Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI rebalances will take place at the close on 4 September since the market was closed on 1 September due to Typhoon Saola.</li>
<li>There will be a few announcements next week with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> early in the week and the MVIS series post close on Friday. Plus the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a> rebalances on Friday.</li>
<li>Another week of huge inflows into mainland China ETFs focused on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


The HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI rebalances will take place at the close on 4 September since the market was closed on 1 September due to Typhoon Saola.
There will be a few announcements next week with Nikkei 225 early in the week and the MVIS series post close on Friday. Plus the STAR50 rebalances on Friday.
Another week of huge inflows into mainland China ETFs focused on the CSI 300 Index, STAR50 INDEX and CSI Smallcap 500 Index.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, KOSPI200, Hang Seng, MVIS, AMFI, Jio, China ETF

<ul>
<li>We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 13 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six month.</li>
<li>Active managers could continue to realign their portfolios. Some of the upward migrations will have passive flows in the next few days and over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 13 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six month.
Active managers could continue to realign their portfolios. Some of the upward migrations will have passive flows in the next few days and over the next few months.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): Overlap Between Active & Passive Flows

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>At the same time, we cannot get too bearish until there is a break below $90.50 short-term support.</li>
<li>EURO STOXX 50 pulling back to 4100-4200 buy area. TOPIX holding above 2120 support. Buy ideas within Technology, Construction Materials, gold miners, Utilities, other defensives.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range.
At the same time, we cannot get too bearish until there is a break below $90.50 short-term support.
EURO STOXX 50 pulling back to 4100-4200 buy area. TOPIX holding above 2120 support. Buy ideas within Technology, Construction Materials, gold miners, Utilities, other defensives.


Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, 200, and 500 Indices for the December 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-insurance-corp-of-india-lic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28829:1" rel="noopener">Life Insurance Corp of India (LICI IN)</a> will be added to BSE 200 and BSE 500 at the end of this week. Below are more details on this.</li>
<li>In addition, I have discussed some trading opportunities with interesting potential index flow dynamics.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, 200, and 500 Indices for the December 2022 Rebalance.

Life Insurance Corp of India (LICI IN) will be added to BSE 200 and BSE 500 at the end of this week. Below are more details on this.
In addition, I have discussed some trading opportunities with interesting potential index flow dynamics.


S&P BSE Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 2022: LIC, Shriram Finance, Tata Motors, Dr Reddy's, & More

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Nuvoco Vistas (NV) raised around US$673m in its India IPO. It is promoted by the Nirma Group and has recently acquired Emami’s cement business.Nuvoco Vistas (NV) is the fifth largest cement company in India and the largest cement company in East India, in terms of capacity. It had a total consolidated capacity of 22.32 MMTPA across 11 cement plants, comprising five integrated units, five grinding units and one blending unit. It also operates a RMX business with 49 RMX plants across India. As of Dec 2020, its cement production capacity constituted approximately 4.2% of total cement capacity in India and 17% of total cement capacity in East India.The company’s past revenue growth has been subdued, largely owing to COVID-19 impact. Although, it has managed to expand its EBITDA margin, especially in FY20, thus shoring up EBITDA growth. However, there is nothing particularly alluring about the stock that makes it stand out versus its peers. We covered the background of the company in our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nuvoco-vistas-ipo-don-t-see-any-strong-reason-to-buy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nuvoco Vistas IPO - Don’t see any strong reason to buy.</a>In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Nuvoco Vistas (NV) raised around US$673m in its India IPO. It is promoted by the Nirma Group and has recently acquired Emami’s cement business.Nuvoco Vistas (NV) is the fifth largest cement company in India and the largest cement company in East India, in terms of capacity. It had a total consolidated capacity of 22.32 MMTPA across 11 cement plants, comprising five integrated units, five grinding units and one blending unit. It also operates a RMX business with 49 RMX plants across India. As of Dec 2020, its cement production capacity constituted approximately 4.2% of total cement capacity in India and 17% of total cement capacity in East India.The company’s past revenue growth has been subdued, largely owing to COVID-19 impact. Although, it has managed to expand its EBITDA margin, especially in FY20, thus shoring up EBITDA growth. However, there is nothing particularly alluring about the stock that makes it stand out versus its peers. We covered the background of the company in our previous note, Nuvoco Vistas IPO - Don’t see any strong reason to buy.In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

India

The Ramco Cements Limited manufactures cement, ready mix concrete and dry mix products.  The Company also exports  cement and owns and operates a private sector wind mill power generating farm.

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Ramco Cements (TRCL IN)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, KOSPI200, Hang Seng, MVIS, AMFI, Jio, China ETF

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): Overlap Between Active & Passive Flows

We see 42 potential migrations between the size categories. The small to mid migrations have outperformed. There will be a lot of overlap between...

Brian Freitas

Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

#Japan #Nikkei 225 and #TOPIX above base supports at 30,800 and 2120, respectively. We've discussed buying pullbacks to 1950-2000 on TOPIX, but it...

Vermilion Research

S&P BSE Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 2022: LIC, Shriram Finance, Tata Motors, Dr Reddy's, & More

Details on LIC's S&P BSE Inclusion Event and more discussions on potential index changes in the S&P BSE Index family in the run up to the December...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Nuvoco Vistas IPO Trading - Tepid Demand

Nuvoco Vistas (NV) raised around US$673m in its India IPO. It is promoted by the Nirma Group and has recently acquired Emami’s cement business.

Sumeet Singh

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