Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 2nd February <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qoria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30531:1" rel="noopener">Qoria (QOR AU)</a></strong> announced a scrip merger with unlisted Boston-based Aura, to form an enlarged digital safety play under the ASX-ticker AXQ.</li>
<li>This morning Qoria released 1H26 numbers, with revenue and gross margins up 25%, and EBITDA up 68%. </li>
<li>Zero earnings colour on Aura; although its prospectus is due out in April. Qoria is down 10% since Aura's backdoor listing was announced as SaaS plays come under the hammer.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 2nd February Qoria (QOR AU) announced a scrip merger with unlisted Boston-based Aura, to form an enlarged digital safety play under the ASX-ticker AXQ.
This morning Qoria released 1H26 numbers, with revenue and gross margins up 25%, and EBITDA up 68%. 
Zero earnings colour on Aura; although its prospectus is due out in April. Qoria is down 10% since Aura's backdoor listing was announced as SaaS plays come under the hammer.


Qoria (QOR AU)'s Solid 1H26 Results. Limited Colour On Aura's Backdoor Listing

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qoria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30531:1" rel="noopener">Qoria (QOR AU)</a> IE opines that the Aura transaction is NOT fair but is reasonable and, hence, in the best interests of shareholders.</li>
<li>The IE’s Qoria valuation, on which it bases its NOT fair opinion, has issues. Shareholders should be largely supportive, as the alternative involving a dilutive raise is unappealing.</li>
<li>The IE values MergerCo at A$0.33-A$0.41, which is justifiable. If MergerCo trades in line with the median SaaS EV/ARR of 3.6x, it implies a Qoria value of A$0.43 per share.</li>
</ul>


The Qoria (QOR AU) IE opines that the Aura transaction is NOT fair but is reasonable and, hence, in the best interests of shareholders.
The IE’s Qoria valuation, on which it bases its NOT fair opinion, has issues. Shareholders should be largely supportive, as the alternative involving a dilutive raise is unappealing.
The IE values MergerCo at A$0.33-A$0.41, which is justifiable. If MergerCo trades in line with the median SaaS EV/ARR of 3.6x, it implies a Qoria value of A$0.43 per share.


Qoria (QOR AU): In a Bind as IE Opines that the Offer Is NOT Fair but Reasonable

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qoria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30531:1" rel="noopener">Qoria (QOR AU)</a>’s update on its merger with Aura outlined a US$25 million increase in the MergerCo placement, but a lower placement price (A$0.72 to A$0.40 per QOR share).</li>
<li>The justification for the revised terms does not stand up to scrutiny. It was likely required to cover Qoria’s increasing cash burn and step back from the frothy A$0.72 valuation.</li>
<li>The revised terms raise red flags, particularly on MergerCo’s cash flow and valuation. However, the risk/reward profile remains favourable, with an updated implied QOR’s fair value of A$0.37.</li>
</ul>



Qoria (QOR AU)’s update on its merger with Aura outlined a US$25 million increase in the MergerCo placement, but a lower placement price (A$0.72 to A$0.40 per QOR share).
The justification for the revised terms does not stand up to scrutiny. It was likely required to cover Qoria’s increasing cash burn and step back from the frothy A$0.72 valuation.
The revised terms raise red flags, particularly on MergerCo’s cash flow and valuation. However, the risk/reward profile remains favourable, with an updated implied QOR’s fair value of A$0.37.


Qoria (QOR AU): Tread Carefully Despite a Favourable Risk/Reward Profile

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qoria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30531:1" rel="noopener">Qoria (QOR AU)</a> provided an update on Aura’s results for the two months ended 28 February. The financial disclosure has both positives and negatives.</li>
<li>The positive is that Aura has improved its key performance indicators (KPIs) across the business. The negatives are that the D2C segment faces challenges with retention and profitability.</li>
<li>While the QOR deal valuation of A$0.72 is nonsensical, the risk/reward profile remains favourable. Based on Aura’s results, the updated implied QOR’s fair value is A$0.43.</li>
</ul>



Qoria (QOR AU) provided an update on Aura’s results for the two months ended 28 February. The financial disclosure has both positives and negatives.
The positive is that Aura has improved its key performance indicators (KPIs) across the business. The negatives are that the D2C segment faces challenges with retention and profitability.
While the QOR deal valuation of A$0.72 is nonsensical, the risk/reward profile remains favourable. Based on Aura’s results, the updated implied QOR’s fair value is A$0.43.


Qoria (QOR AU): Takeaways from Aura’s Results

<ul>
<li>On 2 February, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qoria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30531:1" rel="noopener">Qoria (QOR AU)</a> entered a merger with Aura at 1 Aura CDI per 17.2 QOR share. The implied offer price per QOR share is A$0.72.</li>
<li>While the scheme vote is low risk, the gross spread is massive due to the SaaS market sell-off and warranted scepticism about the stated MergerCo valuation.</li>
<li>However, my analysis suggests the risk/reward profile is favourable. If MergeCo trades in line with SaaS peers, it implies a QOR fair value of A$0.40, 30% premium to last close.</li>
</ul>


On 2 February, Qoria (QOR AU) entered a merger with Aura at 1 Aura CDI per 17.2 QOR share. The implied offer price per QOR share is A$0.72.
While the scheme vote is low risk, the gross spread is massive due to the SaaS market sell-off and warranted scepticism about the stated MergerCo valuation.
However, my analysis suggests the risk/reward profile is favourable. If MergeCo trades in line with SaaS peers, it implies a QOR fair value of A$0.40, 30% premium to last close.


Qoria (QOR AU): Risk/Reward in the Aftermath of SaaStrophe

Australia

Qoria Limited provides software solutions. The Company designs and develops cloud-based parental control solutions. Qoria serves customers in Australia.

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Qoria (QOR AU)

Qoria (QOR AU)'s Solid 1H26 Results. Limited Colour On Aura's Backdoor Listing

Scheme Booklet is out. Scheme Meeting is the 2 July. The IE (Grant Thorton) concluded NOT Fair BUT Reasonable, and "hence in the best interest" of...

David Blennerhassett

Qoria (QOR AU): In a Bind as IE Opines that the Offer Is NOT Fair but Reasonable

Shareholders should be largely supportive, as the alternative involving a dilutive raise is unappealing. The high-end of the IE MergerCo valuation...

Arun George

Qoria (QOR AU): Tread Carefully Despite a Favourable Risk/Reward Profile

The revised terms raise red flags, particularly on MergerCo’s cash flow and valuation. However, the risk/reward profile remains favourable, with an...

Arun George

Qoria (QOR AU): Takeaways from Aura’s Results

Aura's results for the two months ended 28 February have both positives and negatives. The risk/reward profile remains favourable. The updated...

Arun George

Qoria (QOR AU): Risk/Reward in the Aftermath of SaaStrophe

The risk/reward profile is favourable. Scepticism about the stated MergerCo valuation is warranted. My QOR fair value implied by the offer is...

Arun George

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