Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Australia in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on ANZ, CAR, Fortescue, Pro Medicus, BHP, Vicinity Centres Re, Cochlear.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Australia in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on ANZ, CAR, Fortescue, Pro Medicus, BHP, Vicinity Centres Re, Cochlear.


MS-Australia Index Earning Revision (Aug): ANZ, CAR, Fortescue, Pro Medicus, BHP, Cochlear

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/875bc9d9-4bcf-4494-94b2-993dfe44d8e1?syn-25a6b1a6=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FT reports</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokio-marine-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7591:1" rel="noopener">Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP)</a> has identified <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suncorp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4218:1" rel="noopener">Suncorp (SUN AU)</a> as its preferred acquisition target. Tokio Marine has previously flagged an interest in Australia.</li>
<li>A potential acquisition would likely require approvals from FIRB, APRA and the ACCC. While the process can be lengthy, the approvals should be forthcoming.</li>
<li>My analysis suggests a potential offer price range of A$20.00 to A$21.50 per share, a 3.3% to 11.0% premium to the last close of A$19.37. </li>
</ul>


The FT reports that Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) has identified Suncorp (SUN AU) as its preferred acquisition target. Tokio Marine has previously flagged an interest in Australia.
A potential acquisition would likely require approvals from FIRB, APRA and the ACCC. While the process can be lengthy, the approvals should be forthcoming.
My analysis suggests a potential offer price range of A$20.00 to A$21.50 per share, a 3.3% to 11.0% premium to the last close of A$19.37. 


Suncorp (SUN AU): Tokio Marine’s Rumoured Preferred Acquisition Target

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Australia Securities &amp; Investment Commission produces high-frequency data on insolvencies, which is valuable data for analyzing banks. There is pronounced deterioration in at least 3 sectors.</li>
<li>In construction, total appointments rose to 829 YTD to 10 Sept 2023 from 588 a year ago and from 250 in the preceding comparable period. </li>
<li>Hotel &amp; food services and retail trade are also seeing high growth of insolvencies. Australia's banks will likely face more defaults, NPLs and credit costs. </li>
</ul>


Australia Securities &amp; Investment Commission produces high-frequency data on insolvencies, which is valuable data for analyzing banks. There is pronounced deterioration in at least 3 sectors.
In construction, total appointments rose to 829 YTD to 10 Sept 2023 from 588 a year ago and from 250 in the preceding comparable period. 
Hotel &amp; food services and retail trade are also seeing high growth of insolvencies. Australia's banks will likely face more defaults, NPLs and credit costs. 


Australia - New Insolvencies Data: Construction Appointments at 829 Vs 588 YoY | Credit Risk Worsens

<ul>
<li>Newly released data in Australia suggests worsening earnings for banks in the coming 1-2 quarters at least, from both less credit volume and higher credit costs.</li>
<li>Retail sales figures are just out with the YoY change continuing to grind lower, now at only 1.45% with implications for credit card transactions and consumer underlying strength.</li>
<li>General Business Situation survey for next 6 months is now lower than its trough in year 2020. New median house price data shows negative growth for 3 consecutive quarters.</li>
</ul>


Newly released data in Australia suggests worsening earnings for banks in the coming 1-2 quarters at least, from both less credit volume and higher credit costs.
Retail sales figures are just out with the YoY change continuing to grind lower, now at only 1.45% with implications for credit card transactions and consumer underlying strength.
General Business Situation survey for next 6 months is now lower than its trough in year 2020. New median house price data shows negative growth for 3 consecutive quarters.


Australia Banks - New Data Suggests Weaker Profit, Primarily from Loan Volume & Credit Costs

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 10th August, published on the 14th August.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$1.4bn into "Metals"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.1bn out of "Food Retail". Net shorts increased A$3.7bn(!) week-on-week.
</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp (LYC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pls-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">PLS Group (PLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining (EVN AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a>. 
</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 10th August, published on the 14th August.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$1.4bn into "Metals"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.1bn out of "Food Retail". Net shorts increased A$3.7bn(!) week-on-week.

Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU), Lynas Corp (LYC AU), PLS Group (PLS AU), Evolution Mining (EVN AU), and Genesis Minerals (GMD AU). 



Aussie Shorts [10 Aug 2026]: Rio Tinto, Lynas, PLS Group, Evolution Mining, Genesis Minerals

Australia

QBE Insurance Group Limited is an insurance company which underwrites most forms of commercial and industrial insurance policies, as well as individual policies. QBE also manages Lloyds syndicates and provides investment management services. The Company provides its services both domestically and internationally.

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Qbe Insurance (QBE AU)

MS-Australia Index Earning Revision (Aug): ANZ, CAR, Fortescue, Pro Medicus, BHP, Cochlear

We analyzed MS-Australia's consensus for Aug 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in ANZ, CAR, Fortescue, Pro Medicus, BHP, Vicinity Centres Re,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Suncorp (SUN AU): Tokio Marine’s Rumoured Preferred Acquisition Target

My analysis suggests a potential offer price range of A$20.00 to A$21.50 per share, a 3.3% to 11.0% premium to the last close of A$19.37.

Arun George

Australia - New Insolvencies Data: Construction Appointments at 829 Vs 588 YoY | Credit Risk Worsens

New insolvencies data is weakest in construction sector, but also there is major deterioration in accommodations, food, retail trade. The HFD...

Daniel Tabbush

Australia Banks - New Data Suggests Weaker Profit, Primarily from Loan Volume & Credit Costs

New data is of concern for bank profit. Housing prices, business index, retail sales, suggest a worsening backdrop. Banks' credit costs in the most...

Daniel Tabbush

Aussie Shorts [10 Aug 2026]: Rio Tinto, Lynas, PLS Group, Evolution Mining, Genesis Minerals

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$1.4bn into "Metals"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.1bn out of "Food Retail"....

David Blennerhassett

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