Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

PTT Exploration & Production / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>4Q25 net profit was in line with expectations, supported by positive one-off items, while core profit declined YoY as expected due to lower unit margins.</li><li>Geopolitical risk—concerns over potential supply disruptions if the US strikes Iran—has provided ST support to oil prices and PTTEP (correlation ~80%).</li><li>Our base case assumes a downtrend in oil prices amid oversupply, consistent with 2026–28E core profit growth of 4.1% CAGR, lagging the sector due to weaker unit margins.</li></ul>

4Q25 net profit was in line with expectations, supported by positive one-off items, while core profit declined YoY as expected due to lower unit margins.Geopolitical risk—concerns over potential supply disruptions if the US strikes Iran—has provided ST support to oil prices and PTTEP (correlation ~80%).Our base case assumes a downtrend in oil prices amid oversupply, consistent with 2026–28E core profit growth of 4.1% CAGR, lagging the sector due to weaker unit margins.

PTT Exploration and Production Plc. (PTTEP): One-Offs Lift 4Q25 NP As Expected; Core Profit Down YoY

Technical Analysis

PTT Exploration & Production / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SET Index came under pressure from several negative factors, including escalating tensions in the Middle East, rising US bond yields, and a sell-off in semiconductor stocks across Asian markets.</li>
<li>We therefore expect the index to remain above 1,600 points for now.</li>
<li>We continue to recommend buying on weakness, as the index has yet to show a clear bearish signal and still has the potential to rebound.</li>
</ul>


The SET Index came under pressure from several negative factors, including escalating tensions in the Middle East, rising US bond yields, and a sell-off in semiconductor stocks across Asian markets.
We therefore expect the index to remain above 1,600 points for now.
We continue to recommend buying on weakness, as the index has yet to show a clear bearish signal and still has the potential to rebound.


Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. August 25, 2026

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>SET expected to extend gains, supported by fund inflows ahead of Thailand Focus</li>
<li>The US may further expand buybacks of medium- to long-term Treasuries.</li>
<li>Based on five-year statistics (2021-25), the SET delivered an average return of +0.7% during Thailand Focus week (August 26-28, 2026), with an 80% probability of gains.</li>
</ul>


SET expected to extend gains, supported by fund inflows ahead of Thailand Focus
The US may further expand buybacks of medium- to long-term Treasuries.
Based on five-year statistics (2021-25), the SET delivered an average return of +0.7% during Thailand Focus week (August 26-28, 2026), with an 80% probability of gains.


Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 24, 2026

<ul><li>We expect 4Q25E NP of Bt17.0bn, supported by positive oneoff items (results on February 9, 2026).</li><li>The share price trades at a discount to our 12M FWD FV of Bt115.50, based on the earnings yield method (required return of 12.6% derived from estimated ERP using macro and stock-specific factors).</li><li>We see no positive catalysts for the share price over the next 12 months, as oil prices trend lower amid oversupply (we estimate each USD1 decline reduces profit by around 2%), the baht remains strong, and DPS and ROE should trend down in line with earnings, beginning in 2025E.</li></ul>

We expect 4Q25E NP of Bt17.0bn, supported by positive oneoff items (results on February 9, 2026).The share price trades at a discount to our 12M FWD FV of Bt115.50, based on the earnings yield method (required return of 12.6% derived from estimated ERP using macro and stock-specific factors).We see no positive catalysts for the share price over the next 12 months, as oil prices trend lower amid oversupply (we estimate each USD1 decline reduces profit by around 2%), the baht remains strong, and DPS and ROE should trend down in line with earnings, beginning in 2025E.

PTT Exploration and Production Plc. (PTTEP): 4Q25E NP Aided by One-Offs...

<ul><li>We view yesterday's decline as short-term profit taking, as selling pressure was relatively limited.</li><li>The absence of a sharp decline suggests that the uptrend remains intact.</li><li>We recommend buying on dips, as the index continues to swing rapidly in both directions amid fast rotation among blue-chip stocks.</li></ul>

We view yesterday's decline as short-term profit taking, as selling pressure was relatively limited.The absence of a sharp decline suggests that the uptrend remains intact.We recommend buying on dips, as the index continues to swing rapidly in both directions amid fast rotation among blue-chip stocks.

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. August 19, 2026

Thailand

PTT Exploration & Production is a national petroleum exploration and production company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas both domestically and internationally. The company also invests in renewable energy and related activities, aiming for sustainable growth and a low-carbon future. It is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded on June 20, 1985.

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PTT Exploration & Production (PTTEP TB)

PTT Exploration and Production Plc. (PTTEP): One-Offs Lift 4Q25 NP As Expected; Core Profit Down YoY

4Q25 net profit was in line with expectations, supported by positive one-off items, while core profit declined YoY as expected due to lower unit...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. August 25, 2026

The SET Index came under pressure from several negative factors, including escalating tensions in the Middle East, rising US bond yields, and a...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 24, 2026

SET expected to extend gains, supported by fund inflows ahead of Thailand Focus The US may further expand buybacks of medium- to long-term...

Krungthai XSpring

PTT Exploration and Production Plc. (PTTEP): 4Q25E NP Aided by One-Offs...

The share price trades at a discount to our 12M FWD FV of Bt115.50, based on the earnings yield method (required return of 12.6% derived from...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. August 19, 2026

We view yesterday's decline as short-term profit taking, as selling pressure was relatively limited. The absence of a sharp decline suggests that...

Krungthai XSpring

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