Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August. Only 4 trading days to go.</li>
<li>We see 7 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 1 new addition to LargeCap, 12 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and 3 new additions to MidCap.</li>
<li>The upward migrations have underperformed the downward migrations over the last month as a few stocks have sold off hard. Some despite being included in global indices.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August. Only 4 trading days to go.
We see 7 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 1 new addition to LargeCap, 12 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and 3 new additions to MidCap.
The upward migrations have underperformed the downward migrations over the last month as a few stocks have sold off hard. Some despite being included in global indices.


KOSPI Size Indices: Momentum Stalls; (Some) Upward Migrations Sell-Off

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.</li>
<li>We see 8 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 1 new addition to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and 3 new additions to MidCap.</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that are expected to have passive flows from global and local index trackers over the next few months and that will add to the impact.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.
We see 8 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 1 new addition to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and 3 new additions to MidCap.
There are a few stocks that are expected to have passive flows from global and local index trackers over the next few months and that will add to the impact.


KOSPI Size Indices: Outperformance Slows on Momentum Stalls

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices will run from 1 June to 31 August.</li>
<li>We see 6 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 1 new addition to LargeCap, 6 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and 3 new additions to MidCap.</li>
<li>Stocks migrating upward have outperformed stocks migrating lower. But there are still stocks trading at a Price to Book of less than 1.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices will run from 1 June to 31 August.
We see 6 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 1 new addition to LargeCap, 6 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and 3 new additions to MidCap.
Stocks migrating upward have outperformed stocks migrating lower. But there are still stocks trading at a Price to Book of less than 1.


KOSPI Size Indices: Potential Migrations in September Are Moving

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices ends 28 February. The results will be announced early March and implemented at the close on 9 March.</li>
<li>We see 5 migrations between MidCap and LargeCap, 8 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap, 3 new adds to MidCap, and 11 migrations from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>Stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices ends 28 February. The results will be announced early March and implemented at the close on 9 March.
We see 5 migrations between MidCap and LargeCap, 8 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap, 3 new adds to MidCap, and 11 migrations from MidCap to SmallCap.
Stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.


KOSPI Size Indices - Potential Changes in March

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Hyundai Construction Equipment / Event-Driven

Hyundai Construction Equipment (267270 KS)

