Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Tower Bersama Infrastructure / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya</a> has decided to pare back the velocity of the expansion of Lawson convenience stores as it consolidates its leading position and maximises efficiencies.</li>
<li>4Q2023 saw slower growth in November but December should be stronger, whilst its store expansion for 2023 reached 1,700 new stores, with plans for around 1,300 new stores in 2024.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya</a> remains the best way to play the minimarket space in Indonesia. 4Q 2023 numbers should provide a positive catalyst given it is the seasonally high quarter. </li>
</ul>



Sumber Alfaria Trijaya has decided to pare back the velocity of the expansion of Lawson convenience stores as it consolidates its leading position and maximises efficiencies.
4Q2023 saw slower growth in November but December should be stronger, whilst its store expansion for 2023 reached 1,700 new stores, with plans for around 1,300 new stores in 2024.

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya remains the best way to play the minimarket space in Indonesia. 4Q 2023 numbers should provide a positive catalyst given it is the seasonally high quarter. 


Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) - Rationalising the Lawson Buildout

<ul>
<li>A company visit with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya</a> revealed confidence in the outlook with its more aggressive store expansion on track, as it nearly draws level with Indomaret.</li>
<li>The company remains focused on expanding its Lawson convenience store outlets plus larger size Midi outlets. Its membership scheme is growing fast with 10m shopping once a week. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ)</a> remains a core retail holding, with its premium valuation justified by its strong growth prospects, with estimated 2-year Forward EPS growth of +25% and +17%. </li>
</ul>


A company visit with Sumber Alfaria Trijaya revealed confidence in the outlook with its more aggressive store expansion on track, as it nearly draws level with Indomaret.
The company remains focused on expanding its Lawson convenience store outlets plus larger size Midi outlets. Its membership scheme is growing fast with 10m shopping once a week. 

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) remains a core retail holding, with its premium valuation justified by its strong growth prospects, with estimated 2-year Forward EPS growth of +25% and +17%. 


Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) - Ongoing Momentum Sustained

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ)</a> came through a slower 3Q2023 with much stronger growth than peers, with SSSG and rapid store expansion driving growth, and margins improving concurrently.</li>
<li>The company added more than 1,300 new stores for 9M2023 and looks set to add a record 1,800 by year-end, with new Alfamidi and Lawson stores driving growth.</li>
<li>AMRT will see an even stronger seasonally higher 4Q2023, with SSSG likely to pick up boosted by supplier rebates and news store contributions. FY2024 looks set to be equally strong.</li>
</ul>



Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) came through a slower 3Q2023 with much stronger growth than peers, with SSSG and rapid store expansion driving growth, and margins improving concurrently.
The company added more than 1,300 new stores for 9M2023 and looks set to add a record 1,800 by year-end, with new Alfamidi and Lawson stores driving growth.
AMRT will see an even stronger seasonally higher 4Q2023, with SSSG likely to pick up boosted by supplier rebates and news store contributions. FY2024 looks set to be equally strong.


Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) - Running Ahead of the Pack

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gudang-garam-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:722:1" rel="noopener">Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timah-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11174:1" rel="noopener">Timah Persero (TINS IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-comfeed-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8258:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ)</a> in the LQ45 Index next week.</li>
<li>There are some large changes to free float plus capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>There could be jumps in the stocks of the adds/deletes today, though there should be pre-positioning and a potential reversal later in the week.</li>
</ul>



Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ) and Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) will replace Timah Persero (TINS IJ) and Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ) in the LQ45 Index next week.
There are some large changes to free float plus capping changes for Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ). 
There could be jumps in the stocks of the adds/deletes today, though there should be pre-positioning and a potential reversal later in the week.


​​​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Two Changes in a Few Days

Indonesia

PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk is an Indonesian retail company engaged in the distribution of consumer products, operating minimarket networks and franchise services primarily under the Alfamart brand. It offers a wide range of food and non-food products, cosmetics, and provides digital services such as bill payments and e-vouchers. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Tangerang, Indonesia.

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Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ)

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

There could be 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have performed well while the potential deletes are trading...

Brian Freitas