Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our focus on earnings delivery continues, this time turning to ASEAN. We screen stocks with consistent EPS estimate upgrades, strong EPS growth forecasts, net debt/equity below 1 and PEG&lt;1.3x.</li>
<li>In the six ASEAN markets, 10 stocks satisfy our criteria - four from Vietnam, two each from Indonesia and Thailand and one each from Singapore and Malaysia.</li>
<li>Nine of the ten stocks appreciated sharply over the past 3 and 6 months. Over the past 12 months 7 stocks appreciated and three declined.</li>
</ul>


Our focus on earnings delivery continues, this time turning to ASEAN. We screen stocks with consistent EPS estimate upgrades, strong EPS growth forecasts, net debt/equity below 1 and PEG&lt;1.3x.
In the six ASEAN markets, 10 stocks satisfy our criteria - four from Vietnam, two each from Indonesia and Thailand and one each from Singapore and Malaysia.
Nine of the ten stocks appreciated sharply over the past 3 and 6 months. Over the past 12 months 7 stocks appreciated and three declined.


Earnings Delivery, Reasonable Valuations, Healthy Balance Sheet - Ten Stocks in ASEAN

Bayon Financial

Graeme Cunningham

Independent Insight Provider

Bayon Financial provides industry and company analysis focusing on mid and small cap equity research coverage across a range of sectors including mining, financials and telecoms.

<ul>
<li>INCO's rally could slow as the industry outlook remains weak and its ongoing major operational transformation may not be fully derisked and priced in until well into 2026 </li>
<li>Q2/25 remained challenging with revenue inline but a major net income miss, as weak nickel offset rising volume and strong cost control, with margins and ROE near zero</li>
<li>While the 2025E P/B of 0.9x has priced in a large degree of industry distress, we still see risks of stagnation for the prices of both nickel and INCO</li>
</ul>


INCO's rally could slow as the industry outlook remains weak and its ongoing major operational transformation may not be fully derisked and priced in until well into 2026 
Q2/25 remained challenging with revenue inline but a major net income miss, as weak nickel offset rising volume and strong cost control, with margins and ROE near zero
While the 2025E P/B of 0.9x has priced in a large degree of industry distress, we still see risks of stagnation for the prices of both nickel and INCO


Vale Indonesia: Struggle Against Weak Nickel Continues

<ul>
<li>Vale Indonesia's Q1/25 net profit beat estimates only on non-core items, with a reversal to a gain from Q1/24 on the fair value recognition of a derivative asset </li>
<li>Core earnings declined yoy on an unexpected maintenance shutdown-driven decline in volume and nickel price drop which offset a decline in costs</li>
<li>Trading at a P/B of 0.5x and with peers also well below 1.0x, much of the industry's current distress has been priced in, but immediate catalysts are few </li>
</ul>


Vale Indonesia's Q1/25 net profit beat estimates only on non-core items, with a reversal to a gain from Q1/24 on the fair value recognition of a derivative asset 
Core earnings declined yoy on an unexpected maintenance shutdown-driven decline in volume and nickel price drop which offset a decline in costs
Trading at a P/B of 0.5x and with peers also well below 1.0x, much of the industry's current distress has been priced in, but immediate catalysts are few 


Vale Indonesia: Still Battling Nickel Price Decline in Q1/25

<ul>
<li>Vale Indonesia's Q4/24 results came in -28% below expectations driven mainly by a revenue decline, as core costs fell, and other expenses and net financing income rose</li>
<li>The revenue drop was from by a -7.1% decline in volume and -11.5% drop in the nickel matte price, while fuel efficiency improved and fuel costs dropped overall</li>
<li>The P/B continued to slide in Q4/24 to 0.82, along with an ROE down to 1.0%, but even given the inexpensive multiple, weak nickel could weigh on the stock</li>
</ul>


Vale Indonesia's Q4/24 results came in -28% below expectations driven mainly by a revenue decline, as core costs fell, and other expenses and net financing income rose
The revenue drop was from by a -7.1% decline in volume and -11.5% drop in the nickel matte price, while fuel efficiency improved and fuel costs dropped overall
The P/B continued to slide in Q4/24 to 0.82, along with an ROE down to 1.0%, but even given the inexpensive multiple, weak nickel could weigh on the stock


