Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

On the 9 June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> disclosed in its massive recapitalisation proposal <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0609/2020060900356.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a>, that:
<blockquote>
By the fourth quarter of 2020, Cathay Pacific’s management team will recommend to the Board the optimum size and shape of the Cathay Pacific Group to meet the air travel needs of Hong Kong while keeping Cathay Pacific’s financial status at a healthy level and meeting its responsibilities to Shareholder - <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0609/2020060900356.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">page 6</a>
</blockquote>
This morning, Cathay <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/1021/2020102100213.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> its board had approved the following restructuring plan:
<ul>
<li>Its wholly-owned Cathay Dragon, will cease its operations with effect from today. It is intended that regulatory approval will be sought for a majority of Cathay Dragon’s routes to be operated by the Company and wholly-owned subsidiary low-cost carrier, Hong Kong Express Airways.</li>
<li>Approximately 8,500 positions across the Cathay Pacific Group (including Cathay Dragon) will be eliminated, accounting for around 24% of the Cathay Pacific Group’s headcount of 35,000.</li>
<li>Hong Kong-based cabin and cockpit crew of Cathay Pacific will be asked to agree to changes in their conditions of service which are designed, inter alia, to match remuneration more closely to productivity and to enhance market competitiveness.</li>
</ul>
This restructuring will cost HK$2.2bn, to be funded internally. 
Cathay is still running at a HK$1.5-HK$2bn/monthly loss. This restructuring is expected to save HK$500mn/month once fully implemented in 2021.
Separately <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a>'s discount to NAV appears to have met support at around the current NAV discount.
As always, more below the fold.

On the 9 June, Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) disclosed in its massive recapitalisation proposal announcement, that:

By the fourth quarter of 2020, Cathay Pacific’s management team will recommend to the Board the optimum size and shape of the Cathay Pacific Group to meet the air travel needs of Hong Kong while keeping Cathay Pacific’s financial status at a healthy level and meeting its responsibilities to Shareholder - page 6

This morning, Cathay announced its board had approved the following restructuring plan:

Its wholly-owned Cathay Dragon, will cease its operations with effect from today. It is intended that regulatory approval will be sought for a majority of Cathay Dragon’s routes to be operated by the Company and wholly-owned subsidiary low-cost carrier, Hong Kong Express Airways.
Approximately 8,500 positions across the Cathay Pacific Group (including Cathay Dragon) will be eliminated, accounting for around 24% of the Cathay Pacific Group’s headcount of 35,000.
Hong Kong-based cabin and cockpit crew of Cathay Pacific will be asked to agree to changes in their conditions of service which are designed, inter alia, to match remuneration more closely to productivity and to enhance market competitiveness.

This restructuring will cost HK$2.2bn, to be funded internally. 
Cathay is still running at a HK$1.5-HK$2bn/monthly loss. This restructuring is expected to save HK$500mn/month once fully implemented in 2021.
Separately Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)'s discount to NAV appears to have met support at around the current NAV discount.
As always, more below the fold.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qantas-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:677:1" rel="noopener">Qantas Airways (QAN AU)</a> aims to raise around US$933m (A$1.36bn) via an institutional placement and another US$343m (A$500m) via a share purchase plan. The company has also announced a host of other cost savings measures and is now gearing up for an extended slowdown which will last a year or two.In this insight, I'll talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Qantas Airways (QAN AU) aims to raise around US$933m (A$1.36bn) via an institutional placement and another US$343m (A$500m) via a share purchase plan. The company has also announced a host of other cost savings measures and is now gearing up for an extended slowdown which will last a year or two.In this insight, I'll talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Qantas Placement - Banking on a Trans-Tasman Travel Bubble

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Travelsky Technology Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

Tourism activities have started to pick up again in China and airports have started to reopen again, increasing the air traffic volume from a low base. The number of domestic flights processed has rebounded in March 2020 by 98% MoM and another 13% on April MoM. 
The China Tourism day, which falls on May 19th each year, witnessed alternative efforts from operators to deal with the restrictions amidst the pandemic. The Shanghai Disneyland theme park reopened to visitors with reduced capacity on May 11, the first Disneyland theme park in the world that has resumed operations since the outbreak of COVID-19. 
Foreign airlines such as Asiana and Korea Air have stated that they plan to start providing flights to China again by the end of June, hinting that demand for air travel has started to come back.  
There are so many unknowns on how the airlines are going to operate given the measures to cope with the "new normal".  Given the low share price base for Chinese airlines in general, the risk/reward ratio for going long Travelsky and short some Chinese airlines is not that attractive. 
At 15x earnings, 22% discount to the level right before the COVID-19 outbreak, and 50% lower than in FY 2017 while it is also worth highlighting that currently, the company is trading at the lowest PE multiples in 3 years, Travelsky trades at an undemanding valuation and a continuous share price recovery should be expected. 
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/135/036/original/image_14558500221590112697719.png?1590112700" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="135036"></figure>
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source: Capital IQ
</div>
<div class="content-highlight">
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</div>

