Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Amman Mineral Internasional / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following feedback from a global index provider, the IDX (and KSEI) have released the list of shareholders that own more than 1% of a listed company.</li>
<li>Going through the list, we find many strategic holders of stock above 1% and identify 7 companies that could see a float reduction and passive selling in May. </li>
<li>The lower float could see one stock deleted from the index; two others are close. But the risk of Indonesia being downgraded to a frontier market is now behind us.</li>
</ul>


Following feedback from a global index provider, the IDX (and KSEI) have released the list of shareholders that own more than 1% of a listed company.
Going through the list, we find many strategic holders of stock above 1% and identify 7 companies that could see a float reduction and passive selling in May. 
The lower float could see one stock deleted from the index; two others are close. But the risk of Indonesia being downgraded to a frontier market is now behind us.


Indonesia: Holdings Larger than 1% Disclosed; Stocks Affected & Impact

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-resources-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15734:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ)</a>' recent rally could result in the stock being added to a global index in February. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-resources-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15734:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ)</a> trades marginally cheaper than its largest peers but all these stocks trade at more than 40x trailing PE.</li>
<li>Positioning appears stretched following the recent rally and there could be downside over the near-term. Trimming positions into strength appears prudent.</li>
</ul>



Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ)' recent rally could result in the stock being added to a global index in February. 

Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) trades marginally cheaper than its largest peers but all these stocks trade at more than 40x trailing PE.
Positioning appears stretched following the recent rally and there could be downside over the near-term. Trimming positions into strength appears prudent.


Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ): Potential Global Index Inclusion in Feb

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index rebalance ended on 31 December. The changes should be announced the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 30 January.</li>
<li>We highlight 3 potential inclusions and 3 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. Depending on the index committee discretion, the actual number of changes could be lower/higher.</li>
<li>The impact on the forecast inclusions is not very high but the impact on the forecast deletion is much higher.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index rebalance ended on 31 December. The changes should be announced the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 30 January.
We highlight 3 potential inclusions and 3 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. Depending on the index committee discretion, the actual number of changes could be lower/higher.
The impact on the forecast inclusions is not very high but the impact on the forecast deletion is much higher.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2026): Identifying Potential Index Changes

Dian Swastatika Sentosa / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dian-swastatika-sentosa-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15281:1" rel="noopener">Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ)</a> will be added to a global index in August and that should come as a surprise to most of the market.</li>
<li>The stock is up 10x over the last 18 months and liquidity has shown a marked improvement in the last year.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dian-swastatika-sentosa-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15281:1" rel="noopener">Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ)</a> trades at nosebleed valuations and there is the risk of a sell off following index inclusion.</li>
</ul>



Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) will be added to a global index in August and that should come as a surprise to most of the market.
The stock is up 10x over the last 18 months and liquidity has shown a marked improvement in the last year.

Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) trades at nosebleed valuations and there is the risk of a sell off following index inclusion.


Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ): Surprise, Surprise!

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-petrindo-jaya-kreasi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44320:1" rel="noopener">PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk (CUAN IJ)</a> could be added to a global index in August but there are multiple risks for the stock.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-petrindo-jaya-kreasi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44320:1" rel="noopener">PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk (CUAN IJ)</a> trades at significantly higher multiples compared to its peers and the recent price spike raises the risk of addition to the UMA list.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-petrindo-jaya-kreasi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44320:1" rel="noopener">PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk (CUAN IJ)</a> has outperformed its peers and positioning is big, raising the risk of the stock moving lower over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>



PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk (CUAN IJ) could be added to a global index in August but there are multiple risks for the stock.

PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk (CUAN IJ) trades at significantly higher multiples compared to its peers and the recent price spike raises the risk of addition to the UMA list.

PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk (CUAN IJ) has outperformed its peers and positioning is big, raising the risk of the stock moving lower over the next few weeks.


Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (CUAN IJ): Potential Global Index Inclusion & The Risks

Indonesia

PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi is a holding company engaged in mineral and energy mining, primarily focusing on coal and gold operations through its subsidiaries. It produces thermal and metallurgical coal products and explores for resources including gold, silver, copper, and silica sand. The company also offers mining contracting, engineering, procurement, and construction services, as well as offshore supply base and other infrastructure services. Headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, the company was founded in 2008.

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Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (CUAN IJ)

Indonesia: Holdings Larger than 1% Disclosed; Stocks Affected & Impact

Stocks that are expected to be downweighted (or deleted) have underperformed the index and peers. Index providers could announce their future...

Brian Freitas

Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ): Potential Global Index Inclusion in Feb

Bumi Resources could be added to a global index in Feb. Positioning appears stretched and valuations are expensive. Trimming positions into...

Brian Freitas

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2026): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We highlight 3 sets of changes for the LQ45 in January. The forecast adds have surged while the forecast deletes have dropped. Historically, adds...

Brian Freitas

Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ): Surprise, Surprise!

Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) got slammed yesterday following a global index providers decision to add the stock to the index at half the...

Brian Freitas

Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (CUAN IJ): Potential Global Index Inclusion & The Risks

Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (CUAN) could be added to a global index in Aug. There are multiple risks for the stock with free float, valuations,...

Brian Freitas

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