Vale Indonesia: Q4/24 Earnings Drop on Volume, Nickel Price Decline

<ul>
<li>Vale Indonesia's Q3/24 results came in below expectations with net income -8.1% below consensus, although there was a slight 0.4% beat for revenue </li>
<li>Revenue dropped -17.6% yoy, hit by a -20.1% decline in the nickel matte price as volume rose 3.1%, which offset a -0.6% decline in cost of revenue </li>
<li>We expect short-term pressure on the shares, with ROE and P/B near two decade lows, as nickel could remain weak and new projects could be a H2/25 driver </li>
</ul>


Vale Indonesia's Q3/24 results came in below expectations with net income -8.1% below consensus, although there was a slight 0.4% beat for revenue 
Revenue dropped -17.6% yoy, hit by a -20.1% decline in the nickel matte price as volume rose 3.1%, which offset a -0.6% decline in cost of revenue 
We expect short-term pressure on the shares, with ROE and P/B near two decade lows, as nickel could remain weak and new projects could be a H2/25 driver 


Vale Indonesia - Q3/24 Nickel Price Slide Offsets Cost Decline

Indonesia

PT Vale Indonesia Tbk is Indonesia's largest integrated nickel producer, engaged in the exploration, mining, processing, and production of nickel in matte from lateritic ores. The company also operates hydroelectric power generating plants that supply electricity for its smelting and nickel ore processing facilities. It is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, and was founded on July 25, 1968.

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Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ)

Earnings Delivery, Reasonable Valuations, Healthy Balance Sheet - Ten Stocks in ASEAN

We identify stocks in ASEAN with consistent EPS est upgrades, strong growth forecasts, low debt/equity, and PEG<1.3x. Ten stocks meet the...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Vale Indonesia: Struggle Against Weak Nickel Continues

INCO's rally could stall on stagnating nickel, which drove down Q2/25 ROE and margins to near zero, and the while the P/B is low, a full derisking,...

Graeme Cunningham

Vale Indonesia: Still Battling Nickel Price Decline in Q1/25

Vale Indonesia's Q1/25 net income beat on non-core items but core operations declined on an unexpected maintenance-driven volume decline and lower...

Graeme Cunningham

Vale Indonesia: Q4/24 Earnings Drop on Volume, Nickel Price Decline

Vale Indonesia's Q4/24 missed expectations mainly on a revenue drop, driven by a volume and price decline, as core costs edged down, and while...

Graeme Cunningham

Vale Indonesia - Q3/24 Nickel Price Slide Offsets Cost Decline

Vale Indonesia's Q3/24 came in below expectations, as a nickel decline drove down revenue, offsetting a cost improvement, with ROE and P/B for 2024...

Graeme Cunningham

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Earnings Delivery, Reasonable Valuations, Healthy Balance Sheet - Ten Stocks in ASEAN

​We identify stocks in ASEAN with consistent EPS est upgrades, strong growth forecasts, low debt/equity, and PEG<1.3x. Ten stocks meet the...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Vale Indonesia: Struggle Against Weak Nickel Continues

INCO's rally could stall on stagnating nickel, which drove down Q2/25 ROE and margins to near zero, and the while the P/B is low, a full derisking,...

Graeme Cunningham

Vale Indonesia: Still Battling Nickel Price Decline in Q1/25

Vale Indonesia's Q1/25 net income beat on non-core items but core operations declined on an unexpected maintenance-driven volume decline and lower...

Graeme Cunningham

Vale Indonesia: Q4/24 Earnings Drop on Volume, Nickel Price Decline

Vale Indonesia's Q4/24 missed expectations mainly on a revenue drop, driven by a volume and price decline, as core costs edged down, and while...

Graeme Cunningham

Vale Indonesia - Q3/24 Nickel Price Slide Offsets Cost Decline

Vale Indonesia's Q3/24 came in below expectations, as a nickel decline drove down revenue, offsetting a cost improvement, with ROE and P/B for 2024...

Graeme Cunningham

We identify stocks in ASEAN with consistent EPS est upgrades, strong growth forecasts, low debt/equity, and PEG<1.3x. Ten stocks meet the...