Tourism activities have started to pick up again in China and airports have started to reopen again, increasing the air traffic volume from a low base. The number of domestic flights processed has rebounded in March 2020 by 98% MoM and another 13% on April MoM. 
The China Tourism day, which falls on May 19th each year, witnessed alternative efforts from operators to deal with the restrictions amidst the pandemic. The Shanghai Disneyland theme park reopened to visitors with reduced capacity on May 11, the first Disneyland theme park in the world that has resumed operations since the outbreak of COVID-19. 
Foreign airlines such as Asiana and Korea Air have stated that they plan to start providing flights to China again by the end of June, hinting that demand for air travel has started to come back.  
There are so many unknowns on how the airlines are going to operate given the measures to cope with the "new normal".  Given the low share price base for Chinese airlines in general, the risk/reward ratio for going long Travelsky and short some Chinese airlines is not that attractive. 
At 15x earnings, 22% discount to the level right before the COVID-19 outbreak, and 50% lower than in FY 2017 while it is also worth highlighting that currently, the company is trading at the lowest PE multiples in 3 years, Travelsky trades at an undemanding valuation and a continuous share price recovery should be expected. 


source: Capital IQ


Thanks in advance for reading this insight!  Please give this a thumbs up if you find this useful and follow me on Smartkarma for more original and actionable insights; it's free, anonymous, and helpful. Please also feel free to post a comment or message me directly if you have any queries regarding this insight. Your continuing support renders a continuity of more original and actionable insights.  


Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

We are launching a new monthly product designed to track regional tourism activity, with an emphasis on Chinese tourism. The objectives of this monthly product are three-fold: 
<ol>
<li>To track the near-term recovery in regional tourism activity</li>
<li>To track the medium-term trends in the Chinese tourism market</li>
<li>To provide context by showing the scale cross-border regional tourism flows</li>
</ol>
The new product consists of weekly, monthly, and annual data we collect and display in eleven Google Data Studio reports; many of these reports are interactive. Each report is accompanied by brief commentary on the data, which we will update regularly.
We believe the report includes timely information that describes current conditions and even a look into the near future. It also provides needed context about which tourism markets are more or less likely to 'move the needle' for service providers like airlines and hotel chains. In short, we think this report can help investors identify signs of a recovery in tourism activity in China and the region, hopefully later in 2020. 
Based on data from the week ending April 24th, we highlight a few takeaways. It appears air travel to and from Chinese cities is recovering gradually, while departures at most of the regional airports we track remains weak. Hotel availability is mixed, but weighted average room rates for the cities we track remain under pressure.

We are launching a new monthly product designed to track regional tourism activity, with an emphasis on Chinese tourism. The objectives of this monthly product are three-fold: 

To track the near-term recovery in regional tourism activity
To track the medium-term trends in the Chinese tourism market
To provide context by showing the scale cross-border regional tourism flows

The new product consists of weekly, monthly, and annual data we collect and display in eleven Google Data Studio reports; many of these reports are interactive. Each report is accompanied by brief commentary on the data, which we will update regularly.
We believe the report includes timely information that describes current conditions and even a look into the near future. It also provides needed context about which tourism markets are more or less likely to 'move the needle' for service providers like airlines and hotel chains. In short, we think this report can help investors identify signs of a recovery in tourism activity in China and the region, hopefully later in 2020. 
Based on data from the week ending April 24th, we highlight a few takeaways. It appears air travel to and from Chinese cities is recovering gradually, while departures at most of the regional airports we track remains weak. Hotel availability is mixed, but weighted average room rates for the cities we track remain under pressure. 

TRACKING TRAFFIC’s Travel Tracker Dashboard

Transurban Group / Equity Capital Markets

Over the past two weeks, Australia and New Zealand have collectively seen over ten placements/entitlement offerings, of which we have covered nine. 
Along with the pick-up in deal activity we have also been fielding more questions about which other companies could come to the market. In this insight, we aim to narrow the list down.

Over the past two weeks, Australia and New Zealand have collectively seen over ten placements/entitlement offerings, of which we have covered nine. 
Along with the pick-up in deal activity we have also been fielding more questions about which other companies could come to the market. In this insight, we aim to narrow the list down.

Australia and New Zealand Candidates for Placement

Australia

Qantas Airways Limited provides transportation of passengers through two airlines including Qantas (full service carrier) and Jetstar (low cost carrier), operating international, domestic and regional services. The Company also includes Qantas Frequent Flyer and Qantas Freight which generates diverse revenue streams and adds value for customers and investors.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Qantas Airways (QAN AU)

Cathay Pacific: Exit The Dragon

With passenger travel unlikely to return to pre-COVID-19 levels until 2024, the inevitable staff cut is announced, together with the cessation of...

David Blennerhassett

Qantas Placement - Banking on a Trans-Tasman Travel Bubble

Qantas Airways (QAN AU) aims to raise around US$933m (A$1.36bn) via an institutional placement and another US$343m (A$500m) via a share purchase...

Sumeet Singh

Travelsky (696): A Safe Way to Fly

Tourism activities have started to pick up again in China and airports have started to reopen again, increasing the air traffic volume from a low...

Henry Soediarko

TRACKING TRAFFIC’s Travel Tracker Dashboard

We are launching a new monthly product designed to track regional tourism activity, with an emphasis on Chinese tourism. The objectives of this...

Tracking Traffic

Australia and New Zealand Candidates for Placement

Over the past two weeks, Australia and New Zealand have collectively seen over ten placements/entitlement offerings, of which we have covered...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)