Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>RBI finalized ECL-based provisioning directions effective April 1, 2027, with a four-year phase-in and minimum provisioning floors across asset classes.</li>
<li>One-Time CET-1 impact of up to 120 bps for most banks, while steady-state credit costs rise structurally particularly for lenders with large unsecured retail and SMA books.</li>
<li>PSU banks and high-unsecured-retail lenders face asymmetric pressure; large private banks with strong Stage 1 books and low SMA ratios are largely insulated but nobody is fully immune.</li>
</ul>


RBI finalized ECL-based provisioning directions effective April 1, 2027, with a four-year phase-in and minimum provisioning floors across asset classes.
One-Time CET-1 impact of up to 120 bps for most banks, while steady-state credit costs rise structurally particularly for lenders with large unsecured retail and SMA books.
PSU banks and high-unsecured-retail lenders face asymmetric pressure; large private banks with strong Stage 1 books and low SMA ratios are largely insulated but nobody is fully immune.


Thematic Report: A Structural Change in Indian Bank- ECL Based Provisioning

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Axis Bank: Axis Bank’s (AXSB) Q3FY26 earnings marginally beat our estimates on the back of strong growth on both sides of the balance sheet, reversal of tax expense (utilized to create provisioning buffer of INR20bn), and lower provisioning, offset by soft operating performance</li><li>Loan growth (18.5% YoY, 6% QoQ) was healthy, driven largely by wholesale and SME segments</li><li>Deposit growth (~14% YoY, 6% QoQ) was healthy, with CASA ratio improving to 39.6% (+49bps QoQ)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Bank: Axis Bank’s (AXSB) Q3FY26 earnings marginally beat our estimates on the back of strong growth on both sides of the balance sheet, reversal of tax expense (utilized to create provisioning buffer of INR20bn), and lower provisioning, offset by soft operating performanceLoan growth (18.5% YoY, 6% QoQ) was healthy, driven largely by wholesale and SME segmentsDeposit growth (~14% YoY, 6% QoQ) was healthy, with CASA ratio improving to 39.6% (+49bps QoQ)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul>
<li>Private banks suffered 2 brutal years of margin compression, rising bad loans in unsecured portfolios, and a deposit mobilisation war that squeezed profitability across the board.</li>
<li>
Deposit repricing tailwinds and CASA recovery support a Q4 NIM inflection, but MSME export stress from the West Asia conflict remains a credible near-term risk.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> offer the clearest risk-reward at current valuations; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)</a> reset creates opportunity.</li>
</ul>


Private banks suffered 2 brutal years of margin compression, rising bad loans in unsecured portfolios, and a deposit mobilisation war that squeezed profitability across the board.

Deposit repricing tailwinds and CASA recovery support a Q4 NIM inflection, but MSME export stress from the West Asia conflict remains a credible near-term risk.

ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN) and HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) offer the clearest risk-reward at current valuations; Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) reset creates opportunity.


Private Banks: A Turnaround Is Brewing, But Trust Is Still Being Rebuilt

<ul><li>Reliance Industries: Reliance Industries’ (RIL) consolidated Q3FY26 EBITDA stood at INR 460.18bn (+5.1% YoY, +0.3% QoQ), coming in below our estimate</li><li>APAT at INR 186.45bn (+0.6% YoY; +2.6% QoQ) also missed our estimates</li><li>The miss was primarily on account of weaker-than-expected performance of O&amp;G business</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Reliance Industries: Reliance Industries’ (RIL) consolidated Q3FY26 EBITDA stood at INR 460.18bn (+5.1% YoY, +0.3% QoQ), coming in below our estimateAPAT at INR 186.45bn (+0.6% YoY; +2.6% QoQ) also missed our estimatesThe miss was primarily on account of weaker-than-expected performance of O&amp;G businessContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Reliance Industries, RBL Bank, Sobha

<ul><li>The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its latest monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting, maintained status quo on policy rates while also retaining its neutral stance</li><li>While the RBI maintained its FY26 forecast for GDP growth at 6.5%, we believe that the RBI’s forecasts are subject to downside risks unless the system sees a meaningful rebound in bank credit growth</li><li>Although asset yields have seen reasonably quick transmission by banks (71bps on fresh loans), aggregate bank credit growth has been clocking at sub-10% over the past few months</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its latest monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting, maintained status quo on policy rates while also retaining its neutral stanceWhile the RBI maintained its FY26 forecast for GDP growth at 6.5%, we believe that the RBI’s forecasts are subject to downside risks unless the system sees a meaningful rebound in bank credit growthAlthough asset yields have seen reasonably quick transmission by banks (71bps on fresh loans), aggregate bank credit growth has been clocking at sub-10% over the past few monthsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Leveraged Financials: Transmission Underway, Searching for Growth Catalysts

India

RBL Bank is an Indian private sector bank that provides a comprehensive range of banking and financial services to retail, corporate, and institutional customers. Its offerings include savings and current accounts, fixed deposits, credit cards, loans, investments, and digital banking solutions. The bank was founded in 1943 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.

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RBL Bank (RBK IN)

Thematic Report: A Structural Change in Indian Bank- ECL Based Provisioning

RBI's new ECL-based provisioning guidelines will impact banks differently, with PSU and high-unsecured-retail lenders facing more pressure than...

Nimish Maheshwari

HSIE Results Daily: Axis Bank, RBL Bank

Axis Bank’s (AXSB) Q3FY26 earnings marginally beat our estimates on the back of strong growth on both sides of the balance sheet, reversal of tax...

HDFC Securities

Private Banks: A Turnaround Is Brewing, But Trust Is Still Being Rebuilt

Private banks faced 2 tough years with margin pressure and bad loans, but Q4 NIM improvement expected; ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank offer good risk...

Nimish Maheshwari

HSIE Results Daily: Reliance Industries, RBL Bank, Sobha

Reliance Industries: Reliance Industries’ (RIL) consolidated Q3FY26 EBITDA stood at INR 460.18bn (+5.1% YoY, +0.3% QoQ), coming in below our estimate

HDFC Securities

Leveraged Financials: Transmission Underway, Searching for Growth Catalysts

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its latest monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting, maintained status quo on policy rates while also retaining...

HDFC Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Thematic Report: A Structural Change in Indian Bank- ECL Based Provisioning

​RBI's new ECL-based provisioning guidelines will impact banks differently, with PSU and high-unsecured-retail lenders facing more pressure than...

Nimish Maheshwari

HSIE Results Daily: Axis Bank, RBL Bank

Axis Bank’s (AXSB) Q3FY26 earnings marginally beat our estimates on the back of strong growth on both sides of the balance sheet, reversal of tax...

HDFC Securities

Private Banks: A Turnaround Is Brewing, But Trust Is Still Being Rebuilt

​Private banks faced 2 tough years with margin pressure and bad loans, but Q4 NIM improvement expected; ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank offer good risk...

Nimish Maheshwari

HSIE Results Daily: Reliance Industries, RBL Bank, Sobha

Reliance Industries: Reliance Industries’ (RIL) consolidated Q3FY26 EBITDA stood at INR 460.18bn (+5.1% YoY, +0.3% QoQ), coming in below our estimate

HDFC Securities

Leveraged Financials: Transmission Underway, Searching for Growth Catalysts

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its latest monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting, maintained status quo on policy rates while also retaining...

HDFC Securities

RBI's new ECL-based provisioning guidelines will impact banks differently, with PSU and high-unsecured-retail lenders facing more pressure than...

Private banks faced 2 tough years with margin pressure and bad loans, but Q4 NIM improvement expected; ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank offer good risk...