Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Indonesia in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on XL Axiata, Solusi Sinergi Digital, Aneka Tambang, Indah Kiat Pulp &amp; Paper, Telkom Indonesia, Bank Mandiri, Surya Esa Perkasa.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Indonesia in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on XL Axiata, Solusi Sinergi Digital, Aneka Tambang, Indah Kiat Pulp &amp; Paper, Telkom Indonesia, Bank Mandiri, Surya Esa Perkasa.


MS-Indonesia Index Earning Revision (May): XL Axiata, Solusi Sinergi Digital, Aneka Tambang

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Barito Renewables Energy / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Minimum free float has been set at 15% with a timeline for companies to get there. A list of stocks with High Shareholding Concentration has also been released.</li>
<li>There could be 6 deletions from a global index in May with few other stocks having free float reductions. Estimated passive selling in Indonesia is US$1.3bn.</li>
<li>The changes to the free float thresholds and the improved disclosure brings Indonesia in line with other markets in Asia and should allay global index providers concerns.</li>
</ul>


Minimum free float has been set at 15% with a timeline for companies to get there. A list of stocks with High Shareholding Concentration has also been released.
There could be 6 deletions from a global index in May with few other stocks having free float reductions. Estimated passive selling in Indonesia is US$1.3bn.
The changes to the free float thresholds and the improved disclosure brings Indonesia in line with other markets in Asia and should allay global index providers concerns.


Indonesia: Updated Disclosures Could Lead to Multiple Deletions & Float Decreases in May

Amman Mineral Internasional / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following feedback from a global index provider, the IDX (and KSEI) have released the list of shareholders that own more than 1% of a listed company.</li>
<li>Going through the list, we find many strategic holders of stock above 1% and identify 7 companies that could see a float reduction and passive selling in May. </li>
<li>The lower float could see one stock deleted from the index; two others are close. But the risk of Indonesia being downgraded to a frontier market is now behind us.</li>
</ul>


Following feedback from a global index provider, the IDX (and KSEI) have released the list of shareholders that own more than 1% of a listed company.
Going through the list, we find many strategic holders of stock above 1% and identify 7 companies that could see a float reduction and passive selling in May. 
The lower float could see one stock deleted from the index; two others are close. But the risk of Indonesia being downgraded to a frontier market is now behind us.


Indonesia: Holdings Larger than 1% Disclosed; Stocks Affected & Impact

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Indonesia in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on XL Axiata, Telkom Indonesia (Persero), Vale Indonesia, Bank Mandiri Persero, Astra International, Sariguna Primatirta, Aneka Tambang Persero.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Indonesia in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on XL Axiata, Telkom Indonesia (Persero), Vale Indonesia, Bank Mandiri Persero, Astra International, Sariguna Primatirta, Aneka Tambang Persero.


MS-Indonesia Index Earning Revision (Jan): XL Axiata, Telkom Indonesia, Vale Indonesia

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index rebalance ended on 31 December. The changes should be announced the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 30 January.</li>
<li>We highlight 3 potential inclusions and 3 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. Depending on the index committee discretion, the actual number of changes could be lower/higher.</li>
<li>The impact on the forecast inclusions is not very high but the impact on the forecast deletion is much higher.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index rebalance ended on 31 December. The changes should be announced the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 30 January.
We highlight 3 potential inclusions and 3 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. Depending on the index committee discretion, the actual number of changes could be lower/higher.
The impact on the forecast inclusions is not very high but the impact on the forecast deletion is much higher.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2026): Identifying Potential Index Changes

Indonesia

PT Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk, through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties across Asia. The company primarily explores for lead, zinc, gold, copper, and iron ore, and also engages in investment activities, funding, financing, and offers mining advisory and marketing services. It was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS IJ)

MS-Indonesia Index Earning Revision (May): XL Axiata, Solusi Sinergi Digital, Aneka Tambang

We analyzed MS-Indonesia's consensus for May 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in XL Axiata (EXCL IJ), Solusi Sinergi Digital (WIFI IJ), Aneka...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Indonesia: Updated Disclosures Could Lead to Multiple Deletions & Float Decreases in May

Min free float raised to 15% and companies given time to get there. High Shareholding Concentration list is out. There could be 6 deletions in May...

Brian Freitas

Indonesia: Holdings Larger than 1% Disclosed; Stocks Affected & Impact

Stocks that are expected to be downweighted (or deleted) have underperformed the index and peers. Index providers could announce their future...

Brian Freitas

MS-Indonesia Index Earning Revision (Jan): XL Axiata, Telkom Indonesia, Vale Indonesia

We analyzed MS-Indonesia's consensus for Jan 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in XL Axiata (EXCL IJ), Telkom Indonesia (Persero) (TLKM IJ), Vale...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2026): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We highlight 3 sets of changes for the LQ45 in January. The forecast adds have surged while the forecast deletes have dropped. Historically, adds...

Brian Freitas

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