Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-m-a-ceo-chairman-entice-gs-to-sponsor-an-mbo-for-recently-lackluster-raksul-4384" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:214151" rel="noopener">[Japan M&amp;A] CEO &amp; Chairman Entice GS to Sponsor an MBO for Recently Lackluster Raksul (4384)</a> I wrote that this deal was at the wrong price, and "eminently block-able." </li>
<li>Day1 it traded a lot just above terms, then it went higher, then lower. Today it's up strongly after a Nikkei article saying Baillie Gifford is unhappy with the price.</li>
<li>That's about 14% of the register who is apparently <em>explicitly</em> unhappy with the price. It's still block-able. There will likely have to be a bump here.</li>
</ul>


In [Japan M&amp;A] CEO &amp; Chairman Entice GS to Sponsor an MBO for Recently Lackluster Raksul (4384) I wrote that this deal was at the wrong price, and "eminently block-able." 
Day1 it traded a lot just above terms, then it went higher, then lower. Today it's up strongly after a Nikkei article saying Baillie Gifford is unhappy with the price.
That's about 14% of the register who is apparently explicitly unhappy with the price. It's still block-able. There will likely have to be a bump here.


[Japan M&A/Activism] The Raksul MBO Is In Danger; Bump Clearly Needed

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>MY.Alpha <a href="https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XI18.pdf?sv=2020-08-04&amp;st=2026-01-29T07%3A43%3A42Z&amp;se=2031-01-29T15%3A00%3A00Z&amp;sr=b&amp;sp=rl&amp;sig=kPsjKq9fK8jE14Jf9h8xjamls%2B24%2FOOVcFr9lijd1ig%3D" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> a 5.06% ownership ratio in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul Inc (4384 JP)</a>. The last purchase was made at JPY1,988.00, a 16.3% premium to the GS-sponsored MBO’s JPY1,710 offer.</li>
<li>The key issue the MBO faces is that potentially three substantial shareholders (Keyrock, Baillie Gifford and MY.Alpha) are seeking improved terms. The offer closes on 4 February.</li>
<li>The high volume traded at or above the offer suggests a bump is inevitable. A 10% bump to MY.Alpha's last purchase price suggests a revised offer of around JPY2,200. </li>
</ul>


MY.Alpha reported a 5.06% ownership ratio in Raksul Inc (4384 JP). The last purchase was made at JPY1,988.00, a 16.3% premium to the GS-sponsored MBO’s JPY1,710 offer.
The key issue the MBO faces is that potentially three substantial shareholders (Keyrock, Baillie Gifford and MY.Alpha) are seeking improved terms. The offer closes on 4 February.
The high volume traded at or above the offer suggests a bump is inevitable. A 10% bump to MY.Alpha's last purchase price suggests a revised offer of around JPY2,200. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul Inc (4384 JP)</a> is a business roll-up business. They do printing, and advertising, and marketing, and supply. They want to be all things to all SMEs. </li>
<li>They are pretty good at it. Revenues and EBIT have been growing at 20-30% a year for years, and are scheduled to grow 19% and 26% for several years ahead.</li>
<li>The bid is up 40% from last, but that gets them to a 30-month high. The register is very open. Lots of active institutional shareholders who have to agree. Maybe.</li>
</ul>



Raksul Inc (4384 JP) is a business roll-up business. They do printing, and advertising, and marketing, and supply. They want to be all things to all SMEs. 
They are pretty good at it. Revenues and EBIT have been growing at 20-30% a year for years, and are scheduled to grow 19% and 26% for several years ahead.
The bid is up 40% from last, but that gets them to a 30-month high. The register is very open. Lots of active institutional shareholders who have to agree. Maybe.


[Japan M&A] CEO & Chairman Entice GS to Sponsor an MBO for Recently Lackluster Raksul (4384)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul Inc (4384 JP)</a> has recommended a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldman-sachs-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:785:1" rel="noopener">Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)</a>-sponsored MBO at JPY1,710, a 39.5% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>While the process is lacking (no auction), the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples, analyst price targets and historical trading ranges. </li>
<li>The offer aligns with the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range. Barring an emergence of an activist, this should get done. </li>
</ul>



Raksul Inc (4384 JP) has recommended a Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)-sponsored MBO at JPY1,710, a 39.5% premium to the last close.
While the process is lacking (no auction), the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples, analyst price targets and historical trading ranges. 
The offer aligns with the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range. Barring an emergence of an activist, this should get done. 