<h2>New benchmarks for domestic equity</h2><p>The National Pension Service has disclosed the following reform plan about the direct and consignment management benchmarks for domestic stocks.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/220/338/original/1.png?1627188167" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="220338"></figure></section><ul>
<li><strong>As for the direct management, the National Pension Plan plans to internally develop and use a new index called NPS-KR250 by adding additional 50 KOSPI stocks to the KOSPI 200 constituents.</strong></li>
<li><strong>Regarding the consignment management, the KOSPI + KOSDAQ 100 stocks are currently used as benchmarks. This benchmark is reorganized into KOSPI + KOSDAQ 150, with 50 KOSDAQ stocks added.</strong></li>
</ul><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 248.688px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Benchmark"}'>Benchmark</td>
<td style="width: 170.792px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Previous"}'>Previous</td>
<td style="width: 326.521px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"New"}'>New</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 248.688px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Internal (direct) management"}' data-sheets-formula="='KOSPI 200 Mirroring'!R[0]C[0]"><strong>Direct management</strong></td>
<td style="width: 170.792px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KOSPI 200"}'>KOSPI 200</td>
<td style="width: 326.521px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KOSPI 200 + KOSPI 50"}'><div><div><strong>NPS-KR250 = KOSPI 200 + additional 50 KOSPI stocks</strong></div></div></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 248.688px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Global Equity"}'><strong>Consignment management</strong></td>
<td style="width: 170.792px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KOSPI + KOSDAQ 100"}'>KOSPI + KOSDAQ 100</td>
<td style="width: 326.521px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KOSPI + KOSDAQ 150"}'><div><div><strong>KOSPI + KOSDAQ 100 + additional 50 KOSDAQ stocks</strong></div></div></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="3" rowspan="1" style="width: 746px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: NPS"}'>Source: NPS</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><h2>NPS size in the local stock market</h2><p>As of the end of April 2021, the National Pension Service has ₩883.6T in assets under management, of which ₩178T is invested in domestic stocks. Considering that the market capitalization of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets is currently around ₩2,800T, the national pension account for 6% of the Korean stock market.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="150">
<col width="80">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" style="width: 364px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Asset allocation status"}'>Asset allocation status as of the end-April, 2021</td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 364px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Domestic Equity"}'><strong>Domestic Equity</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 382px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":178014.6}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B","3":1}'><strong>₩178.1T</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 364px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Global Equity"}'>Global Equity</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 382px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":222407.5}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B","3":1}'>₩222.4T</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 364px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Domestic fixed income"}'>Domestic fixed income</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 382px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":340524.2}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B","3":1}'>₩340.5T</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 364px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Global fixed income"}'>Global fixed income</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 382px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":48826.4}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B","3":1}'>₩48.8T</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 364px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Alternatives"}'>Alternatives</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 382px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":92768.2}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B","3":1}'>₩92.8T</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" style="width: 364px;">Source: NPS</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>The proportion of local equity is 20.17%, down slightly from the end of last year, but still far exceeding the target of 16.80% this year.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/220/339/original/image_74411821721627188510268.png?1627188511" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="220339"></figure><h2>Direct vs. consignment for local equity</h2><p>As of the end of April this year, 52.03% of the funds invested in domestic stocks are direct management, then divided into active (19.43%) and passive (32.60%). The proportion of consignment management is 47.97%, and all of it is operated as active.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="200">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Direct vs. consignment for local equity"}'>Direct vs. consignment for local equity</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"2019 yearend"}'>2019 yearend</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Weight"}'>Weight</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"2020 yearend"}'>2020 yearend</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Weight"}'>Weight</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"April-end, 2021"}'><strong>April-end, 2021</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Weight"}'><strong>Weight</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Direct management"}'>Direct management</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":71.61210000000001}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩71.6T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">55.15%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":93.37660000000001}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩93.4T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">52.95%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":92.6208}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'><strong>₩92.6T</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><strong>52.03%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Active"}'>- Active</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":26.9769}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩27.0T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.20397795151753445}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R8C2">20.40%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":35.0249}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩35.0T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.19824502419133916}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R8C4">19.82%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":34.58823678}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'><strong>₩34.6T</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.1943}'><strong>19.43%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Passive"}'>- Passive</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44.6352}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩44.6T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.3374960303658113}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R8C2">33.75%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":58.351699999999994}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩58.4T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.3302774362840654}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R8C4">33.03%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":58.032759600000006}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'><strong>₩58.0T</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.326}'><strong>32.60%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Consignment management"}'>Consignment management</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":60.6419}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩60.6T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">45.85%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":83.2982}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩83.3T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">47.15%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":85.3938}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'><strong>₩85.4T</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><strong>47.97%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Active"}'>- Active</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":60.6419}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩60.6T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.45852601811665433}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R8C2">45.85%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":83.2982}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩83.3T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.4714775395245955}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R8C4">47.15%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":85.3938}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'><strong>₩85.4T</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.4797011031679424}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R8C6"><strong>47.97%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Passive"}'>- Passive</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩0.0T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R8C2">0.00%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩0.0T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R8C4">0.00%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'><strong>₩0.0T</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R8C6"><strong>0.00%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Total domestic Equity"}'>Total domestic equity</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":132.254}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩132.3T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=sum(R[-5]C[0]:R[-1]C[0])">100.00%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":176.67479999999998}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩176.7T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=sum(R[-5]C[0]:R[-1]C[0])">100.00%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":178.0146}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'><strong>₩178.0T</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.0000011031679423}' data-sheets-formula="=sum(R[-5]C[0]:R[-1]C[0])"><strong>100.00%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="7" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: NPS"}'>Source: NPS</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>The passively operated funds (32.60% of the total funds allocated to the domestic equity) are about ₩58T, and the benchmark is KOSPI 200. But not all amounts mechanically track the KOSPI 200. NPS employs various enhanced passive strategies, such as dividends, active quant, and factor model-based, in addition to conventional passive operations. To this end, NPS has developed and used various indices on its own since two years ago.</p>

New benchmarks for domestic equityThe National Pension Service has disclosed the following reform plan about the direct and consignment management benchmarks for domestic stocks.
As for the direct management, the National Pension Plan plans to internally develop and use a new index called NPS-KR250 by adding additional 50 KOSPI stocks to the KOSPI 200 constituents.
Regarding the consignment management, the KOSPI + KOSDAQ 100 stocks are currently used as benchmarks. This benchmark is reorganized into KOSPI + KOSDAQ 150, with 50 KOSDAQ stocks added.








