Pan-Asia Equity Bottom-up, Wickhams Hill

Lloyd Moffatt

Pan-Asia Equity Bottom-up

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Singapore listed MM2 Asia Ltd (MM2 SP) looks to be the most immediately actionable<br>of the 7 stocks added to our list of fallen angels.</li>
<li>Keeping in Singapore, luxury watch retailer Hour Glass (HG SP) has recently<br>commenced repurchases under a 10% buyback mandate.</li>
<li>Across to Indonesia, Bundamedik (BMHS IJ) is the latest hospital to list on the IDX.<br>They’re a premium women and children's hospital with leading IVF clinics.</li>
</ul>


Singapore listed MM2 Asia Ltd (MM2 SP) looks to be the most immediately actionable of the 7 stocks added to our list of fallen angels.
Keeping in Singapore, luxury watch retailer Hour Glass (HG SP) has recently commenced repurchases under a 10% buyback mandate.
Across to Indonesia, Bundamedik (BMHS IJ) is the latest hospital to list on the IDX. They’re a premium women and children's hospital with leading IVF clinics.


Wickhams Hill Research | Under-The-Radar Issue 1

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a> booked a -23.6% Yoy decline in sales in 1Q2021, as SSSG declined by -36.4% YoY in 1Q2021 but an even greater -37.4% versus 1Q2019, which management is increasingly using as a benchmark. </p>
<p>The company saw its gross profit declined by -24.2% YoY in 1Q2021 and -41.0% versus 1Q2019 but there was some respite from the higher average basket size. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a>  suffered a net loss of (IDR95.4bn) during the 1Q2021 versus a profit of IDR143bn in 1Q2019. </p>
<p>In terms of geography,  Greater Jakarta saw the continuing impact from PSBB restriction and Sumatra was the best performing area. Segment-wise, children's clothing was the least impacted, whilst women's clothing and cosmetics saw the worst impact during 1Q2021.</p>
<p>The company operated a total of 147 stores in 1Q2021, with 23 of those on its watchlist for potential closure and 13 of those due to close after Lebaran.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a> is well prepared for the Lebaran festive period, which will likely be shorter than normal.  It has got its merchandise in early ahead of Lebaran given that mobility restrictions have been tightened over the holiday period.</p>
<p>The company continues to build on its Matahari Rewards program with 6.6m active members as of the end of March 2021.</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a> continues to see increasing sales through digital channels but it is still working on its platform upgrade so the contribution remains relatively small.</p>
<p>The outlook is relatively uncertain for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a> with a shorter and more restrictive Lebaran period ahead, which is normally the peak season for the company's customer base to shop</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a> looks cheap versus its peers but there remain risks to earnings over the Lebaran, which management openly admits are difficult to predict. Longer-term the recovery is likely to be protracted given further store closures and a lack of major sales through digital channels.</p>
<p>Valuations look relatively attractive versus history with the company trading on 13.1x FY21E PER and 7.2x FY22E PER versus its 5-year average forward PER of 12x but we would buy on weakness given some potentially choppy waters ahead.</p>
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Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) booked a -23.6% Yoy decline in sales in 1Q2021, as SSSG declined by -36.4% YoY in 1Q2021 but an even greater -37.4% versus 1Q2019, which management is increasingly using as a benchmark. 
The company saw its gross profit declined by -24.2% YoY in 1Q2021 and -41.0% versus 1Q2019 but there was some respite from the higher average basket size. 
Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)  suffered a net loss of (IDR95.4bn) during the 1Q2021 versus a profit of IDR143bn in 1Q2019. 
In terms of geography,  Greater Jakarta saw the continuing impact from PSBB restriction and Sumatra was the best performing area. Segment-wise, children's clothing was the least impacted, whilst women's clothing and cosmetics saw the worst impact during 1Q2021.
The company operated a total of 147 stores in 1Q2021, with 23 of those on its watchlist for potential closure and 13 of those due to close after Lebaran.
Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) is well prepared for the Lebaran festive period, which will likely be shorter than normal.  It has got its merchandise in early ahead of Lebaran given that mobility restrictions have been tightened over the holiday period.
The company continues to build on its Matahari Rewards program with 6.6m active members as of the end of March 2021.

Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) continues to see increasing sales through digital channels but it is still working on its platform upgrade so the contribution remains relatively small.
The outlook is relatively uncertain for Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) with a shorter and more restrictive Lebaran period ahead, which is normally the peak season for the company's customer base to shop
Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) looks cheap versus its peers but there remain risks to earnings over the Lebaran, which management openly admits are difficult to predict. Longer-term the recovery is likely to be protracted given further store closures and a lack of major sales through digital channels.
Valuations look relatively attractive versus history with the company trading on 13.1x FY21E PER and 7.2x FY22E PER versus its 5-year average forward PER of 12x but we would buy on weakness given some potentially choppy waters ahead.





Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) - Uncertain Waters Ahead of Lebaran

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<p>The LQ45 Index is a market cap weighted index of the 45 most liquid stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The LQ45 Index covers at least 70% of the stock market capitalization and transaction values in the Indonesia Stock Market.</p><p>The IDX has announced the changes to the LQ45 Index as a part of the February review. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medco-energi-internasional-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20844:1" rel="noopener">Medco Energi (MEDC IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a> have been added to the index, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-rejeki-isman-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20178:1" rel="noopener">Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ)</a> have been deleted from the index.</p><p>We expect passive funds will need to buy a lot of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a> in terms of days of ADV, while there will be over 2 days of ADV to sell on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ)</a>. </p><p>The changes are effective after the close of trading on 29 January, so there are only 4 trading days before passive funds have to rebalance their portfolios. Active funds benchmarked to the LQ54 index will also trade over the next few days so as not to veer too far from their benchmark.</p>

The LQ45 Index is a market cap weighted index of the 45 most liquid stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The LQ45 Index covers at least 70% of the stock market capitalization and transaction values in the Indonesia Stock Market.The IDX has announced the changes to the LQ45 Index as a part of the February review. Medco Energi (MEDC IJ) and Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ) have been added to the index, while PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) and Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ) have been deleted from the index.We expect passive funds will need to buy a lot of Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ) in terms of days of ADV, while there will be over 2 days of ADV to sell on PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ). The changes are effective after the close of trading on 29 January, so there are only 4 trading days before passive funds have to rebalance their portfolios. Active funds benchmarked to the LQ54 index will also trade over the next few days so as not to veer too far from their benchmark.

LQ45 Index Rebalance: TPIA, MEDC In; SCMA, SRIL Out

<p>The LQ45 Index is a market cap weighted index of the 45 most liquid stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The LQ45 Index covers at least 70% of the stock market capitalization and transaction values in the Indonesia Stock Market.</p><p>The next rebalance of the LQ45 Index will be effective after the close of trading on 29 January and will be announced latest by 26 January, though it is likely that it could be announced as early as 22 January post market close.</p><p>Stocks that could be included in the index are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-brisyariah-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26981:1" rel="noopener">Bank Brisyariah (BRIS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kimia-farma-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8524:1" rel="noopener">Kimia Farma Persero (KAEF IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timah-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11174:1" rel="noopener">Timah Persero (TINS IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pp-london-sumatra-indones-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9039:1" rel="noopener">Pp London Sumatra Indones (LSIP IJ)</a>, while stocks that could be deleted from the index are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-rejeki-isman-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20178:1" rel="noopener">Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/summarecon-agung-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5693:1" rel="noopener">Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wijaya-karya-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1877:1" rel="noopener">Wijaya Karya Persero (WIKA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasa-marga-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12747:1" rel="noopener">Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ)</a>.</p><p>Given the subjective nature of stock inclusion and exclusion, plus the short time frame between announcement of the changes and the implementation, the adds outperform the deletes between announcement and implementation.</p><p>Though passive assets tracking the index are limited, the LQ45 is a very popular benchmark for mutual funds and pension funds and active managers will also be trading the stocks to realign their portfolios to the new index names.</p>

The LQ45 Index is a market cap weighted index of the 45 most liquid stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The LQ45 Index covers at least 70% of the stock market capitalization and transaction values in the Indonesia Stock Market.The next rebalance of the LQ45 Index will be effective after the close of trading on 29 January and will be announced latest by 26 January, though it is likely that it could be announced as early as 22 January post market close.Stocks that could be included in the index are Bank Brisyariah (BRIS IJ), Kimia Farma Persero (KAEF IJ), Timah Persero (TINS IJ) and Pp London Sumatra Indones (LSIP IJ), while stocks that could be deleted from the index are Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ), Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ), Wijaya Karya Persero (WIKA IJ) and Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ).Given the subjective nature of stock inclusion and exclusion, plus the short time frame between announcement of the changes and the implementation, the adds outperform the deletes between announcement and implementation.Though passive assets tracking the index are limited, the LQ45 is a very popular benchmark for mutual funds and pension funds and active managers will also be trading the stocks to realign their portfolios to the new index names.

