Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Late Friday, S&amp;PDJI announced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sherwin-williams-co-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15539:1" rel="noopener">Sherwin Williams Co (SHW US)</a> would replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dow-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19107:1" rel="noopener">Dow (DOW US)</a> in the Dow Jones Industrial Avg.</li>
<li>This was done to "ensure a more representative exposure to the semiconductors industry and materials sector, respectively." This will be effective of 7 November close; only four days to trade. </li>
<li>The details merit a closer look. Calculating how much tracks the DJIA should be "easy" but I have questions. That said, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sherwin-williams-co-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15539:1" rel="noopener">Sherwin Williams Co (SHW US)</a> could get exciting.</li>
</ul>


Late Friday, S&amp;PDJI announced NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) and Sherwin Williams Co (SHW US) would replace Intel Corp (INTC US) and Dow (DOW US) in the Dow Jones Industrial Avg.
This was done to "ensure a more representative exposure to the semiconductors industry and materials sector, respectively." This will be effective of 7 November close; only four days to trade. 
The details merit a closer look. Calculating how much tracks the DJIA should be "easy" but I have questions. That said, Sherwin Williams Co (SHW US) could get exciting.


Dow Jones Industrial Avg Nov24 Rebalance - Sherwin Williams (SHW) Could Get Jiggy

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walgreens-boots-alliance-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1118:1" rel="noopener">Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA US)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dow-jones-industrial-average" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22887:1" rel="noopener">Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)</a> at the close on 23 February.</li>
<li>Passives will need to sell a lot of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walmart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11134:1" rel="noopener">Walmart (WMT US)</a> following the 3:1 stock split and buy a lot of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a>. </li>
<li>Given the ad hoc nature of the rebalances and the short timeline between announcement and implementation, the stocks could move over the rest of the week.</li>
</ul>



Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) will replace Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA US) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX) at the close on 23 February.
Passives will need to sell a lot of Walmart (WMT US) following the 3:1 stock split and buy a lot of Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US). 
Given the ad hoc nature of the rebalances and the short timeline between announcement and implementation, the stocks could move over the rest of the week.


Dow Jones Industrials (INDU) Index Rebalance: Amazon (AMZN) Replaces Walgreen Boots (WBA)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-rotem-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1554:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Rotem</a>, RENK Group and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/karman-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44289:1" rel="noopener">Karman Holdings</a> will be added to the MV Global Defense Industry Index after the close of trading on 20 June.</li>
<li>Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8.8% and a round-trip trade of US$1.1bn.</li>
<li>The index has moved up steadily over the last few years and the ETF has taken in a big chunk of money over the last 6 months.</li>
</ul>



Hyundai Rotem, RENK Group and Karman Holdings will be added to the MV Global Defense Industry Index after the close of trading on 20 June.
Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8.8% and a round-trip trade of US$1.1bn.
The index has moved up steadily over the last few years and the ETF has taken in a big chunk of money over the last 6 months.


MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: US$1.1bn Round-Trip Trade as Stocks Soar

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Defense Industry Index represents the performance of companies in national defense industries.</li>
<li>There will be 3 ADDs for the MV Global Defense Index in June 2025. </li>
<li>We expect one-way flow of US$505mn for June 2025, which translates to a turnover of 8.8%. </li>
</ul>


The MV Global Defense Industry Index represents the performance of companies in national defense industries.
There will be 3 ADDs for the MV Global Defense Index in June 2025. 
We expect one-way flow of US$505mn for June 2025, which translates to a turnover of 8.8%. 


[Quiddity Index] MV Global Defense Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The amount of deposits in the US banking system are substantial in absolute terms and compared with recent periods and older periods</li>
<li>Of the USD17.4tr in deposits in the US banking system, 86% is liquid, available to access</li>
<li>Alongside concerns about the S&amp;P 500 Index or the broad US stock market, we believe it is worthwhile to keep in mind the amount of depositor liquidity</li>
</ul>


The amount of deposits in the US banking system are substantial in absolute terms and compared with recent periods and older periods
Of the USD17.4tr in deposits in the US banking system, 86% is liquid, available to access
Alongside concerns about the S&amp;P 500 Index or the broad US stock market, we believe it is worthwhile to keep in mind the amount of depositor liquidity


US Stock Market - US Banks Have Total Deposits of USD17.4tr, Which Was USD3-4tr ~30 Yrs Ago

United States

Raytheon Technologies Corporation operates as an aircraft manufacturing company. The Company focuses on technology offerings and engineering teams to deliver innovative solutions such as aero structures, avionics, interiors, mechanical systems, mission systems, aircraft engines, power and control systems, radars, software, and other products.

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Raytheon Technologies (RTX US)

Dow Jones Industrial Avg Nov24 Rebalance - Sherwin Williams (SHW) Could Get Jiggy

The DJIA (Dow30) is an odd anachronism. Price-weighted. Rebalances when it wants. No ranking system. Just a committee and some vague inputs. This...

Travis Lundy

Dow Jones Industrials (INDU) Index Rebalance: Amazon (AMZN) Replaces Walgreen Boots (WBA)

Amazon replaces Walgreen Boots in the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the close on 23 February following Walmart's stock split. There will be over...

Brian Freitas

MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: US$1.1bn Round-Trip Trade as Stocks Soar

There are 3 adds to the index. Estimated turnover is 8.8% and round-trip trade is US$1.1bn. The index has moved up a lot and stocks have soared....

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Defense Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

The MV Global Defense Index sees 3 ADDs for June 2025. This is an index family which gives short notice. We expect $500mm+ of one-way flows for...

Travis Lundy

US Stock Market - US Banks Have Total Deposits of USD17.4tr, Which Was USD3-4tr ~30 Yrs Ago

Total deposits in the US bank system have risen dramatically since our last note, highlighting the flow potential to the stock market. This is more...

Daniel Tabbush

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