Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rea-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:699:1" rel="noopener">REA Group Ltd (REA AU)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/news-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26926:1" rel="noopener">News Corp (NWS AU)</a> Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity. </li>
<li>
Highlights: Statistical mean reversion suggests going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rea-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:699:1" rel="noopener">REA Group Ltd (REA AU)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/news-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26926:1" rel="noopener">News (NWS AU)</a>. A target return is provided. News Corp is the majority owner of REA.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The REA Group Ltd (REA AU) vs. News Corp (NWS AU) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity. 

Highlights: Statistical mean reversion suggests going long REA Group Ltd (REA AU) and short News (NWS AU). A target return is provided. News Corp is the majority owner of REA.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


REA Group (REA AU) Vs. News Corp (NWS AU): Owner Diverges From Its Growth Engine

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A double dose of StubWorld this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rea-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:699:1" rel="noopener">REA Group Ltd (REA AU)</a>'s rolls over as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costar-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16907:1" rel="noopener">CoStar Group (CSGP US)</a> bets big on key rival <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/domain-holdings-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26033:1" rel="noopener">Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on REA and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/news-corp-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5543:1" rel="noopener">News Corp (NWSA US)</a> are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


A double dose of StubWorld this week: REA Group Ltd (REA AU)'s rolls over as CoStar Group (CSGP US) bets big on key rival Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU).
Preceding my comments on REA and News Corp (NWSA US) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: REA Group Dives As CoStar Muscles Into Turf

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Bell Potter Securities

Bell Potter

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Bell Potter Securities

Bell Potter Securities is a leading Australian stockbroking, investment and financial advisory firm that provides a comprehensive offering of financial services to individuals, institutions and corporations. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Following recent industry data releases we have reviewed our FY24/25 forecasts and anticipate a strong FY24 performance at the result on 8th August, driven by potential listings growth above REA commentary for a 5-7% range (BPe: 8%) and positive geo mix (BPe: 2.5%) from outperformance in key Syd/Mel markets.</li><li>We expect 2% increase in revenue to $1,468m (Bberg consensus: $1,443m), and a 4% increase in EBITDA to $809m (consensus: $813m) incorporating 18.5% opex growth and the midpoint of guidance for share of associate losses.</li><li>Our revised estimates for FY24 EPS (BPe: 352cps) and DPS (BPe: 193cps) are in-line with consensus following upgrades of 8%/4%.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Following recent industry data releases we have reviewed our FY24/25 forecasts and anticipate a strong FY24 performance at the result on 8th August, driven by potential listings growth above REA commentary for a 5-7% range (BPe: 8%) and positive geo mix (BPe: 2.5%) from outperformance in key Syd/Mel markets.We expect 2% increase in revenue to $1,468m (Bberg consensus: $1,443m), and a 4% increase in EBITDA to $809m (consensus: $813m) incorporating 18.5% opex growth and the midpoint of guidance for share of associate losses.Our revised estimates for FY24 EPS (BPe: 352cps) and DPS (BPe: 193cps) are in-line with consensus following upgrades of 8%/4%.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

REA Group (REA): Compounding growth – upgrade to Buy

Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

<ul><li>A global perspective on what happened overnight</li></ul>

A global perspective on what happened overnight

Dexus - The Overnight Report: Tariff Deadline Looms

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 27th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD25.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in National Australia Bank, Cochlear, Northern Star Resources, Brambles, Westpac.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 27th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD25.9bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in National Australia Bank, Cochlear, Northern Star Resources, Brambles, Westpac.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 27th): National Australia Bank, Cochlear, Northern Star Resources

Australia

REA Group Limited provides online property listings, web development and internet related technology services to the real estate industry along with providing advertising services to Australian companies.  The Company also offers online real estate search services to the Australian public.

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REA Group Ltd (REA AU)

REA Group (REA AU) Vs. News Corp (NWS AU): Owner Diverges From Its Growth Engine

News Corp has most recently outperformed its own growth subsidiary REA Group. Mean reversion suggests going long REA Group Ltd and short News Corp.

Gaudenz Schneider

StubWorld: REA Group Dives As CoStar Muscles Into Turf

REA's forwards valuations are punchy. The entrance of CoStar will shake-up REA's two decade long dominance. If News Corp materially sells off on...

David Blennerhassett

REA Group (REA): Compounding growth – upgrade to Buy

Our revised estimates for FY24 EPS (BPe: 352cps) and DPS (BPe: 193cps) are in-line with consensus following upgrades of 8%/4%.

Bell Potter

Dexus - The Overnight Report: Tariff Deadline Looms

A global perspective on what happened overnight

FNArena

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 27th): National Australia Bank, Cochlear, Northern Star Resources

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in National Australia Bank, Cochlear, Northern Star...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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