Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Of the six Malaysian banks screened, we keep quality play Maybank on the buy list and switch our prior buy RHB for CIMB</li>
<li>CIMB is our value pick for its undemanding PE and PBV whilst second from top in post-provision profitability; its credit quality is improving, a positive trend we expect will continue</li>
<li>We maintain quality pick Maybank as a buy for its relatively undemanding valuations, and strong balance sheet credentials in terms of credit quality and capital adequacy</li>
</ul>


Of the six Malaysian banks screened, we keep quality play Maybank on the buy list and switch our prior buy RHB for CIMB
CIMB is our value pick for its undemanding PE and PBV whilst second from top in post-provision profitability; its credit quality is improving, a positive trend we expect will continue
We maintain quality pick Maybank as a buy for its relatively undemanding valuations, and strong balance sheet credentials in terms of credit quality and capital adequacy


Malaysian Banks Screener; Value Pick CIMB Has Momentum, Maybank Is the Quality Pick

<ul>
<li>Of the six Malaysian banks screened, we keep RHB Bank and CIMB on the buy list; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/public-bank-berhad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:583:1" rel="noopener">PB Bank</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malayan-banking-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:600:1" rel="noopener">Maybank</a> are quality but seem fully valued by comparison</li>
<li>RHB Bank has, in the December quarter, maintained its improved its pre-provision profitability versus its peers; RHB’s high CET1 ratio understates its ROE, and it is attractive on PE multiples</li>
<li>CIMB once again improved its positive post-provision returns which should support CIMB’s share price given its modest valuations and attractive PEG versus peers; its high NPL ratio is fully provisioned</li>
</ul>


Of the six Malaysian banks screened, we keep RHB Bank and CIMB on the buy list; PB Bank and Maybank are quality but seem fully valued by comparison
RHB Bank has, in the December quarter, maintained its improved its pre-provision profitability versus its peers; RHB’s high CET1 ratio understates its ROE, and it is attractive on PE multiples
CIMB once again improved its positive post-provision returns which should support CIMB’s share price given its modest valuations and attractive PEG versus peers; its high NPL ratio is fully provisioned


Malaysian Banks December 2022 Results Screener; Sticking with Buys on CIMB and RHB

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>Far too much volatility in credit costs, making clarity on earnings difficult</li>
<li>All core fee income items down sharply in quarter, credit cost delta main driver</li>
<li>Despite good lending growth, there is little to show for it in ROA and core income</li>
</ul>


Far too much volatility in credit costs, making clarity on earnings difficult
All core fee income items down sharply in quarter, credit cost delta main driver
Despite good lending growth, there is little to show for it in ROA and core income


<ul>
<li>The six Malaysian banks screen favourably on balance sheet and returns metrics to June 2022; we add CIMB to the buy list, keep RHB and we remove Maybank</li>
<li>We add CIMB with its positive post-provision return trends and further potential which combine constructively with CIMB’s undemanding valuations versus the peer group; its high NPL ratio is fully provisioned</li>
<li>We stick with RHB, with its attractive post-provision profitability and positive cost of risk trends, whilst also trading on attractive multiples versus peers and on a relatively low PEG</li>
</ul>


The six Malaysian banks screen favourably on balance sheet and returns metrics to June 2022; we add CIMB to the buy list, keep RHB and we remove Maybank
We add CIMB with its positive post-provision return trends and further potential which combine constructively with CIMB’s undemanding valuations versus the peer group; its high NPL ratio is fully provisioned
We stick with RHB, with its attractive post-provision profitability and positive cost of risk trends, whilst also trading on attractive multiples versus peers and on a relatively low PEG


Malaysian Banks June 2022 Screener; CIMB Is Our New Value Pick

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<ul>
<li>Maybank reported 4Q21 NPAT of MYR 2.1 bn, improving MYR 372 mn (22.1%) linked quarter, reflecting revenue improvement across the board and a provision cut; </li>
<li>Net new NPLs aggregate MYR 2.3 bn, intimates an 83.4% QOQ increase in problem loans on an annualized basis; and  </li>
<li>Maybank was less than aggressive provisioning, and now an MYR 8.0 bn reserve shortfall exists today in its loan loss reserve or three quarters of NPAT. </li>
</ul>


Maybank reported 4Q21 NPAT of MYR 2.1 bn, improving MYR 372 mn (22.1%) linked quarter, reflecting revenue improvement across the board and a provision cut; 
Net new NPLs aggregate MYR 2.3 bn, intimates an 83.4% QOQ increase in problem loans on an annualized basis; and  
Maybank was less than aggressive provisioning, and now an MYR 8.0 bn reserve shortfall exists today in its loan loss reserve or three quarters of NPAT. 


Malayan Banking – Heightened Credit Risk

Malaysia

Public Bank Berhad provides a range of banking and financial services which include leasing and factoring, stock and futures broking, financing for the purchase of licensed public vehicles, and other financial services. The Group's overseas operations include branches in Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

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Public Bank (PBK MK)

Malaysian Banks Screener; Value Pick CIMB Has Momentum, Maybank Is the Quality Pick

Maybank remains the quality buy, with its strong balance sheet; CIMB replaces RHB Bank as the new value pick given CIMB's improving credit quality...

Victor Galliano

Malaysian Banks December 2022 Results Screener; Sticking with Buys on CIMB and RHB

We keep RHB Bank and CIMB on the buy list for attractive PE multiples and PBV ratios as well as their improving return trends; PB Bank and Maybank...

Victor Galliano

RHB - Volatility

RHB's credit costs are characterized by a high degree of volatility, which is not something that we view as positive. Reversals hardly repeat...

Daniel Tabbush

Malaysian Banks June 2022 Screener; CIMB Is Our New Value Pick

We add CIMB to the buy list, keep RHB and we remove Maybank; CIMB has positive post-provision return trends and undemanding valuations; RHB has...

Victor Galliano

Malayan Banking – Heightened Credit Risk

MAYBANK: Maybank reported QOQ 4Q21 NPAT increase of 22.1%, reflecting revenue improvement and a provision cut. NPLs accelerated while reserves...

Thomas J. Monaco

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Malaysian Banks Screener; Value Pick CIMB Has Momentum, Maybank Is the Quality Pick

​Maybank remains the quality buy, with its strong balance sheet; CIMB replaces RHB Bank as the new value pick given CIMB's improving credit quality...

Victor Galliano

Malaysian Banks December 2022 Results Screener; Sticking with Buys on CIMB and RHB

We keep RHB Bank and CIMB on the buy list for attractive PE multiples and PBV ratios as well as their improving return trends; PB Bank and Maybank...

Victor Galliano

RHB - Volatility

RHB's credit costs are characterized by a high degree of volatility, which is not something that we view as positive. Reversals hardly repeat...

Daniel Tabbush

Malaysian Banks June 2022 Screener; CIMB Is Our New Value Pick

We add CIMB to the buy list, keep RHB and we remove Maybank; CIMB has positive post-provision return trends and undemanding valuations; RHB has...

Victor Galliano

Malayan Banking – Heightened Credit Risk

MAYBANK: Maybank reported QOQ 4Q21 NPAT increase of 22.1%, reflecting revenue improvement and a provision cut. NPLs accelerated while reserves...

Thomas J. Monaco

Maybank remains the quality buy, with its strong balance sheet; CIMB replaces RHB Bank as the new value pick given CIMB's improving credit quality...