Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jb-hi-fi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:555:1" rel="noopener">JB Hi-Fi Ltd (JBH AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5593:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall (CHC AU)</a> could be deleted as the lowest ranked current index constituents.</li>
<li>There are three other stocks that are close to the deletion threshold and a change in the free float could result in the stocks being deleted.</li>
<li>Short interest has been increasing on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jb-hi-fi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:555:1" rel="noopener">JB Hi-Fi Ltd (JBH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5593:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall (CHC AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lendlease-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11248:1" rel="noopener">Lendlease Group (LLC AU)</a> and could be partially driven by potential index deletions.</li>
</ul>



JB Hi-Fi Ltd (JBH AU) and Charter Hall (CHC AU) could be deleted as the lowest ranked current index constituents.
There are three other stocks that are close to the deletion threshold and a change in the free float could result in the stocks being deleted.
Short interest has been increasing on JB Hi-Fi Ltd (JBH AU), Charter Hall (CHC AU) and Lendlease Group (LLC AU) and could be partially driven by potential index deletions.


MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Deletes & Capping Increase Turnover

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

APM Human Services / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apm-human-services-internation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34808:1" rel="noopener">APM Human Services (APM AU)</a> raised about US$730m by selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in Nov 21. The second IPO linked lockup is set to expire next week.</li>
<li>APM is an international human services provider, it runs 800 sites spanning 10 countries with its largest market being Australia.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



APM Human Services (APM AU) raised about US$730m by selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in Nov 21. The second IPO linked lockup is set to expire next week.
APM is an international human services provider, it runs 800 sites spanning 10 countries with its largest market being Australia.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


APM Human Services IPO Lock-Up - US$400m of Shares Come Free but First PE Needs to Clear Out

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ansell-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10777:1" rel="noopener">Ansell Ltd (ANN AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/challenger-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16870:1" rel="noopener">Challenger Ltd (CGF AU)</a> will be deleted from the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the close of trading on 16 June.</li>
<li>One way turnover is 5.9% resulting in a one-way trade of A$107m. Only the two deletions have more than 1 day of ADV to sell from passive trackers.</li>
<li>With the passive selling between 33-50% of short interest on the deletions, there could be short covering at the close on Friday.</li>
</ul>



Ansell Ltd (ANN AU) and Challenger Ltd (CGF AU) will be deleted from the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the close of trading on 16 June.
One way turnover is 5.9% resulting in a one-way trade of A$107m. Only the two deletions have more than 1 day of ADV to sell from passive trackers.
With the passive selling between 33-50% of short interest on the deletions, there could be short covering at the close on Friday.


MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Two Deletions & Other Changes

Endeavour Group /Australia / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woolworths-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:500:1" rel="noopener">Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU)</a> plans to raise around US$438m via selling 5.5% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/endeavour-group-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33512:1" rel="noopener">Endeavour Group (EDV AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Endeavour Group was demerged from Woolworths in Jun 2021 and it runs the drinks and hospitality business of Woolworths.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU) plans to raise around US$438m via selling 5.5% of Endeavour Group (EDV AU).
Endeavour Group was demerged from Woolworths in Jun 2021 and it runs the drinks and hospitality business of Woolworths.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Endeavour Group Placement - Recent Momentum Has Been Very Weak

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 18th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Ramsay Health, Woodside Energy, ANZ, Northern Star, Telstra. </li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 18th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.6bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Ramsay Health, Woodside Energy, ANZ, Northern Star, Telstra. 


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 18th): Ramsay Health, Woodside Energy, ANZ, Northern Star, Telstra

Australia

Ramsay Health Care Ltd. provides health care services. The Company offers private hospital services, including, rehabilitation, psychiatric care, day, and complex surgery. Ramsay Health Care owns, operates, and manages health care facilities throughout Australia, Indonesia, and Europe.

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Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Deletes & Capping Increase Turnover

There could be 2 index deletes in Sep. There are 3 stocks that are close to the deletion threshold. There are unlikely to be any adds. There will...

Brian Freitas

APM Human Services IPO Lock-Up - US$400m of Shares Come Free but First PE Needs to Clear Out

APM Human Services (APM) raised about US$730m by selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in Nov 21. The second IPO linked lockup, worth...

Sumeet Singh

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Two Deletions & Other Changes

There are 2 deletions and a lot of capping changes for the index. One way turnover is 5.9% resulting in a one-way trade of A$107m. The two...

Brian Freitas

Endeavour Group Placement - Recent Momentum Has Been Very Weak

Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU) plans to raise around US$438m via selling 5.5% of Endeavour Group (EDV AU). In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics...

Sumeet Singh

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 18th): Ramsay Health, Woodside Energy, ANZ, Northern Star, Telstra

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Ramsay Health, Woodside Energy, ANZ, Northern Star,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)