Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For April 2025, 9 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn. Not including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>'s potential Offer.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in April was ~46%, with a year-to-date average of 53%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For April 2025, 9 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn. Not including Toyota Industries (6201 JP)'s potential Offer.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in April was ~46%, with a year-to-date average of 53%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Apr 2025 Wrap: Toyota, Abacus Storage, Bright Smart, Fujitsu General, Topcon

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Dian Swastatika Sentosa / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index April rebalance ended 31 March. The changes should be announced later this week, becoming effective after the close on 30 April.</li>
<li>We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 3 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.</li>
<li>All the potential changes have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers and some stocks will be impacted more than others.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index April rebalance ended 31 March. The changes should be announced later this week, becoming effective after the close on 30 April.
We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 3 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
All the potential changes have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers and some stocks will be impacted more than others.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Apr 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

<ul>
<li>Value Act, as activist, believes the KKR's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topcon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:738:1" rel="noopener">Topcon Corp (7732 JP)</a> is not being done at the right price. But Value Act will now tender shares and invest in Bidco. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)</a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iluka-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10105:1" rel="noopener">Iluka Resources (ILU AU)</a> are the only Australian companies with confirmed (or near-term) refining specific heavy rare earth elements as China restricts exports.</li>
<li>StraCap has been tilting at the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wakita-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11924:1" rel="noopener">Wakita (8125 JP)</a> for years. It hasn't made headway. The only way StraCap will get its measures over the line is by soliciting retail.</li>
</ul>


Value Act, as activist, believes the KKR's Topcon Corp (7732 JP) is not being done at the right price. But Value Act will now tender shares and invest in Bidco. 

Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)and Iluka Resources (ILU AU) are the only Australian companies with confirmed (or near-term) refining specific heavy rare earth elements as China restricts exports.
StraCap has been tilting at the Wakita (8125 JP) for years. It hasn't made headway. The only way StraCap will get its measures over the line is by soliciting retail.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Topcon, Heavy Rare Earth Elements, Wakita, Swire/Cathay, Horizon Robotics

<ul>
<li>I tally 51 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>One new deal discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a>'s Merger by Absorption.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha (3391 JP)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia (3141 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pec-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19415:1" rel="noopener">PEC Ltd. (PEC SP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pec-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19415:1" rel="noopener"></a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 51 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
One new deal discussed this week: Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)'s Merger by Absorption.
Key updates/news took place on De Grey Mining (DEG AU), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK),Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), and PEC Ltd. (PEC SP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Fengxiang, De Grey Mining, Canvest, Tsuruha/Welcia, Shibaura Electronics

<ul>
<li>On the 24th January, Renaldo Santosa and his family, who controlled ~75.5% of agri-play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15597:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Ltd (JAP SP)</a>, pitched a Scheme Offer at S$0.62/share, a 34.8% premium to undisturbed.</li>
<li>Yesterday (15th April), disinterested shareholders <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/20250415%20Japfa%20Scheme%20Meeting%20Results%20Announcement.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=841239" target="_blank" rel="noopener">overwhelmingly (in terms of shares) backed the Scheme</a>. The last day of trading is around the 9th May, and payment around the 30th May.</li>
<li>The question now is whether the family now seeks to take 55.4%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-comfeed-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8258:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ)</a> private.</li>
</ul>


On the 24th January, Renaldo Santosa and his family, who controlled ~75.5% of agri-play Japfa Ltd (JAP SP), pitched a Scheme Offer at S$0.62/share, a 34.8% premium to undisturbed.
Yesterday (15th April), disinterested shareholders overwhelmingly (in terms of shares) backed the Scheme. The last day of trading is around the 9th May, and payment around the 30th May.
The question now is whether the family now seeks to take 55.4%-held Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ) private.


After Squaring Away Japfa, The Santosa Family Looks To PT Japfa

Indonesia

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia is one of Indonesia's largest and most integrated agri-food companies. Its core business activities include animal feed manufacturing, poultry breeding and commercial farming, aquaculture, beef cattle farming, and processing of various value-added food products such as poultry, fish, shrimp, and beef. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ)

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Apr 2025 Wrap: Toyota, Abacus Storage, Bright Smart, Fujitsu General, Topcon

For the month of April, 9 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$6bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Apr 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified potential changes for the LQ45 Index in April. The potential adds have traded in line with the deletes. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: Topcon, Heavy Rare Earth Elements, Wakita, Swire/Cathay, Horizon Robotics

It’s Sunday (and Easter)! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Fengxiang, De Grey Mining, Canvest, Tsuruha/Welcia, Shibaura Electronics

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

After Squaring Away Japfa, The Santosa Family Looks To PT Japfa

PT Japfa is trading below historical averages. Forward earnings guidance is strong. A yield of 6.8% is solid. Pushback - there is, as yet, no talk...

David Blennerhassett

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