Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Supporting our global bull market thesis, uptrends remain intact for the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM). At this point, concerns surrounding the Wuhan coronavirus have led to some market setbacks and deterioration in market indicators, however they have not resulted in breakdowns. This is true even for areas of the market most-directly affected, including China (MSCI China) and emerging markets (MSCI EM). For these reasons and, as long as there is no significant additional damage, we view recent weakness as a buying opportunity - especially within EM. We see coronavirus concerns as helping correct the excess bullish sentiment and optimism in the short-term.</p>

Supporting our global bull market thesis, uptrends remain intact for the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM). At this point, concerns surrounding the Wuhan coronavirus have led to some market setbacks and deterioration in market indicators, however they have not resulted in breakdowns. This is true even for areas of the market most-directly affected, including China (MSCI China) and emerging markets (MSCI EM). For these reasons and, as long as there is no significant additional damage, we view recent weakness as a buying opportunity - especially within EM. We see coronavirus concerns as helping correct the excess bullish sentiment and optimism in the short-term.

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BAE ownership jumped from 29.4% to 36.7% of UK funds, reaching its strongest level in two years.</li>
<li>Despite gains, BAE remains the sixth-largest underweight versus the FTSE All-Share.</li>
<li>BAE dominates UK aerospace and defence peers, but underweights may be harder to defend amid Europe’s rearmament and geopolitical tensions.</li>
</ul>


BAE ownership jumped from 29.4% to 36.7% of UK funds, reaching its strongest level in two years.
Despite gains, BAE remains the sixth-largest underweight versus the FTSE All-Share.
BAE dominates UK aerospace and defence peers, but underweights may be harder to defend amid Europe’s rearmament and geopolitical tensions.


BAE Systems: Positioning Rebounds, Underweight Widens

Investment Advisor, Upslope Capital Management

Upslope Capital Management

Investment Advisor

Investment advisor for Upslope Partners Fund, LP, a global long/short equity hedge fund.

<ul><li>Q2 saw markets whipsawed in an unprecedentedly deliberate fashion. Markets got slammed when aggressive tariffs were announced.</li><li>They quickly rebounded when relief extensions were granted and “deals” announced. Then they rebounded some more.</li><li>Where does that leave us? No one believes harsh tariffs will be widely implemented. This (lack of tariffs) is a good thing, and it is well reflected in markets and valuations. But markets are now extremely frothy.</li></ul>

Q2 saw markets whipsawed in an unprecedentedly deliberate fashion. Markets got slammed when aggressive tariffs were announced.They quickly rebounded when relief extensions were granted and “deals” announced. Then they rebounded some more.Where does that leave us? No one believes harsh tariffs will be widely implemented. This (lack of tariffs) is a good thing, and it is well reflected in markets and valuations. But markets are now extremely frothy.

Upslope's Quarterly Investor Letter: 2025-Q2 Update

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Defense Industry Index represents the performance of companies in national defense industries.</li>
<li>There will be 3 ADDs for the MV Global Defense Index in June 2025. </li>
<li>We expect one-way flow of US$505mn for June 2025, which translates to a turnover of 8.8%. </li>
</ul>


The MV Global Defense Industry Index represents the performance of companies in national defense industries.
There will be 3 ADDs for the MV Global Defense Index in June 2025. 
We expect one-way flow of US$505mn for June 2025, which translates to a turnover of 8.8%. 


[Quiddity Index] MV Global Defense Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

<ul><li>Q4 was the most challenging quarter for Upslope since early 2021 (peak of the SPAC/meme stock bubble).</li><li>Longs underperformed and shorts dragged. Month-to-date performance has been similarly challenging (approximately -4% as of this writing).</li><li>In addition to a tough market environment, I made mistakes that made things worse.</li></ul>

Q4 was the most challenging quarter for Upslope since early 2021 (peak of the SPAC/meme stock bubble).Longs underperformed and shorts dragged. Month-to-date performance has been similarly challenging (approximately -4% as of this writing).In addition to a tough market environment, I made mistakes that made things worse.

Upslope's Quarterly Investor Letter: Q4 2024

United Kingdom

QinetiQ is a British multinational defense technology company that specializes in science and engineering solutions for government and commercial clients globally. It provides advisory and consulting services, cyber and digital resilience, robotics and autonomous systems, target systems, test and evaluation, and training and rehearsal services. The company is headquartered in Farnborough, Hampshire, UK, and was founded in July 2001.

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QinetiQ (QQ/ LN)

EM Pullback Opportunity

Supporting our global bull market thesis, uptrends remain intact for the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM). At this point,...

Vermilion Research

BAE Systems: Positioning Rebounds, Underweight Widens

BAE Systems ownership has rebounded sharply, cementing its lead in UK defence holdings. Yet it remains a key underweight, raising risks for...

Steven Holden

Upslope's Quarterly Investor Letter: 2025-Q2 Update

Q2 saw markets whipsawed in an unprecedentedly deliberate fashion. Markets got slammed when aggressive tariffs were announced. They quickly...

Upslope Capital Management

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Defense Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

The MV Global Defense Index sees 3 ADDs for June 2025. This is an index family which gives short notice. We expect $500mm+ of one-way flows for...

Travis Lundy

Upslope's Quarterly Investor Letter: Q4 2024

Q4 was the most challenging quarter for Upslope since early 2021 (peak of the SPAC/meme stock bubble). Longs underperformed and shorts dragged.

Upslope Capital Management

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