ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<section class="figure"><section class="figure"><div class="content-highlight"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> is South-East Asia's largest pharmaceutical company, with the majority of its sales in Indonesia. The company booked a respectable and resilient set of 1H2021 results with sales rising supported by organic volume growth. After the recent correction , we see this as a key process to rising levels of health-conscious in Indonesia.</div></section><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> saw a solid performance from its prescription pharmaceuticals division, with sales growth of +5.4% YoY in 1H2021.
The company's nutritionals division saw a slight drop of -0.5% in sales in 1H2021, mainly due to a change in products mix towards slightly more affordable products , which bodes well for future growth and its ESG credentials.
As a core part of the company's ESG initiative, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> is proactively extending access to healthcare through a number of different strategies.</section><section class="figure"></section><section class="figure"></section><section class="figure"><section class="figure">The company expects continuing improvement in 2H2021, which will support sales growth of +7-10% for FY2021, with EPS growth of +7-10%, and a dividend payout ratio of 45-55%.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> currently trades in 22.9x FY21E PER and 20.9x FY22E PER versus its 5-year average forward PER of 26.3x forward PER, making it look attractive at current levels. </section></section>

Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) is South-East Asia's largest pharmaceutical company, with the majority of its sales in Indonesia. The company booked a respectable and resilient set of 1H2021 results with sales rising supported by organic volume growth. After the recent correction , we see this as a key process to rising levels of health-conscious in Indonesia.Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) saw a solid performance from its prescription pharmaceuticals division, with sales growth of +5.4% YoY in 1H2021.
The company's nutritionals division saw a slight drop of -0.5% in sales in 1H2021, mainly due to a change in products mix towards slightly more affordable products , which bodes well for future growth and its ESG credentials.
As a core part of the company's ESG initiative, Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) is proactively extending access to healthcare through a number of different strategies.The company expects continuing improvement in 2H2021, which will support sales growth of +7-10% for FY2021, with EPS growth of +7-10%, and a dividend payout ratio of 45-55%.
Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) currently trades in 22.9x FY21E PER and 20.9x FY22E PER versus its 5-year average forward PER of 26.3x forward PER, making it look attractive at current levels. 

Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)- Back to the Business of Health

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> recently reported 1Q2021 results with sales up by +3.8% YoY, with the strongest growth coming from distribution and logistics, which grew +11.7% YoY, followed by consumer health which grew +2.7% YoY and would have been even stronger if not for the sift of the beverages business to the nutritional division.
Its prescription pharmaceuticals saw a slight -0.1% decline in sales for 1Q2021. 2Q2021 should see a boost for the unbranded generics through new tenders won under the BPJS coming through. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> nutritional division saw sales fall -1.0% YoY, boosted by beverages without which sales would have fallen further. The company has launched more affordable powdered milk products to cater for those consumers trading down this year. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> continues to expand into oncology and biologic products, which should help to support margins longer term.
<section class="figure">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> has been building its digital capabilities through a number of different initiatives including KalCare, Klikdokter, MOS Health under <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enseval-putera-megatrading-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12291:1" rel="noopener">Enseval Putera Megatrading (EPMT IJ)</a>, and EMOS , while MosTrans is the company's digital transportation platform that focuses on delivering health products BtoB.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> has a number of strategic initiatives for FY2021, which includes increasing its participation in unbranded generics, and a strengthening its participation in specialty products, as well as growing the pharma business through its digital platform. 
We do not expect any near-term spin-off of the company's nutritional business but this may be considered longer term.  There is a possibility of a potential spin-off of its digital businesses but the timing is uncertain on this. 
We continue to see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a>, as a core holding to play increasing health consciousness in Indonesia, with a strong portfolio of core brands. 
</section>

Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) recently reported 1Q2021 results with sales up by +3.8% YoY, with the strongest growth coming from distribution and logistics, which grew +11.7% YoY, followed by consumer health which grew +2.7% YoY and would have been even stronger if not for the sift of the beverages business to the nutritional division.
Its prescription pharmaceuticals saw a slight -0.1% decline in sales for 1Q2021. 2Q2021 should see a boost for the unbranded generics through new tenders won under the BPJS coming through. 
Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) nutritional division saw sales fall -1.0% YoY, boosted by beverages without which sales would have fallen further. The company has launched more affordable powdered milk products to cater for those consumers trading down this year. 
Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) continues to expand into oncology and biologic products, which should help to support margins longer term.

Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) has been building its digital capabilities through a number of different initiatives including KalCare, Klikdokter, MOS Health under Enseval Putera Megatrading (EPMT IJ), and EMOS , while MosTrans is the company's digital transportation platform that focuses on delivering health products BtoB.
Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) has a number of strategic initiatives for FY2021, which includes increasing its participation in unbranded generics, and a strengthening its participation in specialty products, as well as growing the pharma business through its digital platform. 
We do not expect any near-term spin-off of the company's nutritional business but this may be considered longer term.  There is a possibility of a potential spin-off of its digital businesses but the timing is uncertain on this. 
We continue to see Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ), as a core holding to play increasing health consciousness in Indonesia, with a strong portfolio of core brands. 


Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) - An Increasingly Healthy Blend

Indonesia's largest pharmaceutical company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> is currently in talks with the Indonesian government to distribute the COVID-19 vaccine. A call with the company shed more light on this, as well as the prospects for 2021 for its core business.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> is also developing a COVID-19 vaccine with Genexine of Korea, which has already cleared the first clinical trial phase and is preparing for the second clinical trial.
The distribution of the government-sponsored COVID-19 vaccine will be done through the subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enseval-putera-megatrading-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Enseval Putera Megatrading (EPMT IJ)</a>, which is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a>'s 95%-owned distribution arm.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> is preparing a number of expansion plans at home and abroad, with a planned capex of IDR1tn for 2021, paid out of internally generated funds.
Capex will also be used to complete the construction of an OTC drug factory in Myanmar, where there is strong demand for OTC drugs.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> scores quite highly from an ESG perspective and has just become the only company in Indonesia to achieve a "AA" rating from MSCI having previously been rated A.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> is forecast to see EPS increase by +7.5% in FY21E and +24.2% in FY22E and trades on 25.7x FY21E PER and 23.6x FY22E PER and trades on 15.4x FY21E EV/EBITDA and 14.4x FY22E EV/EBITDA, which are both below historical averages, making the company look attractive with a recovery ahead and in light of this latest vaccine news.

Indonesia's largest pharmaceutical company Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) is currently in talks with the Indonesian government to distribute the COVID-19 vaccine. A call with the company shed more light on this, as well as the prospects for 2021 for its core business.
Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) is also developing a COVID-19 vaccine with Genexine of Korea, which has already cleared the first clinical trial phase and is preparing for the second clinical trial.
The distribution of the government-sponsored COVID-19 vaccine will be done through the subsidiary Enseval Putera Megatrading (EPMT IJ), which is Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)'s 95%-owned distribution arm.
Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) is preparing a number of expansion plans at home and abroad, with a planned capex of IDR1tn for 2021, paid out of internally generated funds.
Capex will also be used to complete the construction of an OTC drug factory in Myanmar, where there is strong demand for OTC drugs.
Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) scores quite highly from an ESG perspective and has just become the only company in Indonesia to achieve a "AA" rating from MSCI having previously been rated A.
Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) is forecast to see EPS increase by +7.5% in FY21E and +24.2% in FY22E and trades on 25.7x FY21E PER and 23.6x FY22E PER and trades on 15.4x FY21E EV/EBITDA and 14.4x FY22E EV/EBITDA, which are both below historical averages, making the company look attractive with a recovery ahead and in light of this latest vaccine news. 

Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) - Vaccinated for Future Growth

