Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Changes to WTR-CMI. Following the completion of Livent’s merger of equals with Allkem, the new company, with the new name Arcadium Lithium plc, is now trading under the symbols ALTM-NYSE and LTM-ASX, and has replaced LTHM in our index.</li><li>WTR-CMI last week. The S&amp;P 500 appreciated 1.2% last week, while the broader Russell 2000 managed to stay relatively flat, losing 0.3% of its value.</li><li>Our WTR-CMI Index declined 1.2%, dragged down by double-digit losses in lithium stocks and the continuing decline in the value of synthetic graphite maker EAF. </li></ul>

Changes to WTR-CMI. Following the completion of Livent’s merger of equals with Allkem, the new company, with the new name Arcadium Lithium plc, is now trading under the symbols ALTM-NYSE and LTM-ASX, and has replaced LTHM in our index.WTR-CMI last week. The S&amp;P 500 appreciated 1.2% last week, while the broader Russell 2000 managed to stay relatively flat, losing 0.3% of its value.Our WTR-CMI Index declined 1.2%, dragged down by double-digit losses in lithium stocks and the continuing decline in the value of synthetic graphite maker EAF. 

Mat-Chem Notes - For the Week Ended January 19, 2024

Equity Bottom-Up

Rayonier Advanced Materials / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Portfolio strength and market weakness. At a recently held Investor Day, RYAM management highlighted its cellulose product portfolio, the company’s biomaterials initiative, and the current state of the industry in the wake of the G-P closure announcement.</li><li>RYAM also provided an update on 2023 guidance and a look at 2024 and 2027 EBITDA bridges.</li><li>Asset evaluation proceeding to the next round. Following the Investor Day, RYAM announced that it engaged Houlihan Lokey as its financial advisor to explore the potential sale of its paperboard and high-yield pulp (HYP) assets located at its Temiscaming site, as it advances its initiative to expand into higher-growth, higher-margin specialty businesses and reduce its exposure to commodity cellulose markets.</li></ul>

Portfolio strength and market weakness. At a recently held Investor Day, RYAM management highlighted its cellulose product portfolio, the company’s biomaterials initiative, and the current state of the industry in the wake of the G-P closure announcement.RYAM also provided an update on 2023 guidance and a look at 2024 and 2027 EBITDA bridges.Asset evaluation proceeding to the next round. Following the Investor Day, RYAM announced that it engaged Houlihan Lokey as its financial advisor to explore the potential sale of its paperboard and high-yield pulp (HYP) assets located at its Temiscaming site, as it advances its initiative to expand into higher-growth, higher-margin specialty businesses and reduce its exposure to commodity cellulose markets.

Rayonier Advanced Materials, Inc. - Investor Day Highlights "Specialty" In Specialty Cellulose

<div><div><div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p>We are initiating coverage of Rayonier Advanced Materials, Inc. (RYAM), a leading supplier of wood- derived products and specialty materials, such as specialty cellulosics, paperboard, and high-yield pulp, to the industrial and consumer markets.</p></li><li><p>The company is currently focused on deleveraging the balance sheet and investing in the growth of higher-value biomaterial products, while improving operations and profitability of cash generative, but slower-growing, legacy operations.</p></li><li><p>FCF generation in a weak operating environment. With 2Q23 seeing downward pressure on commodity prices, as they retreat from the post-pandemic spike, and volumes, affected by customer destocking, management raised its free cash flow (FCF) generation goal to $55-70 million from $40-65 million in 2023 in order to accelerate debt paydown, toward the 2.5x net debt to EBITDA target level.</p></li></ul></div></div></div></div>

We are initiating coverage of Rayonier Advanced Materials, Inc. (RYAM), a leading supplier of wood- derived products and specialty materials, such as specialty cellulosics, paperboard, and high-yield pulp, to the industrial and consumer markets.The company is currently focused on deleveraging the balance sheet and investing in the growth of higher-value biomaterial products, while improving operations and profitability of cash generative, but slower-growing, legacy operations.FCF generation in a weak operating environment. With 2Q23 seeing downward pressure on commodity prices, as they retreat from the post-pandemic spike, and volumes, affected by customer destocking, management raised its free cash flow (FCF) generation goal to $55-70 million from $40-65 million in 2023 in order to accelerate debt paydown, toward the 2.5x net debt to EBITDA target level.

Rayonier Advanced Materials, Inc. - Mature Business Growing New Shoots

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are within striking distance of all-time highs and we believe breakouts are on the horizon. Overall, our outlook remains bullish and we recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary, Materials, and Manufacturing.</p>

The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are within striking distance of all-time highs and we believe breakouts are on the horizon. Overall, our outlook remains bullish and we recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary, Materials, and Manufacturing.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Breakouts On The Horizon

<p>We continue to observe the market broadening out into the Cyclical areas of the economy. Our outlook remains bullish and we believe the trajectory is up and to the right. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy and Basic Materials: Ethanol, Metals, Steel, Integrated, U.S., Specialty Chemicals Small-Cap</p>

We continue to observe the market broadening out into the Cyclical areas of the economy. Our outlook remains bullish and we believe the trajectory is up and to the right. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy and Basic Materials: Ethanol, Metals, Steel, Integrated, U.S., Specialty Chemicals Small-Cap

U.S. Equity Strategy: Up and to the Right

United States

Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc operates as a performance fibers business. The company produces specialty cellulose fibers using proprietary cellulose chemistry knowledge and manufacturing processes.

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Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM US)

Mat-Chem Notes - For the Week Ended January 19, 2024

WTR-CMI last week. The S&P 500 appreciated 1.2% last week, while the broader Russell 2000 managed to stay relatively flat, losing 0.3% of its value.

Water Tower Research

Rayonier Advanced Materials, Inc. - Investor Day Highlights "Specialty" In Specialty Cellulose

At a recently held Investor Day, RYAM management highlighted its cellulose product portfolio, the company’s biomaterials initiative

Water Tower Research

Rayonier Advanced Materials, Inc. - Mature Business Growing New Shoots

The company is currently focused on deleveraging the balance sheet and investing in the growth of higher-value biomaterial products, while...

Water Tower Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Breakouts On The Horizon

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are within striking distance of all-time highs and we believe breakouts are on the horizon. Our outlook remains bullish...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Up and to the Right

We continue to observe the market broadening out into the Cyclical areas of the economy. Our outlook remains bullish and we believe the trajectory...

Vermilion Research

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