IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube Holdings (QUB AU)</a> has entered into a scheme implementation deed with a consortium led by Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) at A$5.20, a 27.8% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The scheme is conditional on regulatory approvals and shareholder approval. ACCC approval is the wild card and could require undertakings, potentially delaying implementation.  </li>
<li>The offer represents an all-time high, and the scheme vote is low-risk. At the last close, and for a July-end payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.8%/8.4%. </li>
</ul>



Qube Holdings (QUB AU) has entered into a scheme implementation deed with a consortium led by Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) at A$5.20, a 27.8% premium to the undisturbed price.
The scheme is conditional on regulatory approvals and shareholder approval. ACCC approval is the wild card and could require undertakings, potentially delaying implementation.  
The offer represents an all-time high, and the scheme vote is low-risk. At the last close, and for a July-end payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.8%/8.4%. 


Qube Holdings (QUB AU): MAM Consortium’s Binding Proposal at A$5.20

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube Holdings (QUB AU)</a>, a logistics and infrastructure play, has <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20251124/pdf/06sd9l6yvwkypf.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a A$5.20/share non-binding indicative Offer from Macquarie Asset Management, a unit of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macquarie-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:310:1" rel="noopener">Macquarie Group (MQG AU)</a>.</li>
<li>That is a 27.8% premium to last close. And ~14.4x FY25 EV/EBITDA. The proposal "follows an earlier unsolicited, non-=binding and indicative offer at lower value." Dividends paid will be netted.</li>
<li>Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB and ACCC signing off.</li>
</ul>



Qube Holdings (QUB AU), a logistics and infrastructure play, has announced a A$5.20/share non-binding indicative Offer from Macquarie Asset Management, a unit of Macquarie Group (MQG AU).
That is a 27.8% premium to last close. And ~14.4x FY25 EV/EBITDA. The proposal "follows an earlier unsolicited, non-=binding and indicative offer at lower value." Dividends paid will be netted.
Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB and ACCC signing off.


<ul>
<li>For November 2025, eight new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in November was ~31%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For November 2025, eight new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in November was ~31%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2025 Wrap: Qube, Forum Engineering, National Storage REIT, Star Micronics

<ul>
<li>This deal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube Holdings (QUB AU)</a> from Macquarie should really get competitive. Scarce and strategic assets  - and nothing else like it that's listed. </li>
<li>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1697:1" rel="noopener">Digital Holdings (2389 JP)</a> goes higher, "This is Japan" risk increases; but those who didn't sign up say "wait a minute, that's real money" also goes up.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wynn-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:606:1" rel="noopener">Wynn Resorts (WYNN US)</a> is at extreme levels vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wynn-macau-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:473:1" rel="noopener">Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)</a>; yet consensus indicates considerably higher forward EBITDA growth for Resorts stub ops vs. Macau.</li>
</ul>


This deal for Qube Holdings (QUB AU) from Macquarie should really get competitive. Scarce and strategic assets  - and nothing else like it that's listed. 
As Digital Holdings (2389 JP) goes higher, "This is Japan" risk increases; but those who didn't sign up say "wait a minute, that's real money" also goes up.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) is at extreme levels vs. Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK); yet consensus indicates considerably higher forward EBITDA growth for Resorts stub ops vs. Macau.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Qube Holdings, Digital Holdings, Wynn Resorts/Macau, SNT/SMEC

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube Holdings (QUB AU)</a> has received a non-binding proposal from Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) at A$5.20 per share, a 27.8% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The Board has granted exclusive due diligence until 1 February 2026 (or 15 February under certain circumstances). A scheme offer would be conditional on FIRB and ACCC approval. </li>
<li>While the offer represents an all-time high, the scarcity value of high-quality infrastructure assets could spur a competing bid from others, such as Brookfield, which holds pre-emptive rights at Patrick.</li>
</ul>



Qube Holdings (QUB AU) has received a non-binding proposal from Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) at A$5.20 per share, a 27.8% premium to the undisturbed price.
The Board has granted exclusive due diligence until 1 February 2026 (or 15 February under certain circumstances). A scheme offer would be conditional on FIRB and ACCC approval. 
While the offer represents an all-time high, the scarcity value of high-quality infrastructure assets could spur a competing bid from others, such as Brookfield, which holds pre-emptive rights at Patrick.


Qube Holdings (QUB AU): Macquarie’s NBIO at A$5.20

Australia

Qube Holdings Ltd. is a logistics company. The Group operates in divisions covering Automotive, Bulk and General Stevedoring, Landside Logistics and Strategic Development Assets.

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Qube Holdings (QUB AU)