Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The recent MPC meeting, which held the policy interest rate steady at 2.50%, increases the likelihood that it will maintain this rate at the next meeting on October 16, 2024.</li><li>The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting No. 4/2024 on August 21, 2024, voted 6 to 1 to maintain the policy interest rate at 2.50%.</li><li>The results of the MPC meeting aligned with market expectations and reflected the current economic situation, which has shown signs of solid growth in the second half of this year.</li></ul>

The recent MPC meeting, which held the policy interest rate steady at 2.50%, increases the likelihood that it will maintain this rate at the next meeting on October 16, 2024.The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting No. 4/2024 on August 21, 2024, voted 6 to 1 to maintain the policy interest rate at 2.50%.The results of the MPC meeting aligned with market expectations and reflected the current economic situation, which has shown signs of solid growth in the second half of this year.

Economic Update: MPC Voted 6:1 to Maintain Policy Interest Rate at 2.50%

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We recommend selling BJC, RBF, GLOBAL, and TCAP after their holding-period returns fell by more than 5%, breaching our stop-loss threshold, and adding DOHOME and PLANB to the portfolio as replacements.</li><li>Broad-based selling across the portfolio, amid pressure from rising bond yields, dragged the portfolio return down 1.32%, compared with a 1.19% decline in the SET.</li><li>Stock inclusion and exclusion are based on forward earnings outlooks and relative price movements versus KTX's assessed fair value.</li></ul>

We recommend selling BJC, RBF, GLOBAL, and TCAP after their holding-period returns fell by more than 5%, breaching our stop-loss threshold, and adding DOHOME and PLANB to the portfolio as replacements.Broad-based selling across the portfolio, amid pressure from rising bond yields, dragged the portfolio return down 1.32%, compared with a 1.19% decline in the SET.Stock inclusion and exclusion are based on forward earnings outlooks and relative price movements versus KTX's assessed fair value.

KTX TACTICAL PICKS - September 2, 2026 (Eng.)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The projected outlook for agricultural and food businesses in 2Q24E indicates a notable recovery both YoY and QoQ.</li><li>In particular, major meat operators, including those engaged in the swine business in Vietnam, are anticipated to shift from losses in 2Q23 to profits, with further growth expected from their reported better-than- expected operating results in 1Q24.</li><li>Consequently, we have revised our profit forecasts upward for CPF, TFG and SAPPE. While acknowledging the sector's rebound in operating results, driving up share prices, we maintain a Neutral rating due to stretched valuations, as indicated by the earnings yield method. </li></ul>

The projected outlook for agricultural and food businesses in 2Q24E indicates a notable recovery both YoY and QoQ.In particular, major meat operators, including those engaged in the swine business in Vietnam, are anticipated to shift from losses in 2Q23 to profits, with further growth expected from their reported better-than- expected operating results in 1Q24.Consequently, we have revised our profit forecasts upward for CPF, TFG and SAPPE. While acknowledging the sector's rebound in operating results, driving up share prices, we maintain a Neutral rating due to stretched valuations, as indicated by the earnings yield method. 

Agri & Food: Momentum in 2Q24E Expected to Grow YoY and QoQ

<ul><li>We maintain a pessimistic outlook on the export sector, which is displaying signs of deceleration, particularly within the industrial segment, due to underlying structural issues.</li><li>Consequently, it is likely that this year's export value will fall short of the targeted 1-2%.</li><li>The Ministry of Commerce (MoC) disclosed that March's trade balance remained in deficit for the third consecutive month, accelerating from the February figure to -USD1.16bn.</li></ul>

We maintain a pessimistic outlook on the export sector, which is displaying signs of deceleration, particularly within the industrial segment, due to underlying structural issues.Consequently, it is likely that this year's export value will fall short of the targeted 1-2%.The Ministry of Commerce (MoC) disclosed that March's trade balance remained in deficit for the third consecutive month, accelerating from the February figure to -USD1.16bn.

<ul><li>In April, BoFA's Global Fund Manager Survey revealed a significant decline in the weighting on monthly bond investments, marking the largest decrease since July 2003 (shifting to 7% UW from 14% OW).</li><li>This was driven by expectations of declining bond yields amid accelerating inflation.</li><li>Concurrently, the investment weight on equities rose to its highest level in over 27 months, reaching 34% OW (compared to March's 28% OW, February's 21% OW and January's 9% OW), reflecting a stronger global economic growth trend. </li></ul>

In April, BoFA's Global Fund Manager Survey revealed a significant decline in the weighting on monthly bond investments, marking the largest decrease since July 2003 (shifting to 7% UW from 14% OW).This was driven by expectations of declining bond yields amid accelerating inflation.Concurrently, the investment weight on equities rose to its highest level in over 27 months, reaching 34% OW (compared to March's 28% OW, February's 21% OW and January's 9% OW), reflecting a stronger global economic growth trend. 

Special Report: FMS Most Bullish on Equities Since Jan. 2022

Thailand

R&B Food Supply Public Company Limited manufactures and trades in bread products, colors, fragrances, and chemicals utilized in the food, beverage, and consumer product industries. The company also produces and sells products under its own brands, including Uncle Barns', Best Odour, and Super-Find. It is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded in 1989.

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R&B Food Supply (RBF TB)

Economic Update: MPC Voted 6:1 to Maintain Policy Interest Rate at 2.50%

The recent MPC meeting, which held the policy interest rate steady at 2.50%, increases the likelihood that it will maintain this rate at the next...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX TACTICAL PICKS - September 2, 2026 (Eng.)

We recommend selling BJC, RBF, GLOBAL, and TCAP after their holding-period returns fell by more than 5%, breaching our stop-loss threshold, and...

Krungthai XSpring

Agri & Food: Momentum in 2Q24E Expected to Grow YoY and QoQ

In particular, major meat operators, including those engaged in the swine business in Vietnam, are anticipated to shift from losses in 2Q23 to profits

Krungthai XSpring

Economic Update – Exports & Imports

We maintain a pessimistic outlook on the export sector, which is displaying signs of deceleration, particularly within the industrial segment, due...

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report: FMS Most Bullish on Equities Since Jan. 2022

In April, BoFA's Global Fund Manager Survey revealed a significant decline in the weighting on monthly bond investments, marking the largest...

Krungthai XSpring

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