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Candidates for Change

<p>Leading Indonesian retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> released its 9M2020 results last week, with sales down by -34% to IDR10.2tn for 9M2020 but the group's e-commerce sales increased by +394% over the period, signaling huge success in the company's omnichannel strategy </p>
<p>3Q2020 net revenue saw a much better performance with a +62.1% QoQ increase in net sales to IDR3.4tn against IDR1.1tn in 2Q2020, in spite of continuing measures imposed by the government in Jakarta to restrict movement and mall traffic in the face of the pandemic (PSBB).</p>
<p>The improvement in sales comes across all business segments with especially strong growth in digital sales from MAPEMALL, Zara, Planet Sports, and DigiMAP. </p>
<section class="figure">The group's 3Q2020 numbers were further impacted due to pre-planned measures to clear aging inventory and also higher supply chain costs due to the pandemic, and some short-term staff cost increases. </section>
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<section class="figure">Digital sales also remained elevated even after store openings, boosted by targeted shopper marketing via MAP Club, as well as exclusive product launches across sports, fashion, and F&amp;B platforms.</section>
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<section class="figure"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> aims to run a 360 degree retail model covering sports, fashion, health, beauty, F&amp;B, and convenience stores, as well as a product mix from value to premium price points, brought together under the company's MAP Club Loyalty App.</section>
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<p>The company expects continuing momentum into the 4Q2020, which will help to confirm the ongoing recovery and we would also expect margins to improve given less need for discounting, with a healthier inventory position.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> trades on 22.6x FY21E PER and 15x FY22E PER and it continues to be one of our top picks for the recovery in Indonesia, with a significant increase in exposure to e-commerce and a gradual broadening of it South East Asian exposure, including Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines.</p>
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Leading Indonesian retailer Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) released its 9M2020 results last week, with sales down by -34% to IDR10.2tn for 9M2020 but the group's e-commerce sales increased by +394% over the period, signaling huge success in the company's omnichannel strategy 
3Q2020 net revenue saw a much better performance with a +62.1% QoQ increase in net sales to IDR3.4tn against IDR1.1tn in 2Q2020, in spite of continuing measures imposed by the government in Jakarta to restrict movement and mall traffic in the face of the pandemic (PSBB).
The improvement in sales comes across all business segments with especially strong growth in digital sales from MAPEMALL, Zara, Planet Sports, and DigiMAP. 
The group's 3Q2020 numbers were further impacted due to pre-planned measures to clear aging inventory and also higher supply chain costs due to the pandemic, and some short-term staff cost increases. 





Digital sales also remained elevated even after store openings, boosted by targeted shopper marketing via MAP Club, as well as exclusive product launches across sports, fashion, and F&amp;B platforms.






Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) aims to run a 360 degree retail model covering sports, fashion, health, beauty, F&amp;B, and convenience stores, as well as a product mix from value to premium price points, brought together under the company's MAP Club Loyalty App.









The company expects continuing momentum into the 4Q2020, which will help to confirm the ongoing recovery and we would also expect margins to improve given less need for discounting, with a healthier inventory position.
Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) trades on 22.6x FY21E PER and 15x FY22E PER and it continues to be one of our top picks for the recovery in Indonesia, with a significant increase in exposure to e-commerce and a gradual broadening of it South East Asian exposure, including Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines.



Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Digitally Remastered

Indonesia

PT MDS Retailing Tbk is an Indonesian retail company that operates department store chains and online channels under the Matahari brand. It offers a diverse range of products including clothing, fashion apparel, accessories, bags, shoes, cosmetics, beauty products, and household appliances. The company also provides management consulting services. PT MDS Retailing Tbk was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Tangerang, Indonesia.

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MDS Retailing (LPPF IJ)

Wickhams Hill Research | Under-The-Radar Issue 1

Singapore listed MM2 Asia Ltd (MM2 SP) looks to be the most immediately actionableof the 7 stocks added to our list of fallen angels.

Lloyd Moffatt

Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) - Uncertain Waters Ahead of Lebaran

Matahari Department Store faces an uncertain outlook ahead of Lebaran and will also close 13 stores after the festive period, and without the...

Angus Mackintosh

LQ45 Index Rebalance: TPIA, MEDC In; SCMA, SRIL Out

TPIA and MEDC have been included in the LQ45 Index while SCMA and SRIL have been deleted. The changes are effective at the close on 29 January and...

Brian Freitas

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Candidates for Change

The LQ45 rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 29 January and the announcement will be made in the next few days. There could...

Brian Freitas

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Digitally Remastered

MAPI is one of our top picks for the recovery in Indonesia, with a significant increase in exposure to e-commerce and a gradual broadening of its...

Angus Mackintosh

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