Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>A new selection methodology will be used for the ASX index family starting from the September 2025 index review. We first wrote about this a couple of months ago (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-asx-sep25-update-with-new-important-market-consultation-implications" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a>).</li>
<li>In this insight, we present our final expectations for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 for the September 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect one change for ASX 50, three changes for ASX 100, and six changes for ASX 200. Separately, we see 14 ADDs and 11 DELs for ASX 300.</li>
</ul>


A new selection methodology will be used for the ASX index family starting from the September 2025 index review. We first wrote about this a couple of months ago (link).
In this insight, we present our final expectations for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 for the September 2025 index rebal event.
We expect one change for ASX 50, three changes for ASX 100, and six changes for ASX 200. Separately, we see 14 ADDs and 11 DELs for ASX 300.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep25: Methodology Change Confirmed; Good Performance; Final Expectations

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflect changing market conditions. The consultation conclusions could be announced next week.</li>
<li>The updated methodology could lead to 51 changes across the family of indices with implementation on 19 September. There will be a large impact on a number of stocks.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last several months and near-term performance has been spectacular for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index changes.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflect changing market conditions. The consultation conclusions could be announced next week.
The updated methodology could lead to 51 changes across the family of indices with implementation on 19 September. There will be a large impact on a number of stocks.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last several months and near-term performance has been spectacular for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index changes.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 25): Potential Changes if Methodology Is Updated

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-fields-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25109:1" rel="noopener">Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)</a>’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is A$2.52 cash + value per share of GOR's NST stake.</li>
<li>The key condition is GOR shareholder approval. The scheme vote should pass partly due to the benign shareholder structure.  </li>
<li>The offer is attractive. At the last close and for a 13 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/8.1%. </li>
</ul>


The Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) IE considers Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is A$2.52 cash + value per share of GOR's NST stake.
The key condition is GOR shareholder approval. The scheme vote should pass partly due to the benign shareholder structure.  
The offer is attractive. At the last close and for a 13 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/8.1%. 


Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI US)’s Scheme Vote on 22 September

Amman Mineral Internasional / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>We forecast 8 adds and 25 deletes for the ETF. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$6.18bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes since the announcement of the benchmark switch and over shorter time frames too. The valuation gap has opened up.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
We forecast 8 adds and 25 deletes for the ETF. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$6.18bn.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes since the announcement of the benchmark switch and over shorter time frames too. The valuation gap has opened up.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 1st (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD24.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Ramelius Resources, Bluescope Steel, Boss Energy, Coles, National Australia Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 1st (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD24.9bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Ramelius Resources, Bluescope Steel, Boss Energy, Coles, National Australia Bank.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 1st): Ramelius Resources, Bluescope Steel, Boss Energy, Coles

Australia

Ramelius Resources Limited is a gold exploration and production company with exploration activities focused in Western Australia.  The Company also explores for base metals.

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Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep25: Methodology Change Confirmed; Good Performance; Final Expectations

We have revised our final expectations for the September 2025 index review due to the deletion of Adriatic Metals which was one of our expected...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 25): Potential Changes if Methodology Is Updated

The review period for the September rebalance is done and the proposals in the market consultation will be implemented. That means a lot of change...

Brian Freitas

Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI US)’s Scheme Vote on 22 September

The vote is low-risk. The offer is attractive. At the last close and for a 13 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/8.1%.

Arun George

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up

We see 8 adds and 25 deletes for GDX. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% and round-trip trade is US$6.18bn. Forecast adds have outperformed...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 1st): Ramelius Resources, Bluescope Steel, Boss Energy, Coles

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Ramelius Resources, Bluescope Steel, Boss Energy,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

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Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep25: Methodology Change Confirmed; Good Performance; Final Expectations

We have revised our final expectations for the September 2025 index review due to the deletion of Adriatic Metals which was one of our expected...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 25): Potential Changes if Methodology Is Updated

The review period for the September rebalance is done and the proposals in the market consultation will be implemented. That means a lot of change...

Brian Freitas

Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI US)’s Scheme Vote on 22 September

The vote is low-risk. The offer is attractive. At the last close and for a 13 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/8.1%.

Arun George

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up

We see 8 adds and 25 deletes for GDX. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% and round-trip trade is US$6.18bn. Forecast adds have outperformed...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 1st): Ramelius Resources, Bluescope Steel, Boss Energy, Coles

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Ramelius Resources, Bluescope Steel, Boss Energy,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 25): Potential Changes if Methodology Is Updated