Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pvr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10144:1" rel="noopener">PVR Ltd (PVRL IN)</a> 's December performance on ATP and SHP was very encouraging. If the trend sustains we believe the earnings recovery would be much faster than anticipated. </li>
<li>New trends in content consumption, strong content pipeline and truce with OTT players make a case for a solid recovery for the Industry.</li>
<li>PVR has historically traded at an average of 11.4x EV/EBITDA. Based on our current estimates and conservative 10.5x multiple, there is a return potential of &gt;20% from these levels.</li>
</ul>



PVR Ltd (PVRL IN) 's December performance on ATP and SHP was very encouraging. If the trend sustains we believe the earnings recovery would be much faster than anticipated. 
New trends in content consumption, strong content pipeline and truce with OTT players make a case for a solid recovery for the Industry.
PVR has historically traded at an average of 11.4x EV/EBITDA. Based on our current estimates and conservative 10.5x multiple, there is a return potential of &gt;20% from these levels.


PVR (PVRL IN) | Q3 | The "Pricy" Show Has Begun

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h3>About The Narrative</h3>
<p>Earnings conference calls are important sources that aid us in the identification of potential catalysts and drivers of stock returns. Every quarter we go through these transcripts and connect them with primary research with the objective of assessing on-ground reality against management commentary. </p>
<p>The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-paints-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6354:1" rel="noopener">Asian Paints (APNT IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pvr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10144:1" rel="noopener">PVR Ltd (PVRL IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a> (Retail) / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/titan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12630:1" rel="noopener">Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/page-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4940:1" rel="noopener">Page Industries (PAG IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interglobe-aviation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24877:1" rel="noopener">InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN)</a> </p>
<p>We have separated the quotes to highlight<em><strong> Business Environment &amp; Key Drivers, Pricing and Premiumisation, Competition, Margins &amp; Commodity Inflation and Outlook.</strong></em></p>

About The Narrative
Earnings conference calls are important sources that aid us in the identification of potential catalysts and drivers of stock returns. Every quarter we go through these transcripts and connect them with primary research with the objective of assessing on-ground reality against management commentary. 
The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of Asian Paints (APNT IN) / PVR Ltd (PVRL IN) / Reliance Industries (RIL IN) (Retail) / Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) / Page Industries (PAG IN) / InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) 
We have separated the quotes to highlight Business Environment &amp; Key Drivers, Pricing and Premiumisation, Competition, Margins &amp; Commodity Inflation and Outlook.

The Narrative | Q2 FY22 | India Consumer - Asian Paints, PVR, Reliance Retail, Titan, Page, Indigo

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

<p>PVR restarted operations from 30th Jul'21, garnering 4% occupancy levels, with 588 operational screens (~70% by Sep'21). The quarterly operating loss run-rate was contained at INR1.2b v/s an operating loss of INR810m YoY and INR1.3b QoQ, with revenue down 89% in 2QFY22 against preCOVID or 2QFY20 levels. A strong pipeline of movies to be released coupled with a fully operational network, despite some restrictions, should usher a revival.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

PVR restarted operations from 30th Jul'21, garnering 4% occupancy levels, with 588 operational screens (~70% by Sep'21). The quarterly operating loss run-rate was contained at INR1.2b v/s an operating loss of INR810m YoY and INR1.3b QoQ, with revenue down 89% in 2QFY22 against preCOVID or 2QFY20 levels. A strong pipeline of movies to be released coupled with a fully operational network, despite some restrictions, should usher a revival.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Geojit BNP Paribas

Geojit

<p>PVR Ltd owns and operates multiplexes across 21 States and UT's with 846 screens (including 9 in Colombo). Major income segments for them are Box office, Food &amp; Beverage (F&amp;B;) and Advertisement (Ad). PVR reported revenue of Rs.59cr (Q4FY21-Rs.181cr) from core operations as Covid second wave impacted Q1FY22 operations significantly. 63% of total screens are permitted to operate with various restrictions...</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

PVR Ltd owns and operates multiplexes across 21 States and UT's with 846 screens (including 9 in Colombo). Major income segments for them are Box office, Food &amp; Beverage (F&amp;B;) and Advertisement (Ad). PVR reported revenue of Rs.59cr (Q4FY21-Rs.181cr) from core operations as Covid second wave impacted Q1FY22 operations significantly. 63% of total screens are permitted to operate with various restrictions...Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PVR Ltd: Cinemas Reopened; Third Wave Fear Persist

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

<p>EBITDA loss (without impact of Ind-AS116) was at Rs 121.5 crore against EBITDA loss of Rs 127.7 crore in Q4 as it has provided for lower rental expenses (Rs 30.9 crore vs. Rs 70.9 crore in Q4) given they are under...</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

EBITDA loss (without impact of Ind-AS116) was at Rs 121.5 crore against EBITDA loss of Rs 127.7 crore in Q4 as it has provided for lower rental expenses (Rs 30.9 crore vs. Rs 70.9 crore in Q4) given they are under...Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

PVR INOX Limited operates cinemas. The Company owns and manages multiplex movie theaters.

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Pvr Inox (PVRINOX IN)

PVR (PVRL IN) | Q3 | The "Pricy" Show Has Begun

PVR's commentary on ATP and SHP is very encouraging. New trends in content consumption, strong content pipeline and truce with OTT players make a...

Pranav Bhavsar

The Narrative | Q2 FY22 | India Consumer - Asian Paints, PVR, Reliance Retail, Titan, Page, Indigo

The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of Asian Paints / PVR Ltd / Reliance Retail / Titan / Page Industries /Indigo

Pranav Bhavsar

Recovery in occupancies key to growth

PVR restarted operations from 30th Jul'21, garnering 4% occupancy levels, with 588 operational screens (~70% by Sep'21). The quarterly operating...

Motilal Oswal

PVR Ltd: Cinemas Reopened; Third Wave Fear Persist

PVR Ltd owns and operates multiplexes across 21 States and UT's with 846 screens (including 9 in Colombo). Major income segments for them are Box...

Geojit

PVR: Post Reopening Response Key Ahead

EBITDA loss (without impact of Ind-AS116) was at Rs 121.5 crore against EBITDA loss of Rs 127.7 crore in Q4 as it has provided for lower rental...

ICICI Securities Limited

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