Benchmark
Previous
New


Direct management
KOSPI 200
NPS-KR250 = KOSPI 200 + additional 50 KOSPI stocks


Consignment management
KOSPI + KOSDAQ 100
KOSPI + KOSDAQ 100 + additional 50 KOSDAQ stocks

Source: NPS

NPS size in the local stock marketAs of the end of April 2021, the National Pension Service has ₩883.6T in assets under management, of which ₩178T is invested in domestic stocks. Considering that the market capitalization of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets is currently around ₩2,800T, the national pension account for 6% of the Korean stock market.





Asset allocation status as of the end-April, 2021

Domestic Equity
₩178.1T


Global Equity
₩222.4T


Domestic fixed income
₩340.5T


Global fixed income
₩48.8T


Alternatives
₩92.8T

Source: NPS

The proportion of local equity is 20.17%, down slightly from the end of last year, but still far exceeding the target of 16.80% this year.Direct vs. consignment for local equityAs of the end of April this year, 52.03% of the funds invested in domestic stocks are direct management, then divided into active (19.43%) and passive (32.60%). The proportion of consignment management is 47.97%, and all of it is operated as active.











Direct vs. consignment for local equity
2019 yearend
Weight
2020 yearend
Weight
April-end, 2021
Weight


Direct management
₩71.6T
55.15%
₩93.4T
52.95%
₩92.6T
52.03%


- Active
₩27.0T
20.40%
₩35.0T
19.82%
₩34.6T
19.43%


- Passive
₩44.6T
33.75%
₩58.4T
33.03%
₩58.0T
32.60%


Consignment management
₩60.6T
45.85%
₩83.3T
47.15%
₩85.4T
47.97%


- Active
₩60.6T
45.85%
₩83.3T
47.15%
₩85.4T
47.97%


- Passive
₩0.0T
0.00%
₩0.0T
0.00%
₩0.0T
0.00%


Total domestic equity
₩132.3T
100.00%
₩176.7T
100.00%
₩178.0T
100.00%

Source: NPS

The passively operated funds (32.60% of the total funds allocated to the domestic equity) are about ₩58T, and the benchmark is KOSPI 200. But not all amounts mechanically track the KOSPI 200. NPS employs various enhanced passive strategies, such as dividends, active quant, and factor model-based, in addition to conventional passive operations. To this end, NPS has developed and used various indices on its own since two years ago.

NPS New Benchmarks for Local Stocks: NPS-KR250 (Direct) & KOSPI+KOSDAQ 150 (Consignment)

South Korea

Pulmuone Co., Ltd. is an investment holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, produces natural health food.

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Pulmuone Co Ltd (017810 KS)

KOSPI Size Indices: Momentum Stalls; (Some) Upward Migrations Sell-Off

There could be 41 changes to the KOSPI Size Indices in September. The upward migrations have underperformed the downward migrations over the last...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI Size Indices: Outperformance Slows on Momentum Stalls

There could be 41 stocks migrating between size segments in September. The upward migrations have outperformed the downward migrations but the...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI Size Indices: Potential Migrations in September Are Moving

There are many changes expected for the KOSPI size indices in September. The potential upward migrations have outperformed the potential downward...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI Size Indices - Potential Changes in March

The review period for the March rebal of the KOSPI Size Indices ends on 28 February. We see quite a lot of potential migrations. Some stocks could...

Brian Freitas

NPS New Benchmarks for Local Stocks: NPS-KR250 (Direct) & KOSPI+KOSDAQ 150 (Consignment)

The NPS has disclosed the reform plan about the direct and consignment management benchmarks for domestic stocks. This post details the new...

Sanghyun Park

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52-week Range

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