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kimia-farma-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8524:1" rel="noopener">Kimia Farma Persero (KAEF IJ)</a> share price astronomic rise has benefited from the COVID-19 panic reaction and its position of being the government distributor for surgical masks throughout the country. Investors were expecting that the surgical masks to be sold at a premium price but the reality is the government instructed the company to sell at Rp 100,000 per box, instead of the overhyped price at Rp 500,000 to 850,000 previously. 
Since its lows (Rp 600) on the 19th of March 2020, the share price has increased by 458% when it reached its high of Rp 3,350. After a couple of days of profit-taking, investors who bought at Rp 600 still made 3x at today's close price. 
At the beginning of the pandemic, people made their own masks from cloth. As surgical masks' availability has improved, some people still like cloth-based masks although clearly, this is not as effective as surgical masks. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-rejeki-isman-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20178:1" rel="noopener">Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ)</a> launched non-surgical but anti-microbial and water-resistant masks based on their own technology with a history of manufacturing army uniform with the same functionalities that I discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sritex-sril-undervalued-with-more-products-and-b2c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43490" rel="noopener">Sritex (SRIL): Undervalued with More Products and B2C</a> .
The most expensive stock in LQ45, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perusahaan-gas-negara-perser" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1584:1" rel="noopener">Perusahaan Gas Negara Perser (PGAS IJ)</a> , is trading at 81x PER so Kimia Farma is really expensive at 190x PER on the back of the surgical mask distributors across Indonesia although the margin is very questionable given the market price for surgical masks have plummeted. 
For existing shareholder - it is really time to get out before the stock price plummets
For long-short investors - the stock is worth shorting for short term gains if there is borrow. Given the small market capitalization, borrow may be tough but the liquidity has improved (USD 5 million ADTV) thus there is a chance for borrow availability.

Kimia Farma Persero (KAEF IJ) share price astronomic rise has benefited from the COVID-19 panic reaction and its position of being the government distributor for surgical masks throughout the country. Investors were expecting that the surgical masks to be sold at a premium price but the reality is the government instructed the company to sell at Rp 100,000 per box, instead of the overhyped price at Rp 500,000 to 850,000 previously. 
Since its lows (Rp 600) on the 19th of March 2020, the share price has increased by 458% when it reached its high of Rp 3,350. After a couple of days of profit-taking, investors who bought at Rp 600 still made 3x at today's close price. 
At the beginning of the pandemic, people made their own masks from cloth. As surgical masks' availability has improved, some people still like cloth-based masks although clearly, this is not as effective as surgical masks. Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ) launched non-surgical but anti-microbial and water-resistant masks based on their own technology with a history of manufacturing army uniform with the same functionalities that I discussed in Sritex (SRIL): Undervalued with More Products and B2C .
The most expensive stock in LQ45, Perusahaan Gas Negara Perser (PGAS IJ) , is trading at 81x PER so Kimia Farma is really expensive at 190x PER on the back of the surgical mask distributors across Indonesia although the margin is very questionable given the market price for surgical masks have plummeted. 
For existing shareholder - it is really time to get out before the stock price plummets
For long-short investors - the stock is worth shorting for short term gains if there is borrow. Given the small market capitalization, borrow may be tough but the liquidity has improved (USD 5 million ADTV) thus there is a chance for borrow availability. 

Kimia Farma (KAEF): National Service Is Charity

Expand when your peers retreat. That is what <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-rejeki-isman-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20178:1" rel="noopener">Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ)</a> management has done in this COVID-19 period. It has launched more products from daily wear to COVID-19 related products such as non-medical masks (B2C) and PPE (B2B). It has won a mandate to become a PPE supplier to chain hospitals such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siloam-international-hospital" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:878:1" rel="noopener">Siloam International Hospital (SILO IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-keluarga-karyasehat-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:288:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ)</a> .
Among LQ45 constituents, Sritex has the lowest PER while other COVID-19 related stocks such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-keluarga-karyasehat-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:288:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ)</a> trade at 27x and 50x PER respectively. Compared to other PPE and gloves manufacturers in Malaysia such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/top-glove-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20759:1" rel="noopener">Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hartalega-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10230:1" rel="noopener">Hartalega Holdings (HART MK)</a> , Sritex is trading at a deep discount.

Expand when your peers retreat. That is what Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ) management has done in this COVID-19 period. It has launched more products from daily wear to COVID-19 related products such as non-medical masks (B2C) and PPE (B2B). It has won a mandate to become a PPE supplier to chain hospitals such as Siloam International Hospital (SILO IJ) and Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ) .
Among LQ45 constituents, Sritex has the lowest PER while other COVID-19 related stocks such as Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) and Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ) trade at 27x and 50x PER respectively. Compared to other PPE and gloves manufacturers in Malaysia such as Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK) and Hartalega Holdings (HART MK) , Sritex is trading at a deep discount. 

Sritex (SRIL): Undervalued with More Products and B2C

Indonesia

Kalbe Farma is an Indonesian pharmaceutical, healthcare, and nutrition company. It specializes in the development, manufacturing, and distribution of prescription drugs, over-the-counter medications, nutritional supplements, and consumer health items. The company was founded on September 10, 1966, and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)