HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

GigaDevice Semiconductor  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gigadevice-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46238:1" rel="noopener">GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK)</a>'s grey market price of HK$224.8 is 38.8% higher than the IPO price. This means a PER of 53.5x for FY26, simply too stretched for us. </li>
<li>The grey market price represents a 68-77% FY26 PER premium to the most-expensive peers, namely <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microchip-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8788:1" rel="noopener">Microchip Technology (MCHP US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/texas-instruments-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18804:1" rel="noopener">Texas Instruments (TXN US)</a>. </li>
<li>Our fair value range is HK$204-238, based on the HA discount for 2025 IPOs and the current overall HA discount, implying limited upside potential.</li>
</ul>



GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK)'s grey market price of HK$224.8 is 38.8% higher than the IPO price. This means a PER of 53.5x for FY26, simply too stretched for us. 
The grey market price represents a 68-77% FY26 PER premium to the most-expensive peers, namely Microchip Technology (MCHP US) and Texas Instruments (TXN US). 
Our fair value range is HK$204-238, based on the HA discount for 2025 IPOs and the current overall HA discount, implying limited upside potential.


GigaDevice (3986 HK): Its Just Too Demanding

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

GigaDevice Semiconductor  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>According to our valuation analysis, the implied target price of GigaDevice Semiconductor post secondary listing in Hong Kong is 230 HKD. </li>
<li>This is 42% higher than the high end of the IPO price range (HKD162 per share). We have assumed a 25% discount to H shares versus the A shares. </li>
<li>To value GigaDevice Semiconductor, we used four comps including Winbond Electronics (2344 TT), Puya Semiconductor Shanghai (688766 CH), Ingenic Semiconductor Co A (300223 CH), and Shenzhen Techwinsemi.</li>
</ul>


According to our valuation analysis, the implied target price of GigaDevice Semiconductor post secondary listing in Hong Kong is 230 HKD. 
This is 42% higher than the high end of the IPO price range (HKD162 per share). We have assumed a 25% discount to H shares versus the A shares. 
To value GigaDevice Semiconductor, we used four comps including Winbond Electronics (2344 TT), Puya Semiconductor Shanghai (688766 CH), Ingenic Semiconductor Co A (300223 CH), and Shenzhen Techwinsemi.


GigaDevice Semiconductor HK Listing Valuation Analysis

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>CSI All Share Semiconductors &amp; Semiconductor Equipment Index represents the largest and most-liquid stocks in the Semiconductor Industry Group from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Exchanges.</li>
<li>In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.</li>
<li>We expect up to four ADDs and six DELs for the CSI All Share Semiconductors index during this index review based on the latest available data.</li>
</ul>


CSI All Share Semiconductors &amp; Semiconductor Equipment Index represents the largest and most-liquid stocks in the Semiconductor Industry Group from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Exchanges.
In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
We expect up to four ADDs and six DELs for the CSI All Share Semiconductors index during this index review based on the latest available data.


Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Jun25: Final Expectations

<ul>
<li>CSI All Share Semiconductors &amp; Semiconductor Equipment Index represents the largest and most-liquid stocks in the Semiconductor Industry Group from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Exchanges.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.</li>
<li>We expect up to six ADDs and seven DELs for the CSI All Share Semiconductors index during this index review event based on the latest available data.</li>
</ul>


CSI All Share Semiconductors &amp; Semiconductor Equipment Index represents the largest and most-liquid stocks in the Semiconductor Industry Group from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Exchanges.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
We expect up to six ADDs and seven DELs for the CSI All Share Semiconductors index during this index review event based on the latest available data.


Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Jun25: Good Momentum for Exp ADDs Vs DELs Trade

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

United Nova Technology   / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following a methodology change in mid-November for the CSI All Share Semiconductor Index, there are 7 adds and 29 deletes for the index in December.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 6% leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 3.15bn (US$435m).</li>
<li>The adds outperformed the deletes bigly in the first 2 weeks of November. Some of those gains have been given back but a new uptrend seems to be taking shape.</li>
</ul>


Following a methodology change in mid-November for the CSI All Share Semiconductor Index, there are 7 adds and 29 deletes for the index in December.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 6% leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 3.15bn (US$435m).
The adds outperformed the deletes bigly in the first 2 weeks of November. Some of those gains have been given back but a new uptrend seems to be taking shape.


CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance: Methodology Change Leads to 7 Adds, 29 Deletes

China

Puya Semiconductor (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. produces and sells semiconductor devices. The Company manufactures and sells flash memory integrated circuit, high reliability memory integrated circuit, and other products. Puya Semiconductor (Shanghai) markets its products throughout China.

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GigaDevice (3986 HK): Its Just Too Demanding

​GigaDevice's grey market price is 38.8% higher than IPO, leading to a FY26 PER of 53.5x, with limited upside potential compared to peers, even...

Osbert Tang, CFA

GigaDevice Semiconductor HK Listing Valuation Analysis

According to our valuation analysis, the implied target price of GigaDevice Semiconductor post secondary listing in Hong Kong is 230 HKD.

Douglas Kim

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Jun25: Final Expectations

Most of the final expected ADDs/DELs were flagged by us in January 2025. These esoteric index flow considerations could be useful for China-focused...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Jun25: Good Momentum for Exp ADDs Vs DELs Trade

Some of the expected ADDs have been strongly outperforming some of the expected DELs since mid-November 2024 and this could continue over the next...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance: Methodology Change Leads to 7 Adds, 29 Deletes

There are 7 adds, 29 deletes in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 6% leading to a round-trip trade of US$435m. There are same way flows from other...

Brian Freitas

GigaDevice's grey market price is 38.8% higher than IPO, leading to a FY26 PER of 53.5x, with limited upside potential compared to peers, even...