Global Macro Strategy

Callum Henderson

Macroeconomics

* The multi-year USD rally has been powerful, but in my view will gradually end and reverse this year* Fed tightening is not necessarily USD-positive and will not be this time* The global economy needs a weaker USD, which will help loosen global monetary conditions* The focus of investors has switched from short beta to relative value - 'smart alpha'* Relative value in and between EM assets adds significant alpha to benchmarked portfolios

* The multi-year USD rally has been powerful, but in my view will gradually end and reverse this year* Fed tightening is not necessarily USD-positive and will not be this time* The global economy needs a weaker USD, which will help loosen global monetary conditions* The focus of investors has switched from short beta to relative value - 'smart alpha'* Relative value in and between EM assets adds significant alpha to benchmarked portfolios

Asia Calling: Relative Value in EM - From Short Beta to Smart Alpha

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a> reported a slightly weaker 1H2024 due to a slower performance over Lebaran and afterwards but remains confident in its ongoing initiatives to drive future growth. </li>
<li>The company will not open any new stores in the 2H2024 as it focuses on reservations and driving its private labels, including Suko and Nevada, and consignment vendors. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari</a> continues to drive its omnichannel sales and build on its membership penetration to better target sales. Valuations remain attractive on 4.2x FY2025E PER with a 13% dividend yield.</li>
</ul>



Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) reported a slightly weaker 1H2024 due to a slower performance over Lebaran and afterwards but remains confident in its ongoing initiatives to drive future growth. 
The company will not open any new stores in the 2H2024 as it focuses on reservations and driving its private labels, including Suko and Nevada, and consignment vendors. 

Matahari continues to drive its omnichannel sales and build on its membership penetration to better target sales. Valuations remain attractive on 4.2x FY2025E PER with a 13% dividend yield.


Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) - Private Label Revamp

<ul>
<li>Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) results reflected a positive impact from the timing of Lebaran although the like-for-like comparisons were slightly below management expectations., although SSSG remains very strong YoY. </li>
<li>Management highlighted that better inventory controls meant that inventory levels finished 1Q2024 at significantly lower levels versus last year, with effective cost controls resulting in better EBITDA and net margins. </li>
<li>The company will slow its new store build-out to focus on improving the productivity of existing stores, with refurbishment of six stores and improving merchandise mix driving growth. </li>
</ul>


Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) results reflected a positive impact from the timing of Lebaran although the like-for-like comparisons were slightly below management expectations., although SSSG remains very strong YoY. 
Management highlighted that better inventory controls meant that inventory levels finished 1Q2024 at significantly lower levels versus last year, with effective cost controls resulting in better EBITDA and net margins. 
The company will slow its new store build-out to focus on improving the productivity of existing stores, with refurbishment of six stores and improving merchandise mix driving growth. 


Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) - Measuring Up With Initiatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a> reported another slow set of results in 4Q2023, as it saw slower demand and continues to clear aged inventory. </li>
<li>The company is well-prepared for the upcoming Lebaran season with more conservative inventory levels. It will also see the benefits of new brands coming on stream this year. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store</a> will open 4-6 new stores in 2024 but close 10 underperforming stores, with a continued focus on new DP brands like SUKO. Valuations remain attractive. </li>
</ul>



Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) reported another slow set of results in 4Q2023, as it saw slower demand and continues to clear aged inventory. 
The company is well-prepared for the upcoming Lebaran season with more conservative inventory levels. It will also see the benefits of new brands coming on stream this year. 

Matahari Department Store will open 4-6 new stores in 2024 but close 10 underperforming stores, with a continued focus on new DP brands like SUKO. Valuations remain attractive. 


Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) - Primed for Recovery

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store</a> saw a slower performance in 3Q2023 but looks well set for a recovery in 4Q2023 and early 2024 with elections, Chinese New Year and Lebaran ahead.</li>
<li>The company plans to increase its store count by six in 2024, with four new format Matahari Department Stores outlets and two new concept MU&amp;KU stores.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store</a> continues to rollout new private label brands including Suko and Anyday to target different demographics to stimulate additional demand. Valuations are attractive on a 4.9x forward PER.</li>
</ul>



Matahari Department Store saw a slower performance in 3Q2023 but looks well set for a recovery in 4Q2023 and early 2024 with elections, Chinese New Year and Lebaran ahead.
The company plans to increase its store count by six in 2024, with four new format Matahari Department Stores outlets and two new concept MU&amp;KU stores.

Matahari Department Store continues to rollout new private label brands including Suko and Anyday to target different demographics to stimulate additional demand. Valuations are attractive on a 4.9x forward PER.


Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) - Recovery in the Offing

Indonesia

PT MDS Retailing Tbk is an Indonesian retail company that operates department store chains and online channels under the Matahari brand. It offers a diverse range of products including clothing, fashion apparel, accessories, bags, shoes, cosmetics, beauty products, and household appliances. The company also provides management consulting services. PT MDS Retailing Tbk was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Tangerang, Indonesia.

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MDS Retailing (LPPF IJ)

Asia Calling: Relative Value in EM - From Short Beta to Smart Alpha

* The multi-year USD rally has been powerful, but in my view will gradually end and reverse this year* Fed tightening is not necessarily...

Callum Henderson

Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) - Private Label Revamp

The company will not open any new stores in the 2H2024 as it focuses on reservations and driving its private labels, including Suko and Nevada, and...

Angus Mackintosh

Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) - Measuring Up With Initiatives

Matahari Department Store will slow new store build-out to focus on improving the productivity of existing stores, with the refurbishment of six...

Angus Mackintosh

Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) - Primed for Recovery

Matahari Department Store will open 4-6 new stores in 2024 but close 10 underperforming stores, with a continued focus on new DP brands like SUKO....

Angus Mackintosh

Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) - Recovery in the Offing

Matahari Department Store saw a slower performance in 3Q2023 but looks well set for a recovery in 4Q2023 and early 2024 with elections, Chinese New...

Angus Mackintosh

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