Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-1457'>China Oil And Gas</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-40020'>Continuum Green Energy</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-1776'>Indika Energy</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.China Oil And GasContinuum Green EnergyIndika Energy

Morning Views Asia: China Oil And Gas, Continuum Green Energy, Indika Energy

Trung Nguyen

Indika Energy has launched a tender offer for its USD 8.25% 2025 notes, with USD 534 mn outstanding. For each USD 1,000 in principal, the tender consideration is USD 962.5 and early tender consideration is USD 50, leading to a total consideration of USD 1,012.5. Indika is concurrently launching a USD 144A/RegS offering. Holders of the 8.25% '25s may request to receive priority allocation on the new notes. We view initial price talk of 8.875% as attractive, given the company's robust credit profile and improving debt maturity profile.

  Indika Energy has launched a tender offer for its USD 8.25% 2025 notes, with USD 534 mn outstanding. For each USD 1,000 in principal, the tender consideration is USD 962.5 and early tender consideration is USD 50, leading to a total consideration of USD 1,012.5. Indika is concurrently launching a USD 144A/RegS offering. Holders of the 8.25% '25s may request to receive priority allocation on the new notes.   We view initial price talk of 8.875% as attractive, given the company's robust credit profile and improving debt maturity profile. 

Indika Energy - Event Flash - Launches Tender Offer And 5NC2 Notes Offering - Lucror Analytics

Indika Energy’s FY 2023 numbers were soft as projected, owing to lower coal prices and the impact of the new licence for 91%-owned PT Kideco Jaya Agung. While Indika's financial risk profile deteriorated significantly, the credit metrics remained robust within the rating category. Liquidity stayed sound. The company should have a more difficult year in FY 2024, with decreased selling prices, revenue and earnings expected. That said, we still believe Indika can generate positive FCF, given its low-cost position. The company is set to redeem the c. USD 294 mn outstanding USD 5.875% 11/24 notes on May 3rd at par. While the redemption will be leverage neutral, we view the move as credit positive. Indika will only have the USD 2025 bonds remaining after the 2024 notes redemption, and these can be almost fully funded by the holdco's cash position.

  Indika Energy’s FY 2023 numbers were soft as projected, owing to lower coal prices and the impact of the new licence for 91%-owned PT Kideco Jaya Agung. While Indika's financial risk profile deteriorated significantly, the credit metrics remained robust within the rating category. Liquidity stayed sound.   The company should have a more difficult year in FY 2024, with decreased selling prices, revenue and earnings expected. That said, we still believe Indika can generate positive FCF, given its low-cost position.   The company is set to redeem the c. USD 294 mn outstanding USD 5.875% 11/24 notes on May 3rd at par. While the redemption will be leverage neutral, we view the move as credit positive. Indika will only have the USD 2025 bonds remaining after the 2024 notes redemption, and these can be almost fully funded by the holdco's cash position. 

Indika Energy - Earnings Flash - FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-26076'>China Vanke </a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-1776'>Indika Energy</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-22202'>Vedanta Resources</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.China Vanke Indika EnergyVedanta Resources

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke  , Indika Energy, Vedanta Resources

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a> family of indices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, the KRX New Deal Index and a global index ends on 31 January.</li>
<li>The January rebalance of the IDX30 and LQ45 indices will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 January.</li>
<li>There have been huge inflows into the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> ETFs for another week. This will increase the impact on the index changes at the next rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the NIFTY family of indices, Nikkei 225, STAR50, the KRX New Deal Index and a global index ends on 31 January.
The January rebalance of the IDX30 and LQ45 indices will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 January.
There have been huge inflows into the CSI 300 Index ETFs for another week. This will increase the impact on the index changes at the next rebalance.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

Indonesia

Indika Energy is an integrated Indonesian energy company providing solutions across energy resources, services, and infrastructure. Its energy resources business focuses on coal exploration, production, and processing, while its energy services segment offers engineering, procurement, construction, operations, and maintenance for various energy sectors. The company also handles mining transportation, logistics, and electricity generation through its energy infrastructure business. Indika Energy is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, and was founded in 2000.

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Indika Energy (INDY IJ)

Morning Views Asia: China Oil And Gas, Continuum Green Energy, Indika Energy

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Indika Energy - Event Flash - Launches Tender Offer And 5NC2 Notes Offering - Lucror Analytics

Indika Energy has launched a tender offer for its USD 8.25% 2025 notes, with USD 534 mn outstanding. For each USD 1,000 in principal, the tender...

Lucror Analytics

Indika Energy - Earnings Flash - FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

Indika Energy’s FY 2023 numbers were soft as projected, owing to lower coal prices and the impact of the new licence for 91%-owned PT Kideco Jaya...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Indika Energy, Vedanta Resources

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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