External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bumi Resources Minerals / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Bumi Resource Minerals (BRMS): A Steeper FY26F Recovery Path, But Near-Term Risks Largely Priced In.</li><li>1H26 earnings missed, with net profit of US$12.9mn (-44.0% y-y), as lower production and constrained sales drove a 2Q26 loss.</li><li>Mgmt’s FY26 target of 70-75koz appears challenging; we cut FY26–28F production to 60.9koz/81.6koz/158.2koz. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bumi Resource Minerals (BRMS): A Steeper FY26F Recovery Path, But Near-Term Risks Largely Priced In.1H26 earnings missed, with net profit of US$12.9mn (-44.0% y-y), as lower production and constrained sales drove a 2Q26 loss.Mgmt’s FY26 target of 70-75koz appears challenging; we cut FY26–28F production to 60.9koz/81.6koz/158.2koz. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRMS.IJ -  A Steeper FY26F Recovery Path, But Near-Term Risks Largely Priced In

<ul><li>1H26 earnings missed, with net profit of US$12.9mn ( - 44.0% y - y), as lower production and constrained sales drove a 2Q26 loss.</li><li>Mgmt’s FY26 target of 70 - 75koz appears challenging; we cut FY26 –28F production to 60.9koz/81.6koz/158.2koz.</li><li>Maintain Buy rating with lower TP of Rp700, reflecting weaker volume and ASP s, with CIL and underground ramp - up as catalysts.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

1H26 earnings missed, with net profit of US$12.9mn ( - 44.0% y - y), as lower production and constrained sales drove a 2Q26 loss.Mgmt’s FY26 target of 70 - 75koz appears challenging; we cut FY26 –28F production to 60.9koz/81.6koz/158.2koz.Maintain Buy rating with lower TP of Rp700, reflecting weaker volume and ASP s, with CIL and underground ramp - up as catalysts.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bumi Resource Minerals: A Steeper FY26F Recovery Path, But Near-Term Risks Largely Priced In

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF</a> will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the VanEck Gold Miners ETF will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.
Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.
The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$10.2bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have underperformed the forecast deletes since the last Insight that highlighted the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$10.2bn.
The forecast adds have underperformed the forecast deletes since the last Insight that highlighted the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$10bn

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.</li>
<li>That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.</li>
<li>The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.
The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change

Indonesia

PT Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk, through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties across Asia. The company primarily explores for lead, zinc, gold, copper, and iron ore, and also engages in investment activities, funding, financing, and offers mining advisory and marketing services. It was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS IJ)

BRMS.IJ - A Steeper FY26F Recovery Path, But Near-Term Risks Largely Priced In

Maintain Buy rating with lower TP of Rp700, reflecting weaker volume and ASPs, with CIL and underground ramp-up as catalysts.1H26 earnings miss on...

BRI Danareksa Research

Bumi Resource Minerals: A Steeper FY26F Recovery Path, But Near-Term Risks Largely Priced In

We maintain our Buy rating but lower our SOTP - based TP to Rp700 from Rp1,100, following cuts to our FY26F –28F forecasts.

BRI Danareksa Research

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

The GDX ETF will change benchmarks at the close on 19 Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8%; round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. Adds...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$10bn

The change in benchmark for GDX should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change

The GDX ETF has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index. Estimated turnover...

Brian Freitas

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