ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erajaya-swasembada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18869:1" rel="noopener">Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ)</a> is back on track with its handset business, with stronger volume growth driven by more affordable models from Infinix and Techno brands.</li>
<li>The company's buildout of its electrical retailer Erablue, a JV with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mobile-world-investment-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22638:1" rel="noopener">Mobile World</a>, is gaining momentum and should become a significant growth driver along with Grand Lucky supermarket.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erajaya-swasembada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18869:1" rel="noopener">Erajaya</a> will slow its store buildout this year as it focuses on productivity ny it still expected to add 200 new stores over in Indonesia. Valuation is attractive.</li>
</ul>



Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) is back on track with its handset business, with stronger volume growth driven by more affordable models from Infinix and Techno brands.
The company's buildout of its electrical retailer Erablue, a JV with Mobile World, is gaining momentum and should become a significant growth driver along with Grand Lucky supermarket.

Erajaya will slow its store buildout this year as it focuses on productivity ny it still expected to add 200 new stores over in Indonesia. Valuation is attractive.


Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) - Less New Stores with Higher Volumes

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> has revealed more detail on the impact of boycotts stemming from the Gaza conflict on some of its brands, most notably Starbucks but also including Zara. </li>
<li>Management remains upbeat about the outlook for the expansion of new retail outlets across its brand portfolio in Indonesia and Southeast Asia but has reduced guidance for Starbucks. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa</a> remains the best proxy for Indonesian retail with any weakness in the share price an opportunity, with valuations remaining attractive. </li>
</ul>



Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) has revealed more detail on the impact of boycotts stemming from the Gaza conflict on some of its brands, most notably Starbucks but also including Zara. 
Management remains upbeat about the outlook for the expansion of new retail outlets across its brand portfolio in Indonesia and Southeast Asia but has reduced guidance for Starbucks. 

Mitra Adiperkasa remains the best proxy for Indonesian retail with any weakness in the share price an opportunity, with valuations remaining attractive. 


Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Less Seasonal Cheer, More New Year's Resolutions

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> finished the year with strong sales growth of +17.4% YoY in 4Q2023 with solid growth across all segments and improving margins. </li>
<li>The company continues to add to its 150-strong brand portfolio in Indonesia, as well as extending its reach further in Southeast Asia and growing its omnichannel capabilities. </li>
<li>MAPI remains our top retail pick in Indonesia with its focus on the resilient upper-middle segment in Indonesia and increasing regional exposure. Valuations remain attractive at 12.5x FY2024E PER.</li>
</ul>



Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) finished the year with strong sales growth of +17.4% YoY in 4Q2023 with solid growth across all segments and improving margins. 
The company continues to add to its 150-strong brand portfolio in Indonesia, as well as extending its reach further in Southeast Asia and growing its omnichannel capabilities. 
MAPI remains our top retail pick in Indonesia with its focus on the resilient upper-middle segment in Indonesia and increasing regional exposure. Valuations remain attractive at 12.5x FY2024E PER.


Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Pushing Retail Boundaries

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Tower Bersama Infrastructure / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

Ramayana Lestari Sentosa / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Iconic Indonesian mass-market department store retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramayana-lestari-sentosa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12266:1" rel="noopener">Ramayana Lestari Sentosa (RALS IJ)</a> has struggled with sluggish growth this year, especially over Lebaran but management remains confident in some recovery in 2H2023.</li>
<li>The company embarked on transformation pre-pandemic but COVID put a brake on this change and forced a number of stores to close and resurrection has begun again but slowly.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramayana-lestari-sentosa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12266:1" rel="noopener">Ramayana</a> is taking a conservative approach this year, opting not to expand its store network as anticipates weakened purchasing power but pre-election spending could provide a boost. Valuations are attractive.</li>
</ul>


Iconic Indonesian mass-market department store retailer Ramayana Lestari Sentosa (RALS IJ) has struggled with sluggish growth this year, especially over Lebaran but management remains confident in some recovery in 2H2023.
The company embarked on transformation pre-pandemic but COVID put a brake on this change and forced a number of stores to close and resurrection has begun again but slowly.

Ramayana is taking a conservative approach this year, opting not to expand its store network as anticipates weakened purchasing power but pre-election spending could provide a boost. Valuations are attractive.


Ramayana Lestari Sentosa (RALS IJ) -A Challenging Transformation Process

Indonesia

PT Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk is a leading lifestyle retailer in Indonesia, operating a diversified portfolio of over 3,800 retail stores across various categories including sports, fashion, department stores, kids, food & beverage, and lifestyle products. The company also acts as a distributor for several international brands. It was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia.

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Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)

Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) - Less New Stores with Higher Volumes

Erajaya will slow its store buildout this year as it focuses on productivity ny it is still expected to add 200 new stores in Indonesia. Valuation...

Angus Mackintosh