ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak-com-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak</a> released its 1Q2024 results this week with some palpable relief as it booked its first adjusted EBITDA but underlying revenue growth remains strong, especially for its O2O business. </li>
<li>The company saw take rates improve for both its Mitra O2O business and its marketplace businesses, helping to drive revenue growth. Costs were also reduced allowing for positive contribution margins. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak-com-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak</a> is expected to see sustainable profitability accompanied by revenue growth, with the marketplace recovering with improving product mix. BUKA'S "orphan" cash pile remains an issue but valuations are attractive.</li>
</ul>



Bukalapak released its 1Q2024 results this week with some palpable relief as it booked its first adjusted EBITDA but underlying revenue growth remains strong, especially for its O2O business. 
The company saw take rates improve for both its Mitra O2O business and its marketplace businesses, helping to drive revenue growth. Costs were also reduced allowing for positive contribution margins. 

Bukalapak is expected to see sustainable profitability accompanied by revenue growth, with the marketplace recovering with improving product mix. BUKA'S "orphan" cash pile remains an issue but valuations are attractive.


Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) - Eureka Moment with Better Visibility Ahead

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak-com-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ)</a> booked a slightly weaker finish to the year than expected with a slowdown in revenue growth in 4Q2023 and a miss on adjusted EBITDA breakeven.</li>
<li>The key reason was a thinning out of non-performing specialty businesses which impacted short-term revenues but will improve revenues and adjusted EBITDA. as the focus shifts to higher take-rate businesses.</li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak-com-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak.com PT Tbk (BUKA IJ)</a> is guiding for +15-20% revenue growth and positive adjusted EBITDA in 2024 with execution on this being paramount. Valuations remain attractive.</li>
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Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ) booked a slightly weaker finish to the year than expected with a slowdown in revenue growth in 4Q2023 and a miss on adjusted EBITDA breakeven.
The key reason was a thinning out of non-performing specialty businesses which impacted short-term revenues but will improve revenues and adjusted EBITDA. as the focus shifts to higher take-rate businesses.

Bukalapak.com PT Tbk (BUKA IJ) is guiding for +15-20% revenue growth and positive adjusted EBITDA in 2024 with execution on this being paramount. Valuations remain attractive.


Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ) - On the Cusp of Breakeven

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> represents one of the most interesting plays on people and goods mobility and end-to-end logistics in Indonesia, being market leaders in auto leasing and auctions.</li>
<li>Revenues slowed in 9M2023 due to a slowdown in Anteraja because of slower e-commerce but other areas saw strong growth, especially its auction and used car business.</li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada</a> continues to build its renamed Cargoshare end-to-end logistics business with new customers and a move into cold chain logistics. Valuations are attractive relative to growth.</li>
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Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) represents one of the most interesting plays on people and goods mobility and end-to-end logistics in Indonesia, being market leaders in auto leasing and auctions.
Revenues slowed in 9M2023 due to a slowdown in Anteraja because of slower e-commerce but other areas saw strong growth, especially its auction and used car business.

Adi Sarana Armada continues to build its renamed Cargoshare end-to-end logistics business with new customers and a move into cold chain logistics. Valuations are attractive relative to growth.


Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - Leading Player in People and Goods Mobility

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ)</a> has announced that it will sell a controlling 75.01% stake in Tokopedia to TikTok in order to create Indonesia's leading e-commerce platform.</li>
<li>There had been earlier indications that a deal was in the offing but the size of TikTok's stake was surprising plus it has committed to invest US$1.5bn in Tokopedia. </li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a> will retain a 24.99% non-dilutive stake and will receive an ongoing revenue stream from Tokopedia in line with its scale and growth contributing directly to its EBITDA. </li>
</ul>



GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) has announced that it will sell a controlling 75.01% stake in Tokopedia to TikTok in order to create Indonesia's leading e-commerce platform.
There had been earlier indications that a deal was in the offing but the size of TikTok's stake was surprising plus it has committed to invest US$1.5bn in Tokopedia. 

GoTo will retain a 24.99% non-dilutive stake and will receive an ongoing revenue stream from Tokopedia in line with its scale and growth contributing directly to its EBITDA. 


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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia's</a> 3Q2023 results were far more illuminating and encouraging than the last 2Qs, with more progress towards adjusted EBITDA breakeven, with much more colour on its new initiatives.</li>
<li>The company's focus on budget consumers and more affordable product offerings are already expanding its TAM and improving product density and productivity, speeding progress towards productivity. </li>
<li>GoTo will continue to invest in growth, which may mean it misses its 4Q adjusted EBITDA breakeven target but it has reduced cash burn significantly giving it more breathing space.</li>
</ul>



GoTo Gojek Tokopedia's 3Q2023 results were far more illuminating and encouraging than the last 2Qs, with more progress towards adjusted EBITDA breakeven, with much more colour on its new initiatives.
The company's focus on budget consumers and more affordable product offerings are already expanding its TAM and improving product density and productivity, speeding progress towards productivity. 
GoTo will continue to invest in growth, which may mean it misses its 4Q adjusted EBITDA breakeven target but it has reduced cash burn significantly giving it more breathing space.


GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - New Initiatives Gaining Traction and Increasing Productivity

Indonesia

Bukalapak is an Indonesian technology company that operates an all-commerce platform, focusing on empowering micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and individual sellers. It has transformed from primarily an online marketplace for physical products to concentrating on four main business lines: Mitra Bukalapak (O2O MSME empowerment program), gaming, investment, and retail. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)