Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-telkom-indonesia-persero-tbk-class-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1051:1" rel="noopener">Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ)</a> share price is still down 23% YTD despite several positive catalysts.</li>
<li>Monetization of the InfraNexia could result in margin expansion and special dividend declaration. </li>
<li>The management has done it before with Mitratel, monetized through USD 1.3 billion IPO. </li>
</ul>



Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ) share price is still down 23% YTD despite several positive catalysts.
Monetization of the InfraNexia could result in margin expansion and special dividend declaration. 
The management has done it before with Mitratel, monetized through USD 1.3 billion IPO. 


Telkom (TLKM): Proven Spin-Off Track Record

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following a market consultation, Indonesia could see its weight slashed in a global index and that will lead to passive selling in May.</li>
<li>Depending on the approach taken to computing free float, outflows could be in the range of US$925m and US$2.2bn.</li>
<li>The change in free float methodology could also lead to a few stocks being deleted from the index due to low free float market cap.</li>
</ul>


Following a market consultation, Indonesia could see its weight slashed in a global index and that will lead to passive selling in May.
Depending on the approach taken to computing free float, outflows could be in the range of US$925m and US$2.2bn.
The change in free float methodology could also lead to a few stocks being deleted from the index due to low free float market cap.


Global Index: Indonesia Likely to See Huge Outflows in May

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Average weights have fallen to an all-time low of 0.93%, with fund participation at a 15-year low of 80.45% — yet the majority of active EM managers remain invested.</li>
<li>Selling has been concentrated in domestic banks, with Bank Central Asia seeing the largest outright closures, while ASEAN allocations as a whole have dropped to their lowest level on record.</li>
<li>With MSCI’s verdict on Indonesia’s EM status still pending, the country sits firmly in negative momentum territory, but for many funds, much of the pain may already be behind them.</li>
</ul>


Average weights have fallen to an all-time low of 0.93%, with fund participation at a 15-year low of 80.45% — yet the majority of active EM managers remain invested.
Selling has been concentrated in domestic banks, with Bank Central Asia seeing the largest outright closures, while ASEAN allocations as a whole have dropped to their lowest level on record.
With MSCI’s verdict on Indonesia’s EM status still pending, the country sits firmly in negative momentum territory, but for many funds, much of the pain may already be behind them.


ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

<ul>
<li>The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. </li>
<li>GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. </li>
<li>Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.</li>
</ul>


The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. 
GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. 
Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.


CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

<ul>
<li>Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. </li>
<li>Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.</li>
<li>Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. </li>
</ul>


Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. 
Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.
Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. 


Indonesia Strategy - Caught in a Perfect Updraft?

Indonesia

Telkom Indonesia is a multinational telecommunications conglomerate that provides information and communications technology, and telecommunications network services globally. The company offers a diverse range of services including mobile communications, consumer fixed broadband, corporate ICT solutions, digital infrastructure, and global wholesale connectivity. Telkom Indonesia's corporate headquarters are in Bandung, with operational headquarters in Jakarta, Indonesia, and the company traces its history back to 1856.

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Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ)

Telkom (TLKM): Proven Spin-Off Track Record

TLKM has done it before with Mitratel and now they want to repeat the same playbook with InfraNexia. Is it a risky move? Not really if they did...

Henry Soediarko

Global Index: Indonesia Likely to See Huge Outflows in May

This is going be a huge theme today for Indonesia. The price movements of a lot of stocks have raised issues in the past with global index...

Brian Freitas

Indonesia: Record Lows But Not Abandoned

Average weights have fallen to an all-time low of 0.93%, with fund participation at a 15-year low of 80.45% — yet the majority of active EM...

Steven Holden

CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new...

Angus Mackintosh

Indonesia Strategy - Caught in a Perfect Updraft?

Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top...

Angus Mackintosh

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