base with its headquarters in Singapore. There are sure to be Investment Banks in the background pushing for a deal but this does not mean it will happen.</p>
<p>The amazing performance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>, which is up by +880% over the last year and now South East Asia's largest market cap stock at US$90.8bn makes a future listing enticing to realize future value. </p>
<p>The key will be Indonesia, which is after all the region's largest internet market and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a>'s largest market. Surely we should also consider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> shareholders in this? They may not be so willing to relinquish control? </p>
<p>The overriding battle will continue to be between the Chinese behemoths <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US),</a> which hold stakes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> respectively. These two companies are engaged in an ongoing land grab in the digital space in South East Asia, and more especially in Indonesia and it seems unlikely that they would be in cahoots with each other.  </p>
<p>It would seem unlikely that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> would relinquish ultimate management control to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> given the dominance in its home market. It has also been quietly rebranding in the region, which could spell a more aggressive approach outside Indonesia is in the offing. </p>

The talk that Grab (0967655D SP) and Gojek (1379371D IJ) are in the advanced stage of merger talks seems to be a reiteration of the earlier chatter and certainly some wishful thinking from the Grab (0967655D SP) and its shareholders perspective in my view. Certainly, Softbank Corp (9434 JP)'s Masayoshi Son has made it known that he would like to see a merger happen.
Not a great surprise, given that Grab (0967655D SP) is burning more cash than Gojek (1379371D IJ) to stand still. It also operates on a higher cost base with its headquarters in Singapore. There are sure to be Investment Banks in the background pushing for a deal but this does not mean it will happen.
The amazing performance of Sea Ltd (SE US), which is up by +880% over the last year and now South East Asia's largest market cap stock at US$90.8bn makes a future listing enticing to realize future value. 
The key will be Indonesia, which is after all the region's largest internet market and Gojek (1379371D IJ)'s largest market. Surely we should also consider Gojek (1379371D IJ) shareholders in this? They may not be so willing to relinquish control? 
The overriding battle will continue to be between the Chinese behemoths Tencent Holdings (700 HK) and Alibaba Group (BABA US), which hold stakes in Gojek (1379371D IJ) and Grab (0967655D SP) respectively. These two companies are engaged in an ongoing land grab in the digital space in South East Asia, and more especially in Indonesia and it seems unlikely that they would be in cahoots with each other.  
It would seem unlikely that Gojek (1379371D IJ) would relinquish ultimate management control to Grab (0967655D SP) given the dominance in its home market. It has also been quietly rebranding in the region, which could spell a more aggressive approach outside Indonesia is in the offing. 

Indonesia

Bluebird is an Indonesian transportation company primarily known for its taxi services, including the flagship Bluebird regular taxis and Silverbird executive taxis. The company also offers a diverse range of other mobility solutions, such as car rental (Goldenbird), bus charter (Bigbird), shuttle services (Cititrans), and logistics (Ironbird and Bluebird Kirim). Headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, the company was officially founded in 1972.

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Bluebird (BIRD IJ)

Wickhams Hill Research | Under-The-Radar Issue 12

A deeper look into Cisarua Mountain Dairy – Cimory (CMRY IJ) since we initially highlighted the deal in Issue 8 revealed that is business is not...

Lloyd Moffatt

Blue Bird (BIRD): New Distribution Channel and Limited Downside.

Blue Bird (suffered from the Airport Express that took the former's market share, the recent collaboration with PT KAI allows Bluebird taxis to be...

Henry Soediarko

Dida Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Lagging in Scale, Leading in Profitability

Dida (DIDA HK) (Dida), a technology driven mobility platform in China, aims to raise around US$400m in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by...

Sumeet Singh

BlueBird (BIRD): Flying Higher

At 9.8 EV/EBITDA and 0.73 PBR, Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) is currently trading at 42% and 44% discount in EV/EBITDA and PBR compared to its peers despite...

Henry Soediarko

Gojek and Grab Merger Wishful Thinking?

The talk that Grab and Gojek are in the advanced stage of merger talks seems to be a reiteration of the earlier chatter and some wishful thinking...

Angus Mackintosh

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