Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Countries across the ASEAN region continue to invest on developing their respective EV markets with governments introducing new initiatives and offering further incentives.</li>
<li>The price war among Chinese EV players has escalated in recent month, causing pressure on non-Chinese players. European and Japanese EV makers are increasingly looking at ASEAN for cost advantage.</li>
<li>The four companies we looked at have reported earnings and we have discussed their latest results and our investment thesis.</li>
</ul>


Countries across the ASEAN region continue to invest on developing their respective EV markets with governments introducing new initiatives and offering further incentives.
The price war among Chinese EV players has escalated in recent month, causing pressure on non-Chinese players. European and Japanese EV makers are increasingly looking at ASEAN for cost advantage.
The four companies we looked at have reported earnings and we have discussed their latest results and our investment thesis.


ASEAN EV Ecosystem Update: Initiatives to Build a Regional EV Ecosystem Continues

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Merdeka Battery Materials / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>1Q results were below estimates, however we remain optimistic on 2Q earnings as nickel matte ASP could improve on higher LME price</li><li>SCM could double its production capacity to &gt;20mt by 2025 as demand pour in from HPAL plants in IMIP</li><li>We maintain our FY24-25F and an unchanged TP of Rp700. Reiterate Buy rating on value upside from growth projects</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

1Q results were below estimates, however we remain optimistic on 2Q earnings as nickel matte ASP could improve on higher LME priceSCM could double its production capacity to &gt;20mt by 2025 as demand pour in from HPAL plants in IMIPWe maintain our FY24-25F and an unchanged TP of Rp700. Reiterate Buy rating on value upside from growth projectsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Merdeka Battery Materials - 1Q24 Earnings Miss..

<ul>
<li>EV supply chain is at a nascent stage in ASEAN and EV adoption in the region lags behind developed markets despite boasting a large population with a burgeoning middle class.</li>
<li>However, Governments in the region continue to introduce new initiatives and offer incentives to promote the sector, while companies continue to attract large investment to develop the EV market.</li>
<li>The four companies we looked at have reported earnings and we have discussed their latest results and our investment thesis.</li>
</ul>


EV supply chain is at a nascent stage in ASEAN and EV adoption in the region lags behind developed markets despite boasting a large population with a burgeoning middle class.
However, Governments in the region continue to introduce new initiatives and offer incentives to promote the sector, while companies continue to attract large investment to develop the EV market.
The four companies we looked at have reported earnings and we have discussed their latest results and our investment thesis.


ASEAN EV Ecosystem Update: Further Initiatives to Build a Regional EV Ecosystem

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a> family of indices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, the KRX New Deal Index and a global index ends on 31 January.</li>
<li>The January rebalance of the IDX30 and LQ45 indices will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 January.</li>
<li>There have been huge inflows into the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> ETFs for another week. This will increase the impact on the index changes at the next rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the NIFTY family of indices, Nikkei 225, STAR50, the KRX New Deal Index and a global index ends on 31 January.
The January rebalance of the IDX30 and LQ45 indices will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 January.
There have been huge inflows into the CSI 300 Index ETFs for another week. This will increase the impact on the index changes at the next rebalance.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

<ul>
<li>There are 4 changes each for the IDX30 Index and the LQ45 Index at the upcoming rebalance to be implemented at the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>The largest passive inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-cbp-sukses-makmur-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17651:1" rel="noopener">Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-battery-materials-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36864:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Battery Materials (MBMA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indah-kiat-pulp-paper-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20064:1" rel="noopener">Indah Kiat Pulp &amp; Paper (INKP IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pertamina-geothermal-energy-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36725:1" rel="noopener">Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 4 changes each for the IDX30 Index and the LQ45 Index at the upcoming rebalance to be implemented at the close on 31 January.
The largest passive inflows are expected in Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ), Merdeka Battery Materials (MBMA IJ), Indah Kiat Pulp &amp; Paper (INKP IJ) and Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO IJ). 
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Four Changes for Each Index

Indonesia

PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk specializes in the mining and processing of strategic minerals, including nickel and cobalt, essential for electric vehicle (EV) batteries. The company operates through mining, manufacturing, and other segments, producing various nickel products and other metals. It was founded in 2019 and is headquartered in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia.

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Merdeka Battery Materials (MBMA IJ)

ASEAN EV Ecosystem Update: Initiatives to Build a Regional EV Ecosystem Continues

ASEAN countries continue to invest on developing the EV markets. The price war among Chinese EV players has escalated, and European and Japanese...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Merdeka Battery Materials - 1Q24 Earnings Miss..

1Q results were below estimates, however we remain optimistic on 2Q earnings as nickel matte ASP could improve on higher LME price

BRI Danareksa Research

ASEAN EV Ecosystem Update: Further Initiatives to Build a Regional EV Ecosystem

Development of a robust EV ecosystem remains a primary goal of the governments in the region. Governments continue to introduce new initiatives...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

IDX30/LQ45 Index Rebalance: Four Changes for Each Index

There are 4 changes each for the IDX30 and LQ45. Implementation is in 4 trading days. There is over 1 day of ADV to trade on a lot of stocks. Most...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ASEAN EV Ecosystem Update: Initiatives to Build a Regional EV Ecosystem Continues

​ASEAN countries continue to invest on developing the EV markets. The price war among Chinese EV players has escalated, and European and Japanese...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Merdeka Battery Materials - 1Q24 Earnings Miss..

1Q results were below estimates, however we remain optimistic on 2Q earnings as nickel matte ASP could improve on higher LME price

BRI Danareksa Research

ASEAN EV Ecosystem Update: Further Initiatives to Build a Regional EV Ecosystem

Development of a robust EV ecosystem remains a primary goal of the governments in the region. Governments continue to introduce new initiatives...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

IDX30/​​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Four Changes for Each Index

There are 4 changes each for the IDX30 and LQ45. Implementation is in 4 trading days. There is over 1 day of ADV to trade on a lot of stocks. Most...

Brian Freitas

ASEAN countries continue to invest on developing the EV markets. The price war among Chinese EV players has escalated, and European and Japanese...

IDX30/LQ45 Index Rebalance: Four Changes for Each Index