Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 16th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Seek, Origin Energy, Woodside Energy, ANZ, Qantas Airways.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 16th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Seek, Origin Energy, Woodside Energy, ANZ, Qantas Airways.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 16th): Seek, Origin Energy, Woodside Energy, ANZ, Qantas Airways

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With 1H24 results, Qantas followed Singapore Airlines in highlighting fare weakness in international markets and we cut our pre-tax income by 13% to FY24.</li>
<li>We expect FY24 pre-tax income to fall 16% yoy but also expect FY25 to fall another 5%, as our EBITDAR/ASK remains 10% above FY19 levels following 12% in 2H24.</li>
<li>While international markets continue to normalise, Qantas's domestic market structure positions it favourably to continue to invest in customer service and product.</li>
</ul>


With 1H24 results, Qantas followed Singapore Airlines in highlighting fare weakness in international markets and we cut our pre-tax income by 13% to FY24.
We expect FY24 pre-tax income to fall 16% yoy but also expect FY25 to fall another 5%, as our EBITDAR/ASK remains 10% above FY19 levels following 12% in 2H24.
While international markets continue to normalise, Qantas's domestic market structure positions it favourably to continue to invest in customer service and product.


Qantas – Two-Year Earnings Re-Set in Prospect

<ul>
<li>For 1H24 we model EBITDAR of A$2,396m, ahead of Visible Alpha consensus of A$2,273m, which represents an EBITDAR/ASK 35% higher than 1H19.</li>
<li>1H24 will be important to help us better understand "normalised" unit cost levels, with inflation high to date, in part due to a 17% capacity deficit in 2H23.</li>
<li>Qantas has seen comparable inflation to the US majors but considerably higher profitability. This should enable it to invest in product, operational and customer service improvements while protecting margins.</li>
</ul>


For 1H24 we model EBITDAR of A$2,396m, ahead of Visible Alpha consensus of A$2,273m, which represents an EBITDAR/ASK 35% higher than 1H19.
1H24 will be important to help us better understand "normalised" unit cost levels, with inflation high to date, in part due to a 17% capacity deficit in 2H23.
Qantas has seen comparable inflation to the US majors but considerably higher profitability. This should enable it to invest in product, operational and customer service improvements while protecting margins.


Qantas - 1H24 to Provide Evidence of Margin Control

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qantas-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:677:1" rel="noopener">Qantas Airways (QAN AU)</a> (QAN) is enjoying the best time of its life on industry consolidation benefits, demand exceeding supply to many sectors, and flourishing air cargo  </li>
<li>Domestic Australia is an ironclad goldmine, with a benign competitive environment as the archrival is busy restructuring. International sector capacity deployment is picking up, but still deep in underserved territory     </li>
<li>Target price AUD6.58 (+23% UPSIDE), based on 7x CY2024 PE - long-term historical mean. AUD500 million share buyback should provide downside support </li>
</ul>



Qantas Airways (QAN AU) (QAN) is enjoying the best time of its life on industry consolidation benefits, demand exceeding supply to many sectors, and flourishing air cargo  
Domestic Australia is an ironclad goldmine, with a benign competitive environment as the archrival is busy restructuring. International sector capacity deployment is picking up, but still deep in underserved territory     
Target price AUD6.58 (+23% UPSIDE), based on 7x CY2024 PE - long-term historical mean. AUD500 million share buyback should provide downside support 


Qantas Airways (QAN AU | BUY | TP:AU$6.58): Smooth Operator

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 15th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in BHP, Rio Tinto, Macquarie, Wisetech Global, Fortescue, Westpac, ANZ, Qantas Airways.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 15th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.1bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in BHP, Rio Tinto, Macquarie, Wisetech Global, Fortescue, Westpac, ANZ, Qantas Airways.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 15th): BHP, Rio Tinto, Macquarie, Wisetech Global, Fortescue, Westpac

Australia

Qantas Airways Limited provides transportation of passengers through two airlines including Qantas (full service carrier) and Jetstar (low cost carrier), operating international, domestic and regional services. The Company also includes Qantas Frequent Flyer and Qantas Freight which generates diverse revenue streams and adds value for customers and investors.

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Qantas Airways (QAN AU)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 16th): Seek, Origin Energy, Woodside Energy, ANZ, Qantas Airways

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Seek, Origin Energy, Woodside Energy, ANZ, Qantas...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Qantas – Two-Year Earnings Re-Set in Prospect

A deep dive into Qantas's inflation management and 2H24 / FY25 earnings prospects - we highlight our expectation that FY24 will decline on FY23,...

Neil Glynn

Qantas - 1H24 to Provide Evidence of Margin Control

We outline Qantas's ability to control profitability at record FY23 levels on the last leg of capacity restoration. We compare its inflation to the...

Neil Glynn