European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Recordati: Control Was Never the Question

Recordati: Minority Opposition Puts €51.29 Under Pressure

CVC & GBL / Recordati: A Higher Dose for the Holdouts

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>CVC proposes €52/share take-private of Recordati, implying €10.9bn equity value; shares at €48.48 reflect 7.3% spread and ~38.5% implied completion probability.</li>
<li>Offer values Recordati at 13.1x EBITDA, below rare disease peers; LBO analysis suggests capacity for a modest increase to €54–55 while preserving sponsor returns.</li>
<li>We recommend long; TP €51.46 implies ~6% upside, with ~4.5% downside and potential uplift from a higher offer price.</li>
</ul>


CVC proposes €52/share take-private of Recordati, implying €10.9bn equity value; shares at €48.48 reflect 7.3% spread and ~38.5% implied completion probability.
Offer values Recordati at 13.1x EBITDA, below rare disease peers; LBO analysis suggests capacity for a modest increase to €54–55 while preserving sponsor returns.
We recommend long; TP €51.46 implies ~6% upside, with ~4.5% downside and potential uplift from a higher offer price.


Recordati: CVC Seeks Full Control – Is €52 the Right Prescription?