IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vault-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46317:1" rel="noopener">Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> entered into a scheme at 0.7629 GMD shares per VAU share + A$0.475 cash per share.</li>
<li>Genesis has long been rumoured to be a suitor for Vault because a combination of the two would create the dominant player in Western Australia’s most valuable gold-mining regions.</li>
<li>The key condition is Vault shareholder approval. The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio and the offer arising from a competitive bidding process.</li>
</ul>



Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU) and Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) entered into a scheme at 0.7629 GMD shares per VAU share + A$0.475 cash per share.
Genesis has long been rumoured to be a suitor for Vault because a combination of the two would create the dominant player in Western Australia’s most valuable gold-mining regions.
The key condition is Vault shareholder approval. The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio and the offer arising from a competitive bidding process.


Vault Minerals (VAU AU): Regis Walks as Genesis Emerges as the Winner

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vault-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46317:1" rel="noopener">Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regis-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20106:1" rel="noopener">Regis Resources (RRL AU)</a> entered into a merger through a scheme of arrangement. The consideration is 0.6937 RRL shares per VAU share.</li>
<li>The deal is largely about chasing scale rather than about operational synergies. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a>, the long-rumoured suitor for Vault, is unlikely to get involved. </li>
<li>The key condition is Vault shareholder approval. The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio and benign shareholder structure.</li>
</ul>



Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU) and Regis Resources (RRL AU) entered into a merger through a scheme of arrangement. The consideration is 0.6937 RRL shares per VAU share.
The deal is largely about chasing scale rather than about operational synergies. Genesis Minerals (GMD AU), the long-rumoured suitor for Vault, is unlikely to get involved. 
The key condition is Vault shareholder approval. The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio and benign shareholder structure.


Vault Minerals (VAU AU): Regis Resources’ Strategically Sensible Merger

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently six pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and five sectors.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently six pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and five sectors.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (20 Apr 2026)

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The ADDs/DELs for the ASX index family for the March 2026 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 6th March 2026.</li>
<li>There are 25 ADDs and 18 DELs collectively for ASX 20, ASX 50, ASX 100, ASX 200 and ASX 300. Most of them were in line with our expectations.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes.</li>
</ul>


The ADDs/DELs for the ASX index family for the March 2026 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 6th March 2026.
There are 25 ADDs and 18 DELs collectively for ASX 20, ASX 50, ASX 100, ASX 200 and ASX 300. Most of them were in line with our expectations.
In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes.


Quiddity ASX Mar26 Results: 43 Changes; Some Surprises; US$1.34bn Total One-Way Flows

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Zijin Gold International / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of this global index ended 31 December, the changes should be announced on 20 February and implemented at the close on 20 March.</li>
<li>For Asia Pac ex Japan, we forecast 266 changes (adds, deletes, migrations) for the index. Of those, 63 stocks could have over US$20m to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>The forecast passive buys have outperformed the headlines indices in all major markets and there could be some profit-taking following announcement of the changes.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of this global index ended 31 December, the changes should be announced on 20 February and implemented at the close on 20 March.
For Asia Pac ex Japan, we forecast 266 changes (adds, deletes, migrations) for the index. Of those, 63 stocks could have over US$20m to trade from passive trackers.
The forecast passive buys have outperformed the headlines indices in all major markets and there could be some profit-taking following announcement of the changes.


Asia Pac: (Forecast) Global Index Changes in March as Adds Outperform Bigly

Australia

Ramelius Resources Limited is a gold exploration and production company with exploration activities focused in Western Australia.  The Company also explores for base metals.

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Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)

Vault Minerals (VAU AU): Regis Walks as Genesis Emerges as the Winner

The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio and the offer arising from a competitive bidding process. This is a done deal.

Arun George

Vault Minerals (VAU AU): Regis Resources’ Strategically Sensible Merger

The deal is largely about chasing scale rather than about operational synergies. The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio...

Arun George

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (20 Apr 2026)

Discover six pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Quiddity ASX Mar26 Results: 43 Changes; Some Surprises; US$1.34bn Total One-Way Flows

We expected 39 changes in total and 35 of them were correct. That translates to an accuracy of ~90% for our predictions. However, there were 43...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Asia Pac: (Forecast) Global Index Changes in March as Adds Outperform Bigly

There will be over 250 changes in AP for a global index in March. The large adds have outperformed their country indices over the last few months...

Brian Freitas

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Vault Minerals (VAU AU): Regis Walks as Genesis Emerges as the Winner

The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio and the offer arising from a competitive bidding process. This is a done deal.

Arun George

Vault Minerals (VAU AU): Regis Resources’ Strategically Sensible Merger

The deal is largely about chasing scale rather than about operational synergies. The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio...

Arun George

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (20 Apr 2026)

​Discover six pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Quiddity ASX Mar26 Results: 43 Changes; Some Surprises; US$1.34bn Total One-Way Flows

We expected 39 changes in total and 35 of them were correct. That translates to an accuracy of ~90% for our predictions. However, there were 43...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Asia Pac: (Forecast) Global Index Changes in March as Adds Outperform Bigly

There will be over 250 changes in AP for a global index in March. The large adds have outperformed their country indices over the last few months...

Brian Freitas

Discover six pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.