Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI EAFE ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe that a bearish intermediate-term outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).</li>
<li>We would turn bullish only on reversals of those downtrends. With that said, a bear market rally has officially begun, something that we have discussed since our Sept.29 Int'l Compass</li>
<li>We expect to see rallies to their respective YTD downtrends (ACWX, EFA, etc.). We highlight buys that are likely to outperform on this bear market rally.</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe that a bearish intermediate-term outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
We would turn bullish only on reversals of those downtrends. With that said, a bear market rally has officially begun, something that we have discussed since our Sept.29 Int'l Compass
We expect to see rallies to their respective YTD downtrends (ACWX, EFA, etc.). We highlight buys that are likely to outperform on this bear market rally.


Bear Market Rally in Progress as DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Yr Yields Fall; Buy Ideas Within Leaders

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Yesterday 14 February, Dentsu announced bte profits, and guidance for 2022 which appears in-line to slightly strong in terms of revenue, slightly weak/conservative in terms of IFRS/GAAP OP.</li>
<li>The company also announced what appears to be a BIG buyback. </li>
<li>Looks are deceiving, but somehow not, but there are catches in both directions. If you have a flow axe, it is worth knowing the flow details.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday 14 February, Dentsu announced bte profits, and guidance for 2022 which appears in-line to slightly strong in terms of revenue, slightly weak/conservative in terms of IFRS/GAAP OP.
The company also announced what appears to be a BIG buyback. 
Looks are deceiving, but somehow not, but there are catches in both directions. If you have a flow axe, it is worth knowing the flow details.


Dentsu BIG Buyback - Both Larger and Smaller Than It Appears

Amareos

Federico Bagiotti, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Over the past few months, the M part of the US TMT sector has not been particularly brilliant, especially in comparison to the second T, and Omnicom Group, an advertising, marketing and media communication company, has been even more disappointing than the sector as a whole.In light of the Q4 revenue miss, we consider the outlook for Omnicom’s stock price based on the recent evolution in our crowd-sourced sentiment indicators. They suggest that the CEO’s comment about “better days ahead” in…

Over the past few months, the M part of the US TMT sector has not been particularly brilliant, especially in comparison to the second T, and Omnicom Group, an advertising, marketing and media communication company, has been even more disappointing than the sector as a whole.In light of the Q4 revenue miss, we consider the outlook for Omnicom’s stock price based on the recent evolution in our crowd-sourced sentiment indicators. They suggest that the CEO’s comment about “better days ahead” in…

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>I’ve been underweight consumer staples on valuation and business model disruption risks since 2015 and the sector has de-rated significantly versus the wider market and consumer discretionary.</li>
<li>I’ve also highlighted the disintermediation shock facing the advertising industry – heavy brand advertising to guarantee prime supermarket shelf space is becoming a defunct business model.</li>
<li>Recent results from FMCG giants like Nestle and the advertising sector have disappointed, with tighter client spending…</li>
</ul>


I’ve been underweight consumer staples on valuation and business model disruption risks since 2015 and the sector has de-rated significantly versus the wider market and consumer discretionary.
I’ve also highlighted the disintermediation shock facing the advertising industry – heavy brand advertising to guarantee prime supermarket shelf space is becoming a defunct business model.
Recent results from FMCG giants like Nestle and the advertising sector have disappointed, with tighter client spending…


With ‘Brand Building’ Ad Era Over, Can Food Inflation Rescue FMCG Margins?

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

One of the really extraordinary features of the discussion over the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8715" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8715:1">Asatsu DK (9747 JP)</a> bid is the lack of discussion about a counter bid by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22213" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22213:1">WPP (WPP LN)</a>, arguably the most acquisitive firm the creative industry has ever seen. Presumably there are terms in the original agreement that prevent such a bid, but with Asatsu terminating the agreement, it isn't easy to see how the terms can be enforced (assuming that Asatsu's move does prove to be legal).The only article that I have seen that even…

One of the really extraordinary features of the discussion over the Asatsu DK (9747 JP) bid is the lack of discussion about a counter bid by WPP (WPP LN), arguably the most acquisitive firm the creative industry has ever seen. Presumably there are terms in the original agreement that prevent such a bid, but with Asatsu terminating the agreement, it isn't easy to see how the terms can be enforced (assuming that Asatsu's move does prove to be legal).The only article that I have seen that even…

Asatsu (9747) - Are Chances of a Counter Bid Being Underplayed?

France

Publicis Groupe SA offers advertising services.  The Company develops advertising campaigns and sells advertising on billboards and urban furniture, in newspapers and magazines, on radio, and in movie theaters.  Publicis offers direct marketing, customer relationship marketing, sales promotion, public relations and human resources services, and operates retail drugstores.

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Publicis Groupe Sa (PUB FP)

Bear Market Rally in Progress as DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Yr Yields Fall; Buy Ideas Within Leaders

Bear Market Rally in Progress as $DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Year Yields Decline. Italy FTSE MIB with a bullish YTD downtrend reversal, Switzerland...

Vermilion Research

Dentsu BIG Buyback - Both Larger and Smaller Than It Appears

Dentsu (4324) announced earnings and a large buyback. That buyback is larger than it appears, but actually smaller, but then larger again, but it...

Travis Lundy

Omnicom Group: Better Days Ahead?

Over the past few months, the M part of the US TMT sector has not been particularly brilliant, especially in comparison to the second T, and...

Amareos

With ‘Brand Building’ Ad Era Over, Can Food Inflation Rescue FMCG Margins?

I’ve been underweight consumer staples on valuation and business model disruption risks since 2015 and the sector has de-rated significantly...

Sean Maher

Asatsu (9747) - Are Chances of a Counter Bid Being Underplayed?

One of the really extraordinary features of the discussion over the Asatsu DK (9747 JP) bid is the lack of discussion about a counter bid by WPP...

Pelham Smithers Associates

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