Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on 27th March, the family trust of the Widjaja Family made a voluntary unconditional general Offer for the 29.7% in <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinarmas-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1144:1" rel="noopener">Sinarmas Land (SML SP)</a></strong> not held.</li>
<li>Pricing was uninspiring: the S$0.31 cash Offer (not final) for the (mainly) Indo property play was a 12.9% premium to undisturbed; and a 73.9% discount to the 1H24 S$1.19/share NAV.</li>
<li>The IFA agreed and said "<strong>Not Fair but Reasonable"</strong>, with an estimated fair value range of S$0.350 to S$0.361/share. This (still) needs a bump. But that is looking less likely.</li>
</ul>


Back on 27th March, the family trust of the Widjaja Family made a voluntary unconditional general Offer for the 29.7% in Sinarmas Land (SML SP) not held.
Pricing was uninspiring: the S$0.31 cash Offer (not final) for the (mainly) Indo property play was a 12.9% premium to undisturbed; and a 73.9% discount to the 1H24 S$1.19/share NAV.
The IFA agreed and said "Not Fair but Reasonable", with an estimated fair value range of S$0.350 to S$0.361/share. This (still) needs a bump. But that is looking less likely.


Sinarmas Land: Bumping Fades Despite IFA Opining Not Fair

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/puradelta-lestari-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:428:1" rel="noopener">Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ)</a> remains one of the most interesting industrial estate developers in Indonesia with a high-quality tenant base across growth sectors including autos, 2W, pharmaceuticals, and data centres.</li>
<li>The completion of a new AEON Mall will provide a further draw for the estate as a destination and a place to live and work and is increasingly well-connected.</li>
<li>DMAS had a slower start to the year for revenues but marketing sales are running ahead of schedule having beat last year, with bookings expected to pick up in 2023.</li>
</ul>



Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ) remains one of the most interesting industrial estate developers in Indonesia with a high-quality tenant base across growth sectors including autos, 2W, pharmaceuticals, and data centres.
The completion of a new AEON Mall will provide a further draw for the estate as a destination and a place to live and work and is increasingly well-connected.
DMAS had a slower start to the year for revenues but marketing sales are running ahead of schedule having beat last year, with bookings expected to pick up in 2023.


Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ) - Cars, Drugs, and Data Centres

Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-keluarga-karyasehat-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:288:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Keluarga</a>'s 3Q2022 results reflected the changing environment with patient volumes higher and back above COVID levels but treatment intensity came down YoY in 3Q2022 given last year's Delta base.</li>
<li>MIKA continues to expand its hospital numbers through greenfield and brownfield expansions with three new hospitals due to open in the next 12 months plus it is open to M&amp;A.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-keluarga-karyasehat-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:288:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Keluarga's</a> treatment intensity should start to improve over the next few quarters given management's focus on this plus easier YoY comparisons. Valuations remain attractive versus historical levels. </li>
</ul>



Mitra Keluarga's 3Q2022 results reflected the changing environment with patient volumes higher and back above COVID levels but treatment intensity came down YoY in 3Q2022 given last year's Delta base.
MIKA continues to expand its hospital numbers through greenfield and brownfield expansions with three new hospitals due to open in the next 12 months plus it is open to M&amp;A.

Mitra Keluarga's treatment intensity should start to improve over the next few quarters given management's focus on this plus easier YoY comparisons. Valuations remain attractive versus historical levels. 


Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ) - Higher Volumes Lower Intensity

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 3 changes each for the IDX30 Index and LQ45 Index and 11 changes for the IDX80 Index at the upcoming rebalance to be implemented on 29 July.</li>
<li>There is passive inflow on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO)</a> due to index inclusion, and on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a> due to capping changes.</li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there will be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 changes each for the IDX30 Index and LQ45 Index and 11 changes for the IDX80 Index at the upcoming rebalance to be implemented on 29 July.
There is passive inflow on Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO) due to index inclusion, and on Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA) due to capping changes.
With only 4 days to implementation, there will be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Big Inflows on ARTO, BBRI, BBCA; Outflows on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> released a reassuring set of results with sales growing +13.6% and net profit by +12.5% in 2021, with growth coming from prescription drugs and distribution</li>
<li>2022 should see growth picking up across all of its divisions with recovery for consumer health and nutritionals plus its digital strategies are starting to make a difference. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma</a> trades in 22.8x FY22E PER and 21.0x FY23E PER versus its 5-year average forward PER of 26.3x forward PER, making it look attractive at current levels. </li>
</ul>



Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) released a reassuring set of results with sales growing +13.6% and net profit by +12.5% in 2021, with growth coming from prescription drugs and distribution
2022 should see growth picking up across all of its divisions with recovery for consumer health and nutritionals plus its digital strategies are starting to make a difference. 

Kalbe Farma trades in 22.8x FY22E PER and 21.0x FY23E PER versus its 5-year average forward PER of 26.3x forward PER, making it look attractive at current levels. 


Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) - Rebalancing Growth

Indonesia

PT Puradelta Lestari Tbk is an integrated property developer primarily known for developing Kota Deltamas, a large-scale integrated industrial estate, residential, and commercial area in Cikarang, West Java, Indonesia. The company's core activities include land acquisition, development, sale, and leasing of industrial, commercial, and residential properties, along with providing supporting infrastructure and facilities. Headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, the company was founded in 1993.

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Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ)

Sinarmas Land: Bumping Fades Despite IFA Opining Not Fair

This deserved a bump. But that scenario appears increasingly less likely. If illiquid arbs are your thing, and already in, I'd hit the bid. If not...

David Blennerhassett