Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Indonesia in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on XL Axiata, Telkom Indonesia (Persero), Vale Indonesia, Bank Mandiri Persero, Astra International, Sariguna Primatirta, Aneka Tambang Persero.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Indonesia in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on XL Axiata, Telkom Indonesia (Persero), Vale Indonesia, Bank Mandiri Persero, Astra International, Sariguna Primatirta, Aneka Tambang Persero.


MS-Indonesia Index Earning Revision (Jan): XL Axiata, Telkom Indonesia, Vale Indonesia

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>SMGR reported 4Q24 net profit of almost Rp0, leading to FY24 net profit of Rp720bn (-67% yoy, 62%/59% of ours/cons hence, a miss).</li><li>Due to market share strategy, we expect SMGR vol to grow by 2%/3% in FY25F/FY26F (higher than INTP), yet we expect ASP to grow by 0.5%.</li><li>We cut our FY25F/FY26F EPS by 23%/23%. Despite this and ASP risk, we upgrade our rating to Buy amid buyback and depressed valuation.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SMGR reported 4Q24 net profit of almost Rp0, leading to FY24 net profit of Rp720bn (-67% yoy, 62%/59% of ours/cons hence, a miss).Due to market share strategy, we expect SMGR vol to grow by 2%/3% in FY25F/FY26F (higher than INTP), yet we expect ASP to grow by 0.5%.We cut our FY25F/FY26F EPS by 23%/23%. Despite this and ASP risk, we upgrade our rating to Buy amid buyback and depressed valuation.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semen Indonesia (SMGR.IJ) Trimming Forecasts Post 4Q24 Earnings Miss

<ul><li>SMGR’s management reaffirmed its ~3% vol growth target and 1% higher ASP in FY24F, seeing IKN as the LT demand driver.</li><li>ASP is expected to improve by 1.8% in May-Jun24, implying the ASP decline will narrow to -1.5% YTD in Jun24, based on our estimate.</li><li>Reiterate Buy rating with a TP of Rp6,700 on improving outlook and attractive EV/t of US$ 58/t (-1.5SD of the 10-year mean).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SMGR’s management reaffirmed its ~3% vol growth target and 1% higher ASP in FY24F, seeing IKN as the LT demand driver.ASP is expected to improve by 1.8% in May-Jun24, implying the ASP decline will narrow to -1.5% YTD in Jun24, based on our estimate.Reiterate Buy rating with a TP of Rp6,700 on improving outlook and attractive EV/t of US$ 58/t (-1.5SD of the 10-year mean).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semen Indonesia - A Better Optimism Following the May24 Price Hikes

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>SMGR recorded a revenue of IDR8.4tn in 1Q24, marking a contraction of -6.3% YoY (vs IDR8.9tn in FY22) and reflecting 21.3%/20.8% of MNCS/Consensus estimates.</li><li>The net profit plummeted by -16.0% YoY to IDR472bn with NPM of 5.6%, reflecting 20.5%/17.6% of MNCS/Consensus target.</li><li>However, we estimate a probability that SMGR will cut its ASP due to declining volume, while supply may potentially increase with the new player entering Indonesian market (Hongshi Group).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SMGR recorded a revenue of IDR8.4tn in 1Q24, marking a contraction of -6.3% YoY (vs IDR8.9tn in FY22) and reflecting 21.3%/20.8% of MNCS/Consensus estimates.The net profit plummeted by -16.0% YoY to IDR472bn with NPM of 5.6%, reflecting 20.5%/17.6% of MNCS/Consensus target.However, we estimate a probability that SMGR will cut its ASP due to declining volume, while supply may potentially increase with the new player entering Indonesian market (Hongshi Group).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PT Semen Indonesia Tbk (SMGR IJ) - Facing Challenges Head-On

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semen-indonesia-persero-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11161:1" rel="noopener">Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ)</a> released a positive set of results in FY2023 despite a difficult operating environment and intense competition through increasing efficiencies linked to sustainability at the same time. </li>
<li>The company continues to work on improving production efficiency as well as distribution through greater digitalisation and is benefiting from synergies from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semen-baturaja-persero-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12375:1" rel="noopener">Semen Baturaja</a>.</li>
<li>Increasing government infrastructure spending will help to drive growth in demand for bulk cement, especially from the new capital, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semen-indonesia-persero-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11161:1" rel="noopener">Semen Indonesia</a> being a prime beneficiary. Valuations look attractive. </li>
</ul>



Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ) released a positive set of results in FY2023 despite a difficult operating environment and intense competition through increasing efficiencies linked to sustainability at the same time. 
The company continues to work on improving production efficiency as well as distribution through greater digitalisation and is benefiting from synergies from Semen Baturaja.
Increasing government infrastructure spending will help to drive growth in demand for bulk cement, especially from the new capital, with Semen Indonesia being a prime beneficiary. Valuations look attractive. 


Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ) - Solidifying Indonesia's Future Path

Indonesia

PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk, also known as SIG, is an Indonesian state-owned holding company providing building material solutions. The company's main business is in the cement sector and its derivative products such as concrete, mortar, precast, and aggregate, with additional services including construction, logistics, and industrial estate management. It was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Semen Indonesia Group (SMGR IJ)

MS-Indonesia Index Earning Revision (Jan): XL Axiata, Telkom Indonesia, Vale Indonesia

We analyzed MS-Indonesia's consensus for Jan 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in XL Axiata (EXCL IJ), Telkom Indonesia (Persero) (TLKM IJ), Vale...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Semen Indonesia (SMGR.IJ) Trimming Forecasts Post 4Q24 Earnings Miss

SMGR reported 4Q24 net profit of almost Rp0, leading to FY24 net profit of Rp720bn (-67% yoy, 62%/59% of ours/cons hence, a miss).

BRI Danareksa Research

Semen Indonesia - A Better Optimism Following the May24 Price Hikes

SMGR’s management reaffirmed its ~3% vol growth target and 1% higher ASP in FY24F, seeing IKN as the LT demand driver. ASP is expected to improve...

BRI Danareksa Research

PT Semen Indonesia Tbk (SMGR IJ) - Facing Challenges Head-On

SMGR recorded a revenue of IDR8.4tn in 1Q24, marking a contraction of -6.3% YoY (vs IDR8.9tn in FY22) and reflecting 21.3%/20.8% of MNCS/Consensus...

MNC Sekuritas

Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ) - Solidifying Indonesia's Future Path

Increasing infrastructure spending will help to drive growth in demand for bulk cement, especially from the new capital, with Semen Indonesia being...

Angus Mackintosh

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