Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

This report highlights actionable set ups from predominately European, developed markets, and is supportive of our view that Europe is bottoming, a viewpoint that remains far from consensus. Within Europe, we put a spotlight on Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40. Today’s recommendations are primarily from cyclical Sectors, however European Consumer Staples also exhibits bottoming RS.

This report highlights actionable set ups from predominately European, developed markets, and is supportive of our view that Europe is bottoming, a viewpoint that remains far from consensus. Within Europe, we put a spotlight on Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40. Today’s recommendations are primarily from cyclical Sectors, however European Consumer Staples also exhibits bottoming RS. 

Developed Markets Chart Book: Europe in Focus

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 16th June 2025, dual-listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tourism-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2787:1" rel="noopener">Tourism Holdings (THL NZ/AU)</a> announced an unsolicited NBIO from a consortium comprising BGH Capital and the founding Trouchet family.</li>
<li>The consortium, holding 19.9% of shares out, offered NZ$2.30/share for the world's largest commercial recreation vehicle rental operator. THL summarily rejected terms. Then crickets. </li>
<li>THL announced this morning a profit downgrade; and a revised NBIO from the consortium of NZ$3.10/share. ~16% of the register is supportive. The proposal expires on the 12th June. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 16th June 2025, dual-listed Tourism Holdings (THL NZ/AU) announced an unsolicited NBIO from a consortium comprising BGH Capital and the founding Trouchet family.
The consortium, holding 19.9% of shares out, offered NZ$2.30/share for the world's largest commercial recreation vehicle rental operator. THL summarily rejected terms. Then crickets. 
THL announced this morning a profit downgrade; and a revised NBIO from the consortium of NZ$3.10/share. ~16% of the register is supportive. The proposal expires on the 12th June. 


Tourism Holdings (THL NZ/AU): BGH & Trouchet Family Return To The Well

<ul>
<li>On the 12th May 2025, BGH and Portfolio Services, an entity associated with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ariadne-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7452:1" rel="noopener">Ariadne Australia (ARA AU)</a> and Gary Weiss, proposed a A$0.80/share cash Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/webjet-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45177:1" rel="noopener">Webjet Group (WJL AU)</a>.</li>
<li>That kickstarted a competitive bidding situation with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/helloworld-travel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16134:1" rel="noopener">Helloworld Ltd (HLO AU)</a>, culminating in Webjet ceasing discussions with both Helloworld and BGH/Weiss on the 13th Feb 2026.</li>
<li>Then crickets. BGH and Ariadne have now terminated their partnership. Webjet concurrently announces okay FY26 numbers. The share price is currently ~54% adrift of Helloworld &amp; BGH/Ariadne's NBIOs.</li>
</ul>


On the 12th May 2025, BGH and Portfolio Services, an entity associated with Ariadne Australia (ARA AU) and Gary Weiss, proposed a A$0.80/share cash Offer for Webjet Group (WJL AU).
That kickstarted a competitive bidding situation with Helloworld Ltd (HLO AU), culminating in Webjet ceasing discussions with both Helloworld and BGH/Weiss on the 13th Feb 2026.
Then crickets. BGH and Ariadne have now terminated their partnership. Webjet concurrently announces okay FY26 numbers. The share price is currently ~54% adrift of Helloworld &amp; BGH/Ariadne's NBIOs.


Webjet (WJL AU) (Further) Rolls Over After Ariadne & BGH Terminate Co-Op

<ul>
<li>After some competitive jostling late last year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/helloworld-travel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16134:1" rel="noopener">Helloworld Ltd (HLO AU)</a> and BGH Capital tabled all-cash NBIOs for digital travel agent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/webjet-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45177:1" rel="noopener">Webjet Group (WJL AU)</a> at A$0.90/share and A$0.91/share respectively. </li>
<li>Following protracted due diligence, neither suitor firmed proposals worthy of putting to shareholders, and Webjet subsequently ceased discussion on the 13th February. The share price promptly cratered.</li>
<li>Katrina Barry has now resigned as chief executive - less than two years into her new role - and just five weeks after the departure of her boss, David Galt.</li>
</ul>


After some competitive jostling late last year, Helloworld Ltd (HLO AU) and BGH Capital tabled all-cash NBIOs for digital travel agent Webjet Group (WJL AU) at A$0.90/share and A$0.91/share respectively. 
Following protracted due diligence, neither suitor firmed proposals worthy of putting to shareholders, and Webjet subsequently ceased discussion on the 13th February. The share price promptly cratered.
Katrina Barry has now resigned as chief executive - less than two years into her new role - and just five weeks after the departure of her boss, David Galt.


Webjet (WJL AU): CEO's Surprise Exit May Kickstart Takeover Discussions

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/webjet-wjl-au-undisclosed-buyer-buying" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:185607" rel="noopener">Webjet (WJL AU): Undisclosed Buyer Buying</a>,  rumours surfaced earlier this year of an undisclosed buyer with ~5%. On the 12th May, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/helloworld-travel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16134:1" rel="noopener">Helloworld (HLO AU)</a> emerged with a 5.015% stake.</li>
<li>On the same day, Gary Weiss/BGH, collectively holding 10.76%, launched a A$0.80/share NBIO, which was subsequently rejected. Undeterred, Weiss/BGH has called for an EGM (21st November) to spill the board.</li>
<li>Helloworld has now tabled a A$0.90/share non-binding Offer, by way of Scheme. The 1H26 dividend of A$0.002/share will be added. Helloworld currently holds 17.27%. Weiss/BGH hold 17.75%.</li>
</ul>


In Webjet (WJL AU): Undisclosed Buyer Buying,  rumours surfaced earlier this year of an undisclosed buyer with ~5%. On the 12th May, Helloworld (HLO AU) emerged with a 5.015% stake.
On the same day, Gary Weiss/BGH, collectively holding 10.76%, launched a A$0.80/share NBIO, which was subsequently rejected. Undeterred, Weiss/BGH has called for an EGM (21st November) to spill the board.
Helloworld has now tabled a A$0.90/share non-binding Offer, by way of Scheme. The 1H26 dividend of A$0.002/share will be added. Helloworld currently holds 17.27%. Weiss/BGH hold 17.75%.


Webjet (WJL AU): Helloworld Steps Up As Weiss/BGH Seek Board Spill

New Zealand

Pushpay Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, designs and develops mobile payment application and solutions that allows users to donate to charities and non-profit organization. Pushpay Holdings conducts its business worldwide.

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Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)

Developed Markets Chart Book: Europe in Focus

This report highlights actionable set ups from predominately European, developed markets, and is supportive of our view that Europe is bottoming, a...

Vermilion Research

Tourism Holdings (THL NZ/AU): BGH & Trouchet Family Return To The Well

This Offer is less opportunistic. And key shareholders are supportive. THL should engage. If small, illiquid, non-binding arbs, are your bag, I'd...

David Blennerhassett

Webjet (WJL AU) (Further) Rolls Over After Ariadne & BGH Terminate Co-Op

At this price level, I doubt Helloworld, Ariadne, and/or BGH are out of the picture. Still, absent an Offer (indicative or otherwise), I'd be...

David Blennerhassett

Webjet (WJL AU): CEO's Surprise Exit May Kickstart Takeover Discussions

Webjet is still very much in play. Barry's departure not only establishes a leadership vacuum; but potentially removes the legal uncertainty...

David Blennerhassett

Webjet (WJL AU): Helloworld Steps Up As Weiss/BGH Seek Board Spill

BGH counters with a non-binding A$0.91/share off-market Offer, conditional on a 75% minimum acceptance condition. BGH/Gary Weiss hold 18.3%. The...

David Blennerhassett

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