European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>CVC and Groupe Bruxelles Lambert launched a binding €51.29/share ex-dividend take-private for Recordati, with irrevocable commitments already covering 46.8% of the share capital.</li>
<li>The offer price is effectively unchanged from the original March proposal despite completed due diligence, financing syndication and shareholder alignment, suggesting limited willingness to materially improve terms.</li>
<li>At €51.60, investors are no longer being paid for deal completion, but for the possibility of a bump.</li>
</ul>


CVC and Groupe Bruxelles Lambert launched a binding €51.29/share ex-dividend take-private for Recordati, with irrevocable commitments already covering 46.8% of the share capital.
The offer price is effectively unchanged from the original March proposal despite completed due diligence, financing syndication and shareholder alignment, suggesting limited willingness to materially improve terms.
At €51.60, investors are no longer being paid for deal completion, but for the possibility of a bump.


Recordati: Control Was Never the Question

<ul>
<li>CVC proposes €52/share take-private of Recordati, implying €10.9bn equity value; shares at €48.48 reflect 7.3% spread and ~38.5% implied completion probability.</li>
<li>Offer values Recordati at 13.1x EBITDA, below rare disease peers; LBO analysis suggests capacity for a modest increase to €54–55 while preserving sponsor returns.</li>
<li>We recommend long; TP €51.46 implies ~6% upside, with ~4.5% downside and potential uplift from a higher offer price.</li>
</ul>


CVC proposes €52/share take-private of Recordati, implying €10.9bn equity value; shares at €48.48 reflect 7.3% spread and ~38.5% implied completion probability.
Offer values Recordati at 13.1x EBITDA, below rare disease peers; LBO analysis suggests capacity for a modest increase to €54–55 while preserving sponsor returns.
We recommend long; TP €51.46 implies ~6% upside, with ~4.5% downside and potential uplift from a higher offer price.


Recordati: CVC Seeks Full Control – Is €52 the Right Prescription?

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Recordati has reported positive momentum in its first quarter of 2025 results, showing an 11.9% increase in net revenue compared to the previous year, reaching EUR 680 million.</li>
<li>This growth is attributed to continued progress in both its specialty and primary care (SPC) and rare diseases segments.</li>
<li>SPC recorded a 5% increase on a like-for-like constant exchange rate basis, while rare diseases grew by 11.5% under similar conditions.</li>
</ul>


Recordati has reported positive momentum in its first quarter of 2025 results, showing an 11.9% increase in net revenue compared to the previous year, reaching EUR 680 million.
This growth is attributed to continued progress in both its specialty and primary care (SPC) and rare diseases segments.
SPC recorded a 5% increase on a like-for-like constant exchange rate basis, while rare diseases grew by 11.5% under similar conditions.


Recordati -Dual Engine Strategy Powers Rare Disease Dominance & SPC Stability!

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>EMA’s human medicines committee (CHMP) recommended sixteen medicines for approval at its April 2025 meeting. CHMP also adopted positive opinion for nine biosimilar medicines.</li>
<li>Among the new medicines, Vertex’s triple combination cystic fibrosis drug Alyftrek, Amgen’s Thyroid eye disease drug Tepezza, and Jazz Pharmaceutical’s billiary tract cancer drug Ziihera have potential to become blockbusters.</li>
<li>The Agency has recommended the refusal of the marketing authorization for Eli Lilly’s Alzheimer’s Disease drug Kisunla. Eli Lilly may ask for a re-examination of the opinion within 15 days.</li>
</ul>


EMA’s human medicines committee (CHMP) recommended sixteen medicines for approval at its April 2025 meeting. CHMP also adopted positive opinion for nine biosimilar medicines.
Among the new medicines, Vertex’s triple combination cystic fibrosis drug Alyftrek, Amgen’s Thyroid eye disease drug Tepezza, and Jazz Pharmaceutical’s billiary tract cancer drug Ziihera have potential to become blockbusters.
The Agency has recommended the refusal of the marketing authorization for Eli Lilly’s Alzheimer’s Disease drug Kisunla. Eli Lilly may ask for a re-examination of the opinion within 15 days.


CHMP Meeting Update April 2025: Sixteen New Medicines Recommended For Approval

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 <em>Int'l Compass</em> how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.</li>
<li>We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).</li>
<li>If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
</ul>


Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 Int'l Compass how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.
We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).
If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.


10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

Italy

Recordati S.p.A. manufactures pharmaceuticals. The Company researches, develops, manufactures, and markets prescription and non-prescription pharmaceuticals, pharmaceutical chemicals, therapeutic products, and rare disease treatments. The Company sells its products throughout the world.

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Recordati SpA (REC IM)

Recordati: Control Was Never the Question

CVC and GBL formalised their Recordati take-private at €51.29/share. With financing secured and only ~37% of free float needed, investors are now...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Recordati: CVC Seeks Full Control – Is €52 the Right Prescription?

CVC proposes a €52 take-private of Recordati. Shares trade below offer despite strategic control and strong fundamentals. We examine valuation,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Recordati -Dual Engine Strategy Powers Rare Disease Dominance & SPC Stability!

Recordati has reported positive momentum in its first quarter of 2025 results, showing an 11.9% increase in net revenue compared to the previous...

Baptista Research

CHMP Meeting Update April 2025: Sixteen New Medicines Recommended For Approval

Among the new medicines, Vertex’s triple combination CF drug Alyftrek, Amgen’s Thyroid eye disease drug Tepezza, and Jazz Pharmaceutical’s cancer...

Tina Banerjee

10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

Test of Key Supports: $93 on $ACWI, $47.50 on $ACWX, $70 on $EFA, 4200 on EURO $STOXX 50. As long as 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX and $DXY remain...

Vermilion Research

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