Raksul (4384 JP): GS-Sponsored MBO at JPY1,710

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/338/original/2020-09-11_06-10-01.png?1599772225" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158338"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/339/original/2020-09-11_06-11-10.png?1599772281" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158339"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts: Japan Analytics</div>
<strong>BEST &amp; WORST</strong> - As the pace of announcements for the January/April/July/October year-end cohort increases,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul (4384 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-dome-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6421:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Dome (9681 JP)</a> were the best and worst-scoring of the larger companies that reported yesterday. The former is aiming to bring commercial printing int to the digital age but is yet t achieve sustainable profitability. The latter is another 'activist trap'  struggling with the fallout from COVID-19.<hr>
</div><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p><strong>PERCENTAGES</strong> -<strong>53%</strong> of quarterly results, <strong>53%</strong> of annual forecasts/revisions and only <strong>29%</strong> of interim forecasts have negative Scores.<strong> 28%</strong> of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.</p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>32 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 34% Positive / 13% Neutral / 53% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change: </strong>-1.4 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -14.9% Quarter YoY / -5.1% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -2.6ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses</strong>: 28%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>17 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 35% Positive / 12% Neutral / 53% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 71% Positive / 0% Neutral / 29% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -1.3 points</li>
</ul></div>


• BEST &amp; WORST •
Source for all charts: Japan Analytics
BEST &amp; WORST - As the pace of announcements for the January/April/July/October year-end cohort increases,  Raksul (4384 JP) and Tokyo Dome (9681 JP) were the best and worst-scoring of the larger companies that reported yesterday. The former is aiming to bring commercial printing int to the digital age but is yet t achieve sustainable profitability. The latter is another 'activist trap'  struggling with the fallout from COVID-19.
DAILY STATSPERCENTAGES -53% of quarterly results, 53% of annual forecasts/revisions and only 29% of interim forecasts have negative Scores. 28% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.32 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 34% Positive / 13% Neutral / 53% Negative

Average Results Score Change: -1.4 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -14.9% Quarter YoY / -5.1% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.6ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 28%
17 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 35% Positive / 12% Neutral / 53% Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 71% Positive / 0% Neutral / 29% Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -1.3 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​10 - Sekisui House, Kobe Bussan, Japan Display, Kamakura Sh.

Japan

Raksul, Inc. provides Internet based services. The Company mainly offers net printing, net transportation, and other services. Raksul provides services in Japan.

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Raksul Inc (4384 JP)

[Japan M&A/Activism] The Raksul MBO Is In Danger; Bump Clearly Needed

Today is the last day for the extension. It is Bump Or Walk time. A UBS customer, Keyrock, MY.Alpha, and now a Morgan Stanley MUFG account own 25%...

Travis Lundy

Raksul (4384 JP): Primed for a Bump

Keyrock has increased its holding from 8.53% to 8.74% of out. shares. Notably, on 19 December 2025, it bought 2.2 million shares (3.69% of out....

Arun George

Raksul (4384 JP): GS-Sponsored MBO at JPY1,710

While the process is lacking, the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples, analyst price targets and historical trading ranges. Barring an...

Arun George

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/10 - Sekisui House, Kobe Bussan, Japan Display, Kamakura Sh.

DAILY STATS PERCENTAGES - 75% of quarterly results, 75% of annual forecasts/revisions and 50% of interim forecasts have negative Scores....

Campbell Gunn

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Japan M&A/Activism] The Raksul MBO Is In Danger; Bump Clearly Needed

Today is the last day for the extension. It is Bump Or Walk time. A UBS customer, Keyrock, MY.Alpha, and now a Morgan Stanley MUFG account own 25%...

Travis Lundy

Raksul (4384 JP): Primed for a Bump

Keyrock has increased its holding from 8.53% to 8.74% of out. shares. Notably, on 19 December 2025, it bought 2.2 million shares (3.69% of out....

Arun George

[Japan M&A] CEO & Chairman Entice GS to Sponsor an MBO for Recently Lackluster Raksul (4384)

Since I last wrote, the stock is up a bit but there is no news. UBS AG has increased its stake. Matsumoto-san has filed another amendment to...

Travis Lundy

Raksul (4384 JP): GS-Sponsored MBO at JPY1,710

While the process is lacking, the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples, analyst price targets and historical trading ranges. Barring an...

Arun George

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​10 - Sekisui House, Kobe Bussan, Japan Display, Kamakura Sh.

DAILY STATS PERCENTAGES - 75% of quarterly results, 75% of annual forecasts/revisions and 50% of interim forecasts have negative Scores....

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/10 - Sekisui House, Kobe Bussan, Japan Display, Kamakura Sh.