Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index January rebalance ended 31 December. The changes should be announced the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 4 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.</li>
<li>Nearly all stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index January rebalance ended 31 December. The changes should be announced the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 4 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
Nearly all stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>JSMR recorded 3% qoq lower toll revenue in 3Q24 due to a high base in 2Q24, yet 9M24 rev. still grew 18% yoy (74%/72% of our/cons FY24F).</li><li>We fine-tuned our traffic vol. growth, capex schedule, interest cost, and minority assumption, thus we lower our FY24-FY26F core NP by 4-11%.</li><li>Nevertheless, we still expect 21%/17% core NP growth in FY24F/FY25F. Reiterate BUY rating with a 5% lower TP of Rp6,200.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JSMR recorded 3% qoq lower toll revenue in 3Q24 due to a high base in 2Q24, yet 9M24 rev. still grew 18% yoy (74%/72% of our/cons FY24F).We fine-tuned our traffic vol. growth, capex schedule, interest cost, and minority assumption, thus we lower our FY24-FY26F core NP by 4-11%.Nevertheless, we still expect 21%/17% core NP growth in FY24F/FY25F. Reiterate BUY rating with a 5% lower TP of Rp6,200.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Jasa Marga - Maintaining Our Positive View Amid 21%/19% EPS Growth Forecast in FY24F/25F

Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index October rebalance ended 30 September. The changes should be announced the last week of October, becoming effective after the close on 31 October.</li>
<li>We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 5 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index October rebalance ended 30 September. The changes should be announced the last week of October, becoming effective after the close on 31 October.
We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 5 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
There are a few stocks that will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Oct 2024): Identifying Potential Index Changes

<ul><li>JSMR has signed SPA on JTT divestment, with expected total proceeds of Rp15.3tr, to be paid in two terms (Sep24 and Dec24).</li><li>The proceeds should enable JSMR to deleverage, thus our FY25E core NP expectation of Rp4.2tr and Rp8tr deleveraging are not stretched.</li><li>The signed agreement should remove JTT divestment overhang. Reiterate Buy on JSMR with a TP of Rp6,500.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JSMR has signed SPA on JTT divestment, with expected total proceeds of Rp15.3tr, to be paid in two terms (Sep24 and Dec24).The proceeds should enable JSMR to deleverage, thus our FY25E core NP expectation of Rp4.2tr and Rp8tr deleveraging are not stretched.The signed agreement should remove JTT divestment overhang. Reiterate Buy on JSMR with a TP of Rp6,500.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Jasa Marga - JTT Divestment Is Signed and Sealed

<ul><li>We expect JSMR’s interest expense to be at Rp 3.8tr-4.1tr in FY25F, incl. additional interest from new tolls, with upside if the lending rate drops.</li><li>Strong revenue momentum will still bring a positive increment to JSMR’s FY25F net profit, even under our most extreme scenario.</li><li>We think concerns about JTT payment delay and higher interest burden are overdone, and thus, we reiterate our Buy rating with a TP Rp 6,500.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect JSMR’s interest expense to be at Rp 3.8tr-4.1tr in FY25F, incl. additional interest from new tolls, with upside if the lending rate drops.Strong revenue momentum will still bring a positive increment to JSMR’s FY25F net profit, even under our most extreme scenario.We think concerns about JTT payment delay and higher interest burden are overdone, and thus, we reiterate our Buy rating with a TP Rp 6,500.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Jasa Marga - Debunking Investors’ Concerns, Part Deux

Indonesia

Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk is an Indonesian company primarily engaged in developing, constructing, operating, managing, and maintaining toll roads. The company also provides road construction and maintenance services, manages rest areas, and develops real estate properties. Jasa Marga was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ)

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have been outperforming the deletes. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

Jasa Marga - Maintaining Our Positive View Amid 21%/19% EPS Growth Forecast in FY24F/25F

JSMR recorded 3% qoq lower toll revenue in 3Q24 due to a high base in 2Q24, yet 9M24 rev. still grew 18% yoy (74%/72% of our/cons FY24F).

BRI Danareksa Research

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Oct 2024): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified potential changes for the LQ45 Index in October. There will also be capping flows for BBCA and BBRI. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

Jasa Marga - JTT Divestment Is Signed and Sealed

JSMR has signed SPA on JTT divestment, with expected total proceeds of Rp15.3tr, to be paid in two terms (Sep24 and Dec24).

BRI Danareksa Research

Jasa Marga - Debunking Investors’ Concerns, Part Deux

We expect JSMR’s interest expense to be at Rp 3.8tr-4.1tr in FY25F, incl. additional interest from new tolls, with upside if the lending rate drops.

BRI Danareksa Research

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