Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Nov 29th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Bumrungrad Hospital, Energy Absolute, Delta Electronics, Banpu, SCC, PTT Global Chemical.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Nov 29th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.2bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Bumrungrad Hospital, Energy Absolute, Delta Electronics, Banpu, SCC, PTT Global Chemical.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Nov 29th): Bumrungrad, Energy Absolute, Delta Electronics, Banpu

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Nov 15th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Delta Electronics, Bumrungrad Hospital, CP ALL, SCC.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Nov 15th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Delta Electronics, Bumrungrad Hospital, CP ALL, SCC.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Nov 15th): Delta Electronics, Bumrungrad Hospital, CP ALL, SCC

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

PTT Oil & Retail Business  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The 3Q24 earnings turned to a net loss, pressured by oil stock losses, forex losses, and seasonal factors.</li><li>We maintain our 2024-26E earnings forecasts, expecting a QoQ recovery in 4Q24E and strong core profit growth at a 28% CAGR in 2025- 26E, driven by a low base effect in 2024E and divestment of unprofitable businesses (Texas Chicken, Kouen).</li><li>The stock price has largely priced in the negative factors and implies upside gain of approximately 13% from the fair value (FV) of Bt17.0.</li></ul>

The 3Q24 earnings turned to a net loss, pressured by oil stock losses, forex losses, and seasonal factors.We maintain our 2024-26E earnings forecasts, expecting a QoQ recovery in 4Q24E and strong core profit growth at a 28% CAGR in 2025- 26E, driven by a low base effect in 2024E and divestment of unprofitable businesses (Texas Chicken, Kouen).The stock price has largely priced in the negative factors and implies upside gain of approximately 13% from the fair value (FV) of Bt17.0.

Ptt Oil and Retail Business - Larger-Than-Expected Net Loss Due to Seasonal and Specific Factors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We have revised down our Dubai crude oil price assumptions for 2024-26E to USD80, USD75, and USD73/bbl, respectively.</li><li>The downward trend in oil prices due to global risks (e.g., increased supply and slower demand amid the unrest in the Middle East) is expected to negatively impact PTTEP, as approximately 30% of its sales volume is exposed to crude oil prices, and the stock shows a high correlation of around 0.8 with crude oil prices.</li><li>For the refinery sector, we anticipate short-term negative effects, likely due to inventory losses in 3Q24E from the sharp decline in crude oil prices, against a neutral impact in the medium term given declining crude oil costs and crude premiums. </li></ul>

We have revised down our Dubai crude oil price assumptions for 2024-26E to USD80, USD75, and USD73/bbl, respectively.The downward trend in oil prices due to global risks (e.g., increased supply and slower demand amid the unrest in the Middle East) is expected to negatively impact PTTEP, as approximately 30% of its sales volume is exposed to crude oil prices, and the stock shows a high correlation of around 0.8 with crude oil prices.For the refinery sector, we anticipate short-term negative effects, likely due to inventory losses in 3Q24E from the sharp decline in crude oil prices, against a neutral impact in the medium term given declining crude oil costs and crude premiums. 

Industry Update: Energy (Oil) - SEPTEMBER 30, 2024

<ul>
<li>We expect the energy sector to deliver a mixed performance in 3Q24E.</li>
<li>We maintain a Neutral investment rating on the sector, reflecting weak industry indicators in 2H24E (e.g., oil prices, refining margins, marketing margins).</li>
<li>In addition, we downgrade our recommendation for refinery stocks (BCP and TOP) to Outperform (from Buy) due to tactical factors, as their share prices have risen in line with improving refining margins. </li>
</ul>


We expect the energy sector to deliver a mixed performance in 3Q24E.
We maintain a Neutral investment rating on the sector, reflecting weak industry indicators in 2H24E (e.g., oil prices, refining margins, marketing margins).
In addition, we downgrade our recommendation for refinery stocks (BCP and TOP) to Outperform (from Buy) due to tactical factors, as their share prices have risen in line with improving refining margins. 


Industry Update - Energy (Upstream-Downstream)

Thailand

PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited distributes petroleum products. The Company offers oil, gas, fuels, LPG, lubricants, and other related items. PTT Oil and Retail Business serves customers in Thailand.

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PTT Oil & Retail Business (OR TB)

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Nov 29th): Bumrungrad, Energy Absolute, Delta Electronics, Banpu

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Bumrungrad Hospital, Energy Absolute, Delta...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Nov 15th): Delta Electronics, Bumrungrad Hospital, CP ALL, SCC

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Delta Electronics, Bumrungrad Hospital, CP ALL, SCC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Ptt Oil and Retail Business - Larger-Than-Expected Net Loss Due to Seasonal and Specific Factors

We maintain our 2024-26E earnings forecasts, expecting a QoQ recovery in 4Q24E and strong core profit growth at a 28% CAGR in 2025- 26E, driven by...

Krungthai XSpring

Industry Update: Energy (Oil) - SEPTEMBER 30, 2024

The downward trend in oil prices due to global risks (e.g., increased supply and slower demand amid the unrest in the Middle East) is expected to...

Krungthai XSpring

Industry Update - Energy (Upstream-Downstream)

We maintain a Neutral investment rating on the sector, reflecting weak industry indicators in 2H24E (e.g., oil prices, refining margins, marketing...

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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