Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - December 2022 - Lucror Analytics

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Bumi Resources Minerals / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 30 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Potential adds are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-resources-minerals-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9136:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-esa-perkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14326:1" rel="noopener">Surya Esa Perkasa (ESSA IJ)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saratoga-investama-sedaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13714:1" rel="noopener"> Saratoga Investama Sedaya (SRTG IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-minerals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35927:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-dayamitra-telekomunikasi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34741:1" rel="noopener">Mitratel (MTEL IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>Potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wijaya-karya-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1877:1" rel="noopener">PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk (WIKA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erajaya-swasembada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18869:1" rel="noopener">Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/media-nusantara-citra-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6881:1" rel="noopener">Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hm-sampoerna-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:617:1" rel="noopener">HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 30 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
Potential adds are Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ), Surya Esa Perkasa (ESSA IJ), Saratoga Investama Sedaya (SRTG IJ), Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ) and Mitratel (MTEL IJ). 
Potential deletions are PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk (WIKA IJ), Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ), Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ), Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ) and HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ). 


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Few Weeks to Implementation

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/kawasan-industri-jababeka-tbk-pt' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Kawasan Industri Jababeka</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-south-city-holdings' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China South City</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-jinmao-holdings-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China Jinmao Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/guangzhou-r-f-properties-h' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Guangzhou R&F Properties</a></li><li><a href='/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Sunac China Holdings</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Kawasan Industri JababekaChina South CityChina Jinmao HoldingsGuangzhou R&F PropertiesSunac China Holdingsand more...

Trung Nguyen

We view Indika Energy as “Medium Risk” on the LARA scale, thanks to its robust balance sheet following the December 2017 acquisition of a controlling stake in PT Kideco Jaya Agung (to 91%) at a low price. We note favourably Kideco’s position as the third-largest coal producer in Indonesia, as well as the low-cost structure (first quartile; profitable even during the coal downturn in the past few years). It is one of the few HY coal credits that survived the downturn. Indika's balance sheet appeared to be fairly levered in the past, as debt-free Kideco had not been consolidated. However, the balance sheet was transformed by the stake acquisition. The business profile also changed from that of an energy (primarily coal) services company to that of an integrated coal producer. The balance sheet is now robust, with a net cash position. In the medium term, Indika is diversifying away from coal by acquiring and investing in non-coal businesses. Our fundamental Credit Bias on Indika is "Positive". This is based on: [1] the strong rally in coal prices, which should further boost the company's financial risk profile in FY 2022; and [2] Indika's commitment to improving its business diversification and ESG standards. Controversies are "Immaterial" and the ESG Impact on Credit is "Neutral". We revise our recommendation to “Hold” on the INDYIJ notes from "Buy" on the INDYIJ 8.25 25.

  We view Indika Energy as “Medium Risk” on the LARA scale, thanks to its robust balance sheet following the December 2017 acquisition of a controlling stake in PT Kideco Jaya Agung (to 91%) at a low price. We note favourably Kideco’s position as the third-largest coal producer in Indonesia, as well as the low-cost structure (first quartile; profitable even during the coal downturn in the past few years). It is one of the few HY coal credits that survived the downturn. Indika's balance sheet appeared to be fairly levered in the past, as debt-free Kideco had not been consolidated. However, the balance sheet was transformed by the stake acquisition. The business profile also changed from that of an energy (primarily coal) services company to that of an integrated coal producer. The balance sheet is now robust, with a net cash position. In the medium term, Indika is diversifying away from coal by acquiring and investing in non-coal businesses.   Our fundamental Credit Bias on Indika is "Positive". This is based on: [1] the strong rally in coal prices, which should further boost the company's financial risk profile in FY 2022; and [2] Indika's commitment to improving its business diversification and ESG standards.   Controversies are "Immaterial" and the ESG Impact on Credit is "Neutral".   We revise our recommendation to “Hold” on the INDYIJ notes from "Buy" on the INDYIJ 8.25 25. 

Indika Energy - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/kawasan-industri-jababeka-tbk-pt' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Kawasan Industri Jababeka</a></li><li><a href='/entities/tata-motors-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Tata Motors Ltd</a></li><li><a href='/entities/yuzhou-group-holdings-company-limited' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Yuzhou Group</a></li><li><a href='/entities/powerlong-real-estate-holdings-limited' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Powerlong Real Estate Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Sunac China Holdings</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Kawasan Industri JababekaTata Motors LtdYuzhou GroupPowerlong Real Estate HoldingsSunac China Holdingsand more...

Indonesia

Indika Energy is an integrated Indonesian energy company providing solutions across energy resources, services, and infrastructure. Its energy resources business focuses on coal exploration, production, and processing, while its energy services segment offers engineering, procurement, construction, operations, and maintenance for various energy sectors. The company also handles mining transportation, logistics, and electricity generation through its energy infrastructure business. Indika Energy is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, and was founded in 2000.

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Indika Energy (INDY IJ)

Asia HY Monthly - December 2022 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top...

Lucror Analytics

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Few Weeks to Implementation

We filter stocks that have a possibility of becoming adds/deletes for the LQ45 Index in Jan. The impact on the deletes will be higher, plus there...

Brian Freitas

Weekly Wrap - 22 Dec 2022

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

Indika Energy - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics

We view Indika Energy as “Medium Risk” on the LARA scale, thanks to its robust balance sheet following the December 2017 acquisition of a...

Lucror Analytics

Weekly Wrap - 16 Dec 2022

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

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