Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Pan Brothers' H1/19 results are reasonable, thanks to the decent growth in revenue (+9%) and EBITDA (+19%). The EBITDA margin improved slightly on reduced SG&A expenses, as the company incurred lower marketing expenses and staff costs. That said, debt remains elevated. We note that debt could pick up further if Pan Brothers executes its plans to expand plant capacity to 130 mn pieces by 2021. Cash flow also remains poor. Moreover, management has guided for negative CFO in FY 2020. For the rest of FY 2019, we foresee revenue growth of 10% and stable EBITDA margins, supported by higher utilisation of existing capacity. We also expect the financial profile to remain broadly stable, aided by cash collections during H2.  .

   Pan Brothers' H1/19 results are reasonable, thanks to the decent growth in revenue (+9%) and EBITDA (+19%). The EBITDA margin improved slightly on reduced SG&A expenses, as the company incurred lower marketing expenses and staff costs. That said, debt remains elevated. We note that debt could pick up further if Pan Brothers executes its plans to expand plant capacity to 130 mn pieces by 2021. Cash flow also remains poor. Moreover, management has guided for negative CFO in FY 2020.    For the rest of FY 2019, we foresee revenue growth of 10% and stable EBITDA margins, supported by higher utilisation of existing capacity. We also expect the financial profile to remain broadly stable, aided by cash collections during H2.  . 

Pan Brothers - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2019 Results - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar. 

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 02 Aug 2019

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Indonesian real estate sector, including the background of the last cycle, sales trends, regulatory actions and expectations. We also comment broadly on the FY 2018 and Q1/19 results of real estate companies under our coverage.

   In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Indonesian real estate sector, including the background of the last cycle, sales trends, regulatory actions and expectations. We also comment broadly on the FY 2018 and Q1/19 results of real estate companies under our coverage. 

Asia HY Monthly - Indonesian Property Update (2019) - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for July includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

   The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for July includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - July 2019 - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we discuss the vulnerability of Asian credits to external shocks, with the threat this year being the potential fallout from a protracted Sino-US trade war. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

   In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we discuss the vulnerability of Asian credits to external shocks, with the threat this year being the potential fallout from a protracted Sino-US trade war.    The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Vulnerability Of Asian Credit Market To External Shocks (2019) - Lucror Analytics

Indonesia

PT Pan Brothers Tbk is one of Indonesia's largest garment manufacturing companies, specializing in technical, functional, and active wear, as well as woven and cut-and-sesewn knit garments. They produce a wide range of apparel, including ultra-light downs, parkas, winter bottoms, and activewear for sports and outdoor activities. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Tangerang, Indonesia.

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Pan Brothers (PBRX IJ)

Pan Brothers - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2019 Results - Lucror Analytics

Pan Brothers' H1/19 results are reasonable, thanks to the decent growth in revenue (+9%) and EBITDA (+19%). The EBITDA margin improved slightly...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 02 Aug 2019

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Indonesian Property Update (2019) - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Indonesian real estate sector, including the background of the last cycle, sales...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - July 2019 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for July includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Vulnerability Of Asian Credit Market To External Shocks (2019) - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we discuss the vulnerability of Asian credits to external shocks, with the threat this year being the...

Lucror Analytics

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