Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back in April 2022, Australia's largest private hospital operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a> announced an unsolicited, non-binding Offer from KKR at A$88.00/share. Arguably, KKR dodged a bullet.</li>
<li>RHC's share price took another leg down last week after RHC announced weaker-than-expected FY24 earnings; plus a write-down of its European/UK ops. RHC is now ~50% adrift of KKR's NBIO.</li>
<li>Not altogether surprisingly, various media sources are reporting private equity outfits are (again) running a diagnostic check on RHC. </li>
</ul>


Back in April 2022, Australia's largest private hospital operator Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU) announced an unsolicited, non-binding Offer from KKR at A$88.00/share. Arguably, KKR dodged a bullet.
RHC's share price took another leg down last week after RHC announced weaker-than-expected FY24 earnings; plus a write-down of its European/UK ops. RHC is now ~50% adrift of KKR's NBIO.
Not altogether surprisingly, various media sources are reporting private equity outfits are (again) running a diagnostic check on RHC. 


Private Equity Examining Ramsay Health (RMC AU). Again.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>TPG Telecom was formed by a merger of Vodafone and TPG in Jul 2020. The merger resulted in the shares owned by Vodafone, Hutchison and DavidTeoh, being put in escrow.</li>
<li>The lockup on those shares will expire this month. David Teoh, TPG’s founder, has sold some stock before in Dec 21 and could look to exit his remaining shareholding.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up release and its dynamics.</li>
</ul>


TPG Telecom was formed by a merger of Vodafone and TPG in Jul 2020. The merger resulted in the shares owned by Vodafone, Hutchison and DavidTeoh, being put in escrow.
The lockup on those shares will expire this month. David Teoh, TPG’s founder, has sold some stock before in Dec 21 and could look to exit his remaining shareholding.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up release and its dynamics.


TPG Telecom Possible Selldown - Founder Could Look to Raise up to US$1bn with a Clean Exit

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Global (DIDI US)</a> had serious data problems. It still listed itself, against the wishes of the regulators. Then it got in serious hot water. And it's been getting hotter. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a> announced an unsolicited, non-binding Offer from KKR (and HISTA), at A$88.00/share, a 36.7% premium to last close, however, earnings have been left bedridden by the pandemic.</li>
<li>Post-Deal, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a> will look more like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1087:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP)</a>. More engineering, less power generation infra assets, more other infra assets and more data centres. </li>
</ul>



DiDi Global (DIDI US) had serious data problems. It still listed itself, against the wishes of the regulators. Then it got in serious hot water. And it's been getting hotter. 

Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU) announced an unsolicited, non-binding Offer from KKR (and HISTA), at A$88.00/share, a 36.7% premium to last close, however, earnings have been left bedridden by the pandemic.
Post-Deal, Keppel Corp (KEP SP) will look more like Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP). More engineering, less power generation infra assets, more other infra assets and more data centres. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Didi Global, Ramsay Health, Keppel Corp, Melco, Toshiba, Twitter

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period, there could be 36 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in March.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and S&amp;P/ASX 300.</li>
<li>Completion of the merger with Chemist Warehouse in February will set off huge passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a> over the February to June period.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the end of the review period, there could be 36 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in March.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and S&amp;P/ASX 300.
Completion of the merger with Chemist Warehouse in February will set off huge passive buying in Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) over the February to June period.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Could Be More with Sigma/CWG Merger

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two changes for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and seven changes for ASX 200. Separately we see 10 ADDs and 8 DELs for ASX 300.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a> is likely to experience major index inflows in March 2025 if the merger completes as planned.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two changes for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and seven changes for ASX 200. Separately we see 10 ADDs and 8 DELs for ASX 300.

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) is likely to experience major index inflows in March 2025 if the merger completes as planned.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 25: Several Changes Likely; Major Inflows for Sigma Healthcare

Australia

Ramsay Health Care Ltd. provides health care services. The Company offers private hospital services, including, rehabilitation, psychiatric care, day, and complex surgery. Ramsay Health Care owns, operates, and manages health care facilities throughout Australia, Indonesia, and Europe.

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Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)

Private Equity Examining Ramsay Health (RMC AU). Again.

Ramsay's share price is pretty beaten up. FY24 earnings are expected to be roughly in line with FY22 figures. And KKR was still willing to pay...

David Blennerhassett

TPG Telecom Possible Selldown - Founder Could Look to Raise up to US$1bn with a Clean Exit

TPG Telecom was formed by a merger of Vodafone and TPG in Jul 2020. The merger resulted in the shares owned by Vodafone, Hutchison and David Teoh,...

Sumeet Singh

Last Week in Event SPACE: Didi Global, Ramsay Health, Keppel Corp, Melco, Toshiba, Twitter

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Could Be More with Sigma/CWG Merger

There could be 36 changes for the ASX indices in March. There is big flow and impact. The Sigma merger with CWG will result in over A$2bn of...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 25: Several Changes Likely; Major Inflows for Sigma Healthcare

We expect there to be a total of 650mn shares to buy from the ASX family during the March 2025 index rebal event. This is roughly US$1.1bn in flow...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Private Equity Examining Ramsay Health (RMC AU). Again.

Ramsay's share price is pretty beaten up. FY24 earnings are expected to be roughly in line with FY22 figures. And KKR was still willing to pay...

David Blennerhassett

TPG Telecom Possible Selldown - Founder Could Look to Raise up to US$1bn with a Clean Exit

TPG Telecom was formed by a merger of Vodafone and TPG in Jul 2020. The merger resulted in the shares owned by Vodafone, Hutchison and David Teoh,...

Sumeet Singh

Last Week in Event SPACE: Didi Global, Ramsay Health, Keppel Corp, Melco, Toshiba, Twitter

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Could Be More with Sigma/CWG Merger

There could be 36 changes for the ASX indices in March. There is big flow and impact. The Sigma merger with CWG will result in over A$2bn of...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 25: Several Changes Likely; Major Inflows for Sigma Healthcare

We expect there to be a total of 650mn shares to buy from the ASX family during the March 2025 index rebal event. This is roughly US$1.1bn in flow...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Could Be More with Sigma/CWG Merger