Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>US Group II base oils export prices weaken versus FOB Asia Group II prices in Q3 2025.</li><li>Prices weaken at time of year when FOB Asia Group II prices typically fall versus US prices.</li><li>Asia prices typically fall to help to avoid or to clear surplus volumes at time of year when regional demand faces seasonal slowdown.</li></ul>

US Group II base oils export prices weaken versus FOB Asia Group II prices in Q3 2025.Prices weaken at time of year when FOB Asia Group II prices typically fall versus US prices.Asia prices typically fall to help to avoid or to clear surplus volumes at time of year when regional demand faces seasonal slowdown.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 18 August

<ul><li>Asia’s heavy-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil holds firm, especially for Group I base oils.</li><li>Group II heavy-grade margins stay high despite lower outright prices.</li><li>High margins point to supply-demand fundamentals that are sufficiently strong to incentivize refiners to maintain high output.</li></ul>

Asia’s heavy-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil holds firm, especially for Group I base oils.Group II heavy-grade margins stay high despite lower outright prices.High margins point to supply-demand fundamentals that are sufficiently strong to incentivize refiners to maintain high output.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 18 August

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils demand could get support from pick-up in requirements for replenishment volumes to meet seasonal rise in consumption during final weeks of Q3.</li><li>Simultaneous rise in requirements throughout Asia-Pacific region could magnify pick-up in demand and competition for supplies.</li><li>Blenders’ relatively lower stocks would add to need for additional supplies.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils demand could get support from pick-up in requirements for replenishment volumes to meet seasonal rise in consumption during final weeks of Q3.Simultaneous rise in requirements throughout Asia-Pacific region could magnify pick-up in demand and competition for supplies.Blenders’ relatively lower stocks would add to need for additional supplies.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 18 August

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to weaken today, with the support at 1,253/1,250 points (10-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,270/1,280 points.</li><li>Overall, the higher-than-expected PPI reduces the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 bps at the September 17 meeting, leading to a rebound in bond yields and a stronger US Dollar Index, while the US stock market was unchanged.</li><li>Overall results came in 8.6% above the consensus expectations, growing +26.6% QoQ and +22% YoY.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to weaken today, with the support at 1,253/1,250 points (10-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,270/1,280 points.Overall, the higher-than-expected PPI reduces the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 bps at the September 17 meeting, leading to a rebound in bond yields and a stronger US Dollar Index, while the US stock market was unchanged.Overall results came in 8.6% above the consensus expectations, growing +26.6% QoQ and +22% YoY.

US PPI Jumps More Than Expected, Undermining Hopes for Fed Rate Cuts

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to be volatile today (rising with intermittent pullbacks), with the resistance at 1,280/1,292 points (EMA 75-week) and the support at 1,270/1,266 points.</li><li>Foreign factors are slightly positive, as US financial markets remain supported by expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at its September meeting (the US Treasury expects a cut of up to 50 bps).</li><li>Domestic factors are also slightly positive, following the MPC's rate cut yesterday to support vulnerable groups, although this is negative for bank stocks after BBL led by cutting lending rates by 25 bps yesterday, which is expected to weigh on NIMs.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to be volatile today (rising with intermittent pullbacks), with the resistance at 1,280/1,292 points (EMA 75-week) and the support at 1,270/1,266 points.Foreign factors are slightly positive, as US financial markets remain supported by expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at its September meeting (the US Treasury expects a cut of up to 50 bps).Domestic factors are also slightly positive, following the MPC's rate cut yesterday to support vulnerable groups, although this is negative for bank stocks after BBL led by cutting lending rates by 25 bps yesterday, which is expected to weigh on NIMs.

MPC Rate Cut Is Positive for Economy But Negative for Banking Sector

Thailand

PTT is a Thai state-owned integrated petroleum and natural gas company involved in exploration, production, refining, and marketing of oil and gas, petrochemicals, and electricity generation. It operates extensive submarine gas pipelines and a network of LPG terminals. Headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, the company was founded in 1978.

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PTT (PTT TB)

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 18 August

US Group II base oils export prices weaken versus FOB Asia Group II prices in Q3 2025. Prices weaken at time of year when FOB Asia Group II prices...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 18 August

Asia’s heavy-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil holds firm, especially for Group I base oils. Group II heavy-grade margins stay...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 18 August

Asia’s base oils demand could get support from pick-up in requirements for replenishment volumes to meet seasonal rise in consumption during final...

Base Oil News

US PPI Jumps More Than Expected, Undermining Hopes for Fed Rate Cuts

The SET Index is expected to weaken today, with the support at 1,253/1,250 points (10-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,270/1,280 points. Overall,...

Krungthai XSpring

MPC Rate Cut Is Positive for Economy But Negative for Banking Sector

The SET Index is expected to be volatile today (rising with intermittent pullbacks), with the resistance at 1,280/1,292 points (EMA 75-week) and...

Krungthai